For Academy Awards obsessives, there is no greater headache than predicting the Shorts. Best Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short are so tough to get a read on, with precious few precursors to help. And yet, the Academy provides a shortlist of 15 films for each category. To assist, I’ve watched all the shortlisted films, breaking them down, reporting on my experience with the shorts, and trying to get into the voters’ minds to predict the final nominees.
Best Documentary Short is the heftiest category to work through, both because the shorts tend to be longer than the other two categories and because the shorts are thematically much heavier among the topics covered here: the AIDS crisis, Israeli hostages, starvation in Africa, abortion protection, school shootings, and…well, donkeys. These shorts run the gamut, but it’s as difficult as ever to narrow these down to a final five.
The shortlist only features two previous nominees, but that’s as good a place to start as any. Jay Rosenblatt has come on strong in recent years as a force in this category, receiving back-to-back nominations in 2021 and 2022 for “When We Were Bullies” and “How Do You Measure a Year?” His films are all self-reflective, often utilizing personal home footage shot years ago. This year, his film “Heartbeat” was selected for the shortlist. Entirely shot 25 years ago, Jay trains his camera almost exclusively on his partner, co-director Stephanie Rapp, as they navigate the idea of pregnancy. They’re full of complex emotions, and we see their frank conversations play out with uncomfortable honesty. Should these conversations have been filmed? Should we be watching this? It feels like we’re spying on very intimate, real-life moments, but the authenticity is undeniable. Will Rosenblatt make it three-for-three?
The only other film hailing from a previous nominee on the shortlist is “All The Empty Rooms,” from director Joshua Seftel, nominated in 2022 for “Stranger at the Gate.” On a long list of heavy movies, this is undoubtedly one of the most emotional. The short follows a journalist and photographer as they travel across America documenting the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings, creating a memorial of sorts of these largely untouched spaces. It’s a difficult watch, but beautiful to see the families remember their kids as they were. Not only is it a phenomenal work, but it’s a Netflix film, a mainstay in the category. Since their first nomination for Best Documentary Short in 2016, they’ve only missed a nomination one time, in 2023. It’s their only film on the shortlist, so you can count on it getting in.
A number of the shortlisted documentaries this year are a family affair, with filmmakers documenting a tragedy or exploring dark chapters in their history. One that certainly could garner a lot of votes from L.A. locals is “All The Walls Came Down,” one family’s story in the aftermath of the Altadena fires last year. Ondi Timoner, who directed the 2022 shortlisted feature documentary “Last Flight Home,” documents her family’s attempt to make sense of the loss of their home and community. It’s quite personal, though the film also dips its toes into a broader political scope of the fires. Timoner has been in the business quite a while, and her connections in the documentary space could go a long way, even if the short isn’t quite as focused as others on the list.
Similarly, two shorts, “Cashing Out” and “Bad Hostage,” come from directors looking back at their family history with a fresh eye. Mimi Wilcox directs “Bad Hostage,” exploring the time her grandmother was held hostage decades ago. After expressing she was more afraid of the police than her hostage takers, it sparked accusations of Stockholm Syndrome, leading Wilcox to dig into the history of that term and the intersection of another famous example of it: Patty Hearst. A lot is going on here, but it’s fascinating nonetheless.
It’s less directly a family narrative, but “Cashing Out” was born out of director Matt Nadel’s curiosity about his father’s strange investments when Matt was growing up. During the AIDS crisis, some facing a near-certain death sold their life insurance policies to investors in exchange for some quick cash, thinking they would rather spend the money while they could instead of leaving it behind. It sounds like a ghoulish affair, investors betting on the quick death of a sick individual for a speedy payout, but “Cashing Out” showcases the surprisingly positive effects as well.
Shortlisted shorts “On Healing Land, Birds Perch” and “We Were The Scenery” each zero in on a unique aspect of familial experience during the Vietnam War, but with wildly different tones and angles. The darker of the two, “On Healing Land, Birds Perch,” explores the ripple effects of the famous “Saigon Execution” photo. The perspectives of the family of the murdered man and the perspectives of the murderer’s family converge in a story of memory and guilt, and also a surprising amount of gentleness.
On the other hand, “We Were The Scenery” follows a Vietnamese couple reflecting on their time in 1975, as they flee their home country and head for the Philippines. As tragic as that sounds, this is one of the lightest films on the list. Narrated entirely by this now-elderly couple, they laugh and recount their experience becoming extras in “Apocalypse Now” almost immediately after arriving and having to relive the war. It shouldn’t be this charming given the subject matter, but there is so much life packed into this short documentary.
A good number of the shortlisted films tackle timely political topics from a variety of viewpoints. “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” chronicles the fearless work of the titular journalist Brent Renaud, the first American journalist killed in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Craig Renaud, Brent’s brother, directs this unflinching look at the aftermath of his death and compiles a retrospective of his previous reporting from around the world. This film is presented exactly as Brent would’ve wanted, with no punches pulled and no gruesome bits left out to make it more palatable. The film is credited to both brothers, so a nomination would also honor the late Brent Renaud. This is a powerful, tough watch, but it could appeal to the Academy.
“Rovina’s Choice” is perhaps the shortlisted short that feels the most like a news report, but it’s effective nonetheless. It’s also the most immediate, documenting the effects of Trump and Musk’s dismantling of USAID in early 2025. Because of those cuts, millions of refugees, especially in African nations, have drastically reduced access to food. Produced by PBS’s Frontline, “Rovina’s Choice” follows a mother’s impossible choice as she must choose between medical help for one child and food access for her other children. It’s a tragic watch, and an urgent reminder of the murderous selfishness in the heart of the Trump regime.
It would be a bit surprising for Israel’s devastation of Palestine not to be covered by this shortlist, given how prevalent the subject has been in the last two years. “Children No More: Were and Are Gone” follows Israeli peace activists as they protest against the war in Gaza. Holding up pictures of Palestinian children murdered in Gaza, they silently protest against Netanyahu. They face horrible opposition from their fellow Israeli citizens, who call them traitors or ask why they care more about those children than Hamas taking Israelis hostage. It’s a bit more straightforward than one might expect, consisting of little more than preparing for the protests and then carrying them out, but it’s a critical, underseen perspective.
In the years since Roe v. Wade, the fight for abortion access and women’s healthcare has only gotten more difficult. “The Devil is Busy” isn’t centered on the political side of this fight or the government’s efforts to obstruct healthcare. Instead, it zeroes in on one clinic and the security guard tasked with protecting the women seeking appointments there. Facing off against hateful, degrading protestors, this incredible woman doesn’t let her guard down for a second. We see her checking every room to make sure no one snuck in, and comforts scared clients when they finally make it into the parking lot. It’s a clear-eyed, maddening, boots-on-the-ground documentary, and genuinely inspiring.
“Last Days on Lake Trinity” takes a vastly different tonal approach to covering current life in America. Shot primarily in bright sunlight and with vibrant colors, there’s an initial charm to the film set in a South Florida trailer park, despite the sadness of its impending closure. Its owners, the Christian TV behemoth Trinity Broadcasting Network, are shutting down the park without any support for the community. Mostly made up of seniors, they have nowhere else to go. Seeing the brightness in their outlook fade as the move-out date draws closer is truly painful. This compassionate short, full of humor and tragedy, is a knockout and a reminder of both the ripple effects of our failing economy and the way we neglect our seniors.
After the relative success of “Sing Sing” last year, perhaps a film like “Classroom 4” could make the cut this year. Following an acclaimed history professor’s class in a prison, bringing together college students alongside incarcerated men, “Classroom 4” dives into the history of crime and punishment in America. The conversations these students have can be awkward, especially with the clash of life experiences between the young students and the older prisoners, but it’s a very human film.
While the 2012 feature “Chasing Ice” didn’t get nominated for Best Documentary, it did land a Best Original Song nomination for J. Ralph’s “Before My Time.” Director Jeff Orlowski-Yang has another shot at a nomination for that film’s follow-up, “Chasing Time.” This short doc revisits James Balog’s important work of documenting melting icebergs. Now, years after installing the cameras to track the effects of climate change, it’s time for them to wrap up the project. This is more of an ode to Balog’s career than a study of climate change, but it’s still as impactful as ever. Even so, it’s hard for this to feel like a standalone piece, given how closely it connects to the original feature.
And now, for something completely different. While all the other documentaries on the list aim to dissect a topical event, the experimental documentary “Perfectly a Strangeness” doesn’t even feature human beings. The short observes donkeys wandering through the desert, exploring, discovering, existing. Observational almost seems too light a compliment for what this documentary does; at times, it almost feels as though the donkeys themselves filmed it. As simple as it may be, the camera’s invisibility leads to breathtaking imagery, weaving something wholly unexpected. In its experimental nature, it’s reminiscent of RaMell Ross’s “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” and something the voters could easily gravitate toward.
In Best Documentary Short, it’s so challenging to narrow down what the Academy will be drawn to when nearly every short could be labelled “timely.” First and foremost, you have to bet on Netflix getting a nomination, so “All The Empty Rooms” will likely be here. With the impact of the fires in and around L.A. last year, it makes a lot of sense to include “All The Walls Came Down.” While I wonder if Jay Rosenblatt’s “Heartbeat” is too personal and intimate, potentially making voters uncomfortable, it’s hard to bet against someone who received two nominations in recent years, so I have it in. “Perfectly a Strangeness” stands out from the pack by leaps and bounds, and I think voters will remember the uniqueness of the short. So that leaves room for a more timely short to round out the bunch. A strong case could be made for “Last Days on Lake Trinity” or “The Devil is Busy,” which both leave a significant impression. The same could be said for “We Were The Scenery.” Yet in the final spot, I have “Armed Only With a Camera,” which I think will attract voters for the dedication of the Renaud brothers. This could be the toughest of the three categories to predict, but that’s where I’ve landed. See my final predictions below, followed by my favorites from the shortlist.
Predicted Nominees:
- All The Empty Rooms
- Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
- Perfectly a Strangeness
- Heartbeat
- All The Walls Came Down
Close: Last Days on Lake Trinity, The Devil is Busy, We Were The Scenery, Children No More: Were and Are Gone
Favorites:
- Last Days on Lake Trinity
- All The Empty Rooms
- Cashing Out
- We Were The Scenery
- The Devil is Busy
How many of the shortlisted films have you seen? What are you predicting to get nominated for Best Documentary Short? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
