It’s been a busy week for us film award lovers. Today’s big announcement came bright and early for those in the Western Hemisphere, when BAFTA revealed its longlists for all categories. Much like the Actor Awards (as we must now refer to the recently-renamed SAG Awards), the BAFTAs actually have voter overlap with the Academy, meaning that these pre-nomination lists should be taken as serious indicators for Oscar predictions. The final BAFTA nominations will be announced on January 27th, but let’s take a look at what the longlists mean for our Oscar contenders, both in terms of which films had a good day and which unlucky ones might be dumping their tea into the harbor in protest.
The Brits Favor The English Language
It was disappointing but unsurprising when the recently announced Actor Awards nominations exclusively favored English-language films, entirely snubbing high-profile contenders from such well-regarded films as “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value.” But few could’ve predicted that the BAFTAs would be similarly-minded. “Sentimental Value” was still to be found in plenty of the above-the-line categories, although Elle Fanning’s absence is one of the most surprising acting misses of the day. But other than Joachim Trier’s latest, none of the other major international contenders made much of a dent. In fact, “Sentimental Value” is the only one to make the Best Film longlist. Major players like “It Was Just an Accident,” “No Other Choice,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sirāt,“ and “The Voice of Hind Rajab“ made it into Best Film Not in the English Language, of course, but were hardly found anywhere else. “It Was Just an Accident“ and “The Secret Agent“ only managed an additional mention in Original Screenplay; Wagner Moura’s absence for his critically acclaimed performance in “The Secret Agent“ is especially shocking. “The Voice of Hind Rajab“ got a Best Director mention for Kaouther Ben Hania, and “Sirāt“ can also be found in Best Casting (although notably not in Best Sound or Score categories, where it’s still very much in play for Oscar nominations), while Park Chan-wook’s most recent masterpiece, “No Other Choice,” only received the one mention. This general aversion to non-English films is especially confounding given how international the BAFTAs’ tastes have usually been.
Try Not To Act Upset
A handful of actors are likely waking up to less-than-happy phone calls from their agents. Elle Fanning and Wagner Moura are undoubtedly the most shocking acting snubs, but other performers who’ve been less prominent this season, who may have been hoping for a last-minute campaign boost from today’s announcement, are certainly disappointed. Glenn Close (“Wake Up Dead Man“), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly“), and both actors from “The Smashing Machine“(Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt) were absent today. In addition, Miles Caton (“Sinners“) is the only nominee of those who received nods from the Actor Awards to miss here, but his co-star Delroy Lindo received a mention from his fellow Brits.
A Few Small Mentions
As usual this season, “One Battle After Another“ is top of the heap here. It received a record-breaking 16 mentions – the most of any film since the BAFTAs began announcing longlists five years ago. In fact, the only places where it arguably missed were in the longshot category of Best Special Visual Effects, along with a potential second Best Supporting Actress mention for Regina Hall (Teyana Taylor is safe, of course). “Hamnet“ and “Sinners” aren’t terribly far behind, with 14 mentions apiece, followed by “Marty Supreme“ with 13. Despite a shocking snub (more on that later), “Frankenstein“ also cracked into the double digits with 12 mentions, tying with “Bugonia.“ The latter film’s tally is undeniably the most surprising of the films that received 10+ mentions. The latest Yorgos Lanthimos film has been a quiet but steady presence all awards season, meaning it’s looking more and more likely that it could receive not only widely predicted Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay nominations from the Oscars, but also a potential Best Picture nod.
As always with the BAFTAs, some films from the UK received more attention today than from any other awards groups this year, including six mentions for both “I Swear“ (including Best Film) and “Pillion,“ five for “The Ballad of Wallis Island“ (including Best Film), plus four each “28 Years Later“ and “Die My Love.” It’s unlikely that these films will make much of a splash on the BAFTAs’ list of actual nominations, much less the Academy’s, but it’s still great to see undersung films like these receive recognition this late in the season.
Going In An Unexpected Direction
In their goal of striving for gender equity, the BAFTA’s Best Direction longlist is required to be evenly split between male and female nominees. As such, there are always surprising omissions from this category, and this year was no different. Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein“) and Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident“) were both nowhere to be found despite being fixtures of most pundits‘ Oscar predictions. Panahi was also passed over by yesterday’s Directors Guild Awards nominations, although given that guild’s heavy favoritism for English-language and populist films, that omission was far from surprising. Most still expect Panahi to make it into Best Director at the Oscars, so now the question remains – who from the DGA list will get the chop?
Yorgos Lanthimos surprisingly popped up here, reflecting the BAFTAs’ general affection for “Bugonia.“ In addition, some female directors who have otherwise been mostly absent from the awards season were spotlighted, including Kathryn Bigelow (“A House of Dynamite“), Kaouther Ben Hania (“The Voice of Hind Rajab“), Hikari (“Rental Family“), and Lynne Ramsay (“Die My Love“). However, this only makes it even more shocking that Mona Fastvold was passed over for her beautiful work directing “The Testament of Ann Lee.“ In fact…
“Ann Lee“ Needs A Miracle
The Amanda Seyfried-led musical was completely shut out of today’s longlists. Its leading actress was passed over, along with the film’s score, reflecting the general apathy that voting bodies have shown toward the film all season. It missed a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, despite having an entire separate category that usually highlights musicals, and it was similarly passed over completely by Oscar shortlists. Outside of a stunning upset, the acclaimed film feels destined for a total shut-out on Oscar nomination morning.
How Do You Say “RIP“ in Na’vi?
“The Testament Of Ann Lee” isn’t the only film that can be declared all but dead after today’s announcement. Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” once seemed as if it could be Netflix’s big player this season. Alas, after yesterday’s Actor Awards shut out and only one mention from BAFTA for Adam Sandler’s supporting performance, it’s likely that it will receive just as many Oscar nominations as Baumbach’s previous acclaimed films, “Frances Ha,” “The Meyerowitz Stories,“ and “Mistress America”: zero.
After it received respectful but underwhelmed reactions following early critic screenings, “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ seemed to have bounced back thanks to strong word-of-mouth (repeat viewers have been especially laudatory of its rewatchability) and incredible box office. But after receiving just two perfunctory mentions today (Best Sound and Special Visual Effects), it seems as if this will be the first film in James Cameron’s sci-fi series to miss a Best Picture nomination.
A Dynamite Morning
On the other hand, some films that had been put to bed as serious contenders experienced a bit of an unexpected boost today. Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite“ received mixed notices, but roared back with four mentions today, most notably in Best Editing, where it’s still very much in play for an Oscar nomination. Few would have expected that it would be Netflix’s second-best performer today after, of course, “Frankenstein.“ James Vanderbilt’s World War II drama “Nuremberg“ also had a shockingly big morning, receiving six mentions, including Best Film, Adapted Screenplay, and Leading Actor for Russell Crowe. If nothing else, this is good news for its chances in the Academy’s Best Makeup and Hairstyling category, where it was shortlisted. And while certainly far from out of the running (or, flying), “Wicked: For Good“ hardly stumbled at all here, receiving eight mentions – the most of any movie not cited for Best Film. In fact, the only categories where the first film was mentioned last year that its sequel missed are Best Film, Adapted Screenplay, and Casting, and “For Good“ even picked up a mention in Best Score, which the prequel did not. Congrats, Arianators! Similarly, “Blue Moon“ overperformed with three nominations, with mentions in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Andrew Scott) raising the profile of the film, which has otherwise mostly been singled out for awards for its lead performance from Ethan Hawke. Could it sneak into Oscar’s screenplay category? Or does this just help increase Hawke’s chances to possibly win?
Only A Tiny Little Help With The Shorts
For those real Oscar nerds hoping to get any sense of direction with their predictions for the short film categories, the BAFTAs offered little aid. Only two short films that were mentioned today were also shortlisted by the Oscars – “Cardboard“ in Animation and “The Pearl Comb“ in Live Action. Still, there’s often very little overlap between the BAFTAs and the Oscars in the eventual nominees for these categories, so, as always, predicting the shorts remains the most challenging part of being an awards prognosticator.
What were your biggest surprises from this morning’s BAFTA longlists announcement? What do you think will ultimately receive BAFTA nominations? Did any of this change your current Oscar predictions? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
