One year ago, I do not think the reigning Outstanding Drama Series Emmy champion “The Pitt” was on anyone’s radar. Nevertheless, today I shall do my best to summarize the major 2026 Emmy contenders in the Drama categories (please see my previous article on the Comedy category here). It may be in vain, but the television awards season never ends!
Amazon: Though “Fallout” received 16 nominations for its first season, its poor winter guild performance, landing only PGA and WGA nominations despite an empty field, and its December release date make me doubt its strength as a contender this year. It will probably be very well-watched, but I cannot see it gaining traction as a Drama Series unless this season is even more beloved and talked about than its predecessor.
Now, hear me out. This is not something I am willing into existence, but something I think could theoretically happen. Whether you have seen “The Summer I Turned Pretty” or not, you know that it has aired. I have not watched a single episode, and I know that everyone hates Jeremiah. When the last few episodes dropped, it felt like it was all anyone could talk about. This show is huge and bound to be one of the most-watched series of the cycle, so I have to wonder if the Golden Globes could get the ball rolling. I maintain that the old Globes, which nominated “Emily in Paris,” would absolutely go for this show. Still, the change in membership a few years ago has led to nominations and wins that are far more aligned with the Emmys and with critics. To be clear, I am not predicting “The Summer I Turned Pretty” in Drama Series. However, there is a slight possibility that it gets a Golden Globe nomination and rides that momentum into a Drama Series nomination that I will not entirely rule out.
Apple TV: Season 3 of “Slow Horses” shocked many when it upset “Shōgun” in Outstanding Writing and won the Emmy one year ago. Season 4 of “Slow Horses” possibly shocked even more when it beat “Severance” and “The Pitt” in the Outstanding Directing category a few weeks ago, despite a somewhat slim Emmy nominations haul. At this point, it seems like a given that “Slow Horses” is here both to stay and to win an above-the-line Emmy after a frontrunner vote split. The fifth season has been well-received by critics and audiences alike, and if “The Pitt” oversubmits in writing and directing for its second season like it did for its first, I suspect “Slow Horses” can win either category once more. It may miss SAG Ensemble due to how strong the competition is, but I firmly believe it will continue to be a top contender nevertheless.
The freshman series with the most potential at the Emmys seems to be “Pluribus,” Vince Gilligan’s hotly anticipated new show starring Rhea Seehorn. But what gives me even more confidence than its pedigree is how much Apple TV+ has been promoting it. From secretive clips released every few days to a special in-person early screening for fans quick enough to nab a reservation featuring Rhea Seehorn and Vince Gilligan, Apple TV+ seems to be hoping this show will be their next big hit. After “Severance” narrowly lost the Drama Series Emmy, I suspect Apple TV+ may campaign “Pluribus” even harder (if that is even possible). Though I think “Slow Horses” is a safer series nominee, the level of effort Apple TV+ is putting into “Pluribus’s” advertising campaign makes me suspect the latter will be the priority. This is all being said with the assumption that the show will be great, but considering Vince Gilligan’s track record and the early word-of-mouth, I think that is a fair assumption to make.
Finally, most shows would be immediately discounted for a Drama Series nomination after their poor critical reception. “The Morning Show” is not most shows. The series has never scored above a 70 on Metacritic, highlighting an apparent disconnect in how critics and industry members perceive this show. Audiences seem to be enjoying season 4 about as much as season 3, though it is notably less buzzy this time around. It will likely be overlooked at Critics’ Choice this time around due to how strong television has been this year, but if it holds on to its Golden Globe, PGA, and SAG Ensemble nominations, I will keep it in the Drama Series category. After all, the field for next year’s Emmys feels about as thin as the field “The Morning Show” season 3 competed in. Jennifer Aniston could potentially win the Golden Globe or the SAG award, but considering the existence of Zendaya, I maintain that Billy Crudup remains the show’s only chance at an above-the-line Emmy.
FX: “The Lowdown” is the newest show from “Reservation Dogs” creator Steven Harjo, and it is very possible that it will be the most acclaimed drama in contention. In a normal year, it might be too small to make it in, but as a critical darling from a respected television creator starring a beloved actor, it can easily happen as a passion pick this year. I will have no qualms with predicting it as long as it lands a New Series WGA nomination and does well at the Critics’ Choice, especially if FX pushes it as their main priority.
On paper, “Alien: Earth” makes sense for a Drama Series nomination. Its viewership was solid, it has pedigree with Noah Hawley as the showrunner, and its critical reception was good. Yet despite how much it makes sense for this to be an Emmy contender, the series just feels somewhat buzzless. When discussed, it is mainly about its underwhelming finale. The Critics’ Choice will probably throw it a bone, but I otherwise cannot see this show making too much of a dent at the winter precursors. It may be generally liked, but I fear there just is not a clear source of passion to draw from.
HBO: Despite being a show set in high school and having a vocal audience of teenagers, “Euphoria” has clearly resonated with industry members across the board. Its second season walked away with Emmy wins for Zendaya and Colman Domingo and a surprising DGA win over “Severance” after all. I have no doubt that when it releases, “Euphoria” season 3 will continue to break the internet every Sunday. What I do doubt, however, is the actual quality of this season. “Euphoria” may simply be too big to miss regardless of quality, but with the long time between seasons and the rumors surrounding the upcoming season, I do think there is a possibility the conversation around the show becomes too toxic for it to retain its series nomination. However, considering the state of the field, I think I will keep this in my predictions for now.
Like “The Morning Show,” “The Gilded Age’s” previous installment competed in the notably thin 2024 Emmys season. Unlike “The Morning Show,” “The Gilded Age” season 3 has maintained a similar level of critical reception as its predecessor. Audiences have absolutely been buzzing about it, and it reached its best viewership numbers yet. Its primary support for season 2 came from the actors, as it was nominated at the SAG Ensemble Awards and received above-the-line Emmy nominations outside of the Drama Series category for its actors. So while I think “The Gilded Age” stands a good shot at a Drama Series nomination, it depends heavily on whether or not it repeats its SAG Ensemble nomination.
I have confirmed with HBO that “Task,” the latest thriller from “Mare of Easttown” creator Brad Inglesby, will be competing in the Drama Series category. The show has been a significant viewership hit for HBO and is widely discussed online, particularly for the strong performances from Mark Ruffalo, Tom Pelphrey, and Emilia Jones. I do think the show would be better off competing in Outstanding Miniseries. It will be challenging to make a dent in the winter awards as a drama series, so it all depends on whether it has enough buzz and passion several months later to pull off a Drama Series nomination. Personally, I would have it just missing currently.
“The Pitt” is the show to beat after taking home this year’s series win over the perceived juggernaut “Severance.” In a field that seems significantly weaker, it should have no trouble repeating if its second season captures the electric energy of the first. I do slightly worry that the first season of “The Pitt” was so good and so beloved that the subsequent seasons may not quite reach those heights. Still, I have faith that this lightning-in-a-bottle show will continue to be a loving ode to medical workers and the pinnacle of what television as a medium can accomplish.
Hulu: “Paradise” was nominated this year in Drama Series and also received three acting nominations. It was a big hit for Hulu thanks to its captivating premise and star quality, and it will return next year. It remains to be seen at SAG just how much passion the acting branch has for this show. If it gets nominations beyond Sterling K. Brown, that would be proof to me that the show has genuine love behind it. I think I will keep it out for now, as I could see it being a concept-driven show that loses traction after exploring beyond its initial idea. However, if the second season is equally acclaimed, I do not see why it would not get in.
Netflix: I would be a lot more confident in “Stranger Things” if “Squid Game” had not dropped from 14 Emmy nominations and six wins (including for Outstanding Actor and Outstanding Directing) to zero nominations after a three-year break. That being said, “Stranger Things” has consistently been a below-the-line player, and if season 5 manages to capture the cultural zeitgeist that previous seasons have, I think it can hold onto Outstanding Drama Series. It is probably for the best that this show is finally coming to a close, though.
“The Diplomat” is an incumbent Drama Series nominee, but it only received one other Emmy nomination: Outstanding Actress for its lead, Keri Russell. The fact that TV veteran and seven-time Emmy winner Allison Janney missed for this show is somewhat concerning and makes me think “The Diplomat” was firmly eighth and could drop out of the lineup. The show had quite strong winter precursor runs for its two prior seasons, landing PGA, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and WGA nominations each season. If this season retains these nominations, I might keep it in my lineup, but any misses would clearly indicate to me that voters have moved on.
At the moment, these are my exceedingly early predictions for Outstanding Drama Series. Am I forgetting any major contenders? Please let me know!
“Euphoria”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Lowdown”
“The Morning Show”
“The Pitt”
“Pluribus”
“Slow Horses”
“Stranger Things”
What shows do you think will be in the mix for next year’s Emmy Awards season? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on Next Best Picture’s X account.
