Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Surveying The Oscar Field: The 2017 Below The Line Categories (Part 5)

By Will Mavity

One month from now, the Independent Spirit Nominations, NBR Awards, New York Film Critics Awards, Critics Choice Nominations, Satellite Awards, Annie Award Nominations, Alliance of Women Film Journalists Nominations, and Gotham Awards all will have already been announced. Which is to say, we are officially into Oscar season. And still, the race feels undefined. “All The Money In The World” and “The Meyerowitz Stories” took heavy blows this week with the revelations of sexual harassment and abuse surrounding Kevin Spacey and Dustin Hoffman. Sony has already announced it will no longer campaign Kevin Spacey for an Oscar, which suggests that the film’s Kevin Spacey-centered makeup likely will suffer as a result. And although not due to any scandal, Clint Eastwood’s “15:17 To Paris” has also dropped out of the race, opting for a 2018 release instead of a December awards qualifying run. Finally, the first trailer for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Phantom Thread” dropped, revealing lush costumes and production design. 

*The following are Will Mavity’s predictions and do not reflect the thoughts of others at Next Best Picture*


​As “Get Out’s” buzz continues to grow, Gregory Plotkin’s decisive cutting looks more and more likely as a nominee. Acclaimed psychological thrillers historically perform well in this category (See “Se7en,” “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,” “Black Swan,” “Collateral”). And as “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” continues to grow as a potential frontrunner, its chances at an editing nom grow as well. If the Editors Branch loves psychological thrillers, they love Best Picture frontrunners even more. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Dunkirk
2. “The Post”
3. “Darkest Hour
4. “The Shape Of Water
5. “I, Tonya”

6. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” 
7. “Get Out
8. “Baby Driver
9. “Call Me By Your Name
10. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Don’t Count Out:

11.  “Blade Runner 2049
12. “Molly’s Game”
13.  “The Florida Project” 
14. “Wonderstruck
15. “Lady Bird


​​The big story here is Paul Thomas Anderson’s announcement that neither he nor anyone else on the “Phantom Thread” shoot received a DP credit. Meaning, the film isn’t even eligible for a Cinematography nomination. Meanwhile, “Blade Runner’s” buzz continues to fade. It likely won’t even break $100 million domestic. Hoyte Van Hoytema’s chances for “Dunkirk” look better and better. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Dunkirk” 
2. “Blade Runner 2049
3. “Darkest Hour
4. “The Shape Of Water
5. “Wonder Wheel” 

6. “Wonderstruck
7. “Call Me By Your Name
8. “The Post”
9. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
10. “Mudbound

Don’t Count Out:

11. “The Greatest Showman”
12. “The Lost City Of Z
13. “Hostiles”
14. “The Florida Project
15. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


​​​This category has remained relatively static since our last check-in. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Shape Of Water
2. “Dunkirk
3. “Darkest Hour
4. “Wonderstruck
5. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

6. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. “The Post”
8. “Coco” 
9. “Victoria & Abdul
10. “Blade Runner 2049

​Don’t Count Out:

11. “The Greatest Showman”
12. “Phantom Thread”
13. “Battle Of The Sexes
14. “Wonder Woman” 
15.  “Hostiles”


​​As with score, Original Song has remained relatively static. “Detroit’s” re-release could potentially remind voters of its haunting end credits song courtesy of The Roots. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Call Me By Your Name” 
2. “Coco”
3. “Beauty And The Beast
4. “Cries From Syria”
5. “The Greatest Showman”

6. “Detroit
7. “Marshall
8. “Get Out
9 “Chasing Coral”
10. “Fifty Shades Darker

Don’t Count Out:

11. “Battle Of The Sexes
12. “Ferdinand”
13. “The Lego Batman Movie
14. “An Inconvenient Sequel
15. “The Promise


​In light of Kevin Spacey’s allegations, the makeup work in “All The Money In The World” will likely be too tainted by scandal to contend in a major way in this category. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Darkest Hour
2. “The Shape Of Water
3. “I, Tonya”

4. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. “Logan
6. “IT

Don’t Count Out:

7. “The Greatest Showman”
8.  “All The Money In The World”
9. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”


​”​Thor: Ragnarok” premiered to strong reviews and large box office returns, but its VFX were not singled out enough to overcome the frosty relationship between Marvel and the tech branches. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Blade Runner 2049
2. “War For The Planet Of The Apes
3. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
4. “Dunkirk
5. “Logan

6. “Beauty And The Beast
7. “The Shape Of Water
8. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
9. “Thor: Ragnarok
10. “Kong: Skull Island

Don’t Count Out:

11. “Wonder Woman
12. “Justice League”
13. “Okja
14. “Spider-Man: Homecoming
15. “Alien: Covenant


​”Only The Brave” underperformed financially. Despite its strong reviews, it appears to not have the legs to pull off a “Lone Survivor” or “13 Hours” style sound nomination. Meanwhile, as “Get Out” maintains its momentum, it looks more and more realistic as a sound contender. 

1. “Dunkirk
2. “Baby Driver
3. “Blade Runner 2049
4. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
5. “The Shape Of Water

6. “Wonderstruck” 
7. “Darkest Hour
8. “Mother!
9. “The Greatest Showman”
10. “The Post”

Don’t Count Out:

11. “Get Out
12. “Only The Brave
13. “Coco”
14. “Detroit
15. “Wonder Woman

And for Sound Editing….

​Predicted Nominees:

1. “Dunkirk
2. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
3. “The Shape Of Water
4. “Blade Runner 2049
5. “Get Out

6. “Detroit
7. “Mother!
8. “Baby Driver
9. “Wonder Woman
10. “Only The Brave

Don’t Count Out:

11. “War For The Planet Of The Apes
12. “Kong: Skull Island
13. “Logan
14. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
15. “Coco”


​​Production Design remained relatively static. The “Phantom Thread” trailer dropped, showcasing striking Production Design, but the work didn’t immediately scream ‘nomination.’

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Shape Of Water
2. “Blade Runner 2049
3. “Wonder Wheel
4. “The Greatest Showman”
5. “Darkest Hour

6. “Wonderstruck
7. “Beauty And The Beast” 
8. “Phantom Thread” 
9. “Murder On The Orient Express”
10. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Don’t Count Out:

11. “The Post”
12. “Victoria & Abdul
13. “Dunkirk
14. “Mudbound
15. “Suburbicon


​No changes here. Once again, the “Phantom Thread” trailer did wonders to further solidify that film’s status here in this category.

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Phantom Thread”
2. “Beauty And The Beast” 
3. “The Greatest Showman” 
4. “Murder On The Orient Express”
5. “Victoria & Abdul

6. “Darkest Hour
7. “The Shape Of Water
8. “Wonderstruck
9. “Thor: Ragnarok
10. “Blade Runner 2049

Don’t Count Out:

11. “The Beguiled
12. “Battle Of The Sexes
13. “I, Tonya”
14. “Suburbicon
15. “Lady Macbeth

​Keep checking back as the awards begin to be announced, giving us more and more of a concrete idea as to what in God’s name is going to happen in this entirely unpredictable awards season. ​In the meantime, check out our updated predictions for these categories below.











You can follow Will and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @mavericksmovies

Will Mavity
Will Mavityhttps://nextbestpicture.com
Loves Awards Season, analyzing stats & conducting interviews. Hollywood Critics Association Member.

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