With “One Battle After Another,” writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson has not only landed the largest budget of his career by a wide margin but also earned some of the most ecstatic reviews of his already impressive filmography. The reception has positioned the movie as a frontrunner for this upcoming awards season, which means Anderson will likely be adding even more nominations to his ever-growing tally (he currently has 11 nominations without a single win). There are still six months to go before the 98th Academy Awards, but at this moment, “One Battle After Another” looks destined to join the ranks of Anderson’s most decorated films and could even be our Next Best Picture Oscar winner.
What stands out is how consistently Anderson’s challenging, tonally complex work has connected with Oscar voters. Long beloved by cinephiles even before the days of Letterboxd, his films have also become Academy staples. The lone outlier is his 1996 debut, “Hard Eight,” which received zero Oscar nominations but earned several Independent Spirit Awards, including Best First Feature and Best First Screenplay. Just a year later, “Boogie Nights” (released in October 1997, eight months after “Hard Eight” finally hit theaters) secured three Oscar nominations: Best Original Screenplay for Anderson, plus acting nominations for Burt Reynolds and Julianne Moore in Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, respectively. These performances established a pattern that would recur throughout his career, with actors reveling in Anderson’s sprawling, deeply specific characters and often earning Oscar recognition as a result.
That trend continued with “Magnolia” in 1999, which earned Tom Cruise a Best Supporting Actor nomination along with nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Original Song (“Save Me” by Aimee Mann). His fourth feature, “Punch-Drunk Love,” premiered to acclaim at the Cannes Film Festival in 2002, where Anderson won the festival’s Best Director prize. Despite its critical prestige today, the film became the only post- “Hard Eight” Anderson title to be entirely overlooked by the Academy despite cries for Adam Sandler to receive an Oscar nomination for his performance (a sentiment that continues to this day).
2007’s “There Will Be Blood” made up for that gap with eight Oscar nominations, marking Anderson’s first breakthrough into the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Daniel Day-Lewis won his second Academy Award for Best Actor, establishing Anderson films as fertile ground not just for nominations but also for wins. The epic period drama film would also go on to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography for longtime Anderson DP, Robert Elswit. By then, Anderson’s movies were competing at the highest level of the Oscar race, even standing toe-to-toe with that year’s Best Picture winner, “No Country for Old Men.”
The momentum continued with “The Master” in 2012. Although it did not secure a Best Picture nomination, it landed three acting nominations: Joaquin Phoenix (Best Actor), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Best Supporting Actor and his final Oscar nomination before his tragic death), and Amy Adams (Best Supporting Actress). This further proved Anderson’s unique ability to elicit powerhouse performances from his actors. The more divisive “Inherent Vice” in 2014 still managed a surprise with nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay and Costume Design, marking Anderson’s fourth writing nomination without a win.
He returned to the big categories with 2017’s “Phantom Thread,” which earned six nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director, along with acting nominations for Daniel Day-Lewis (his last for Best Actor, as of today) and Lesley Manville (Best Supporting Actress). Four years later, “Licorice Pizza” received three Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Notably, it became only the second Anderson film, after “Inherent Vice,” to miss out entirely on acting recognition when receiving any other Academy Award nominations. Alana Haim came close to a Best Actress nomination, and Bradley Cooper’s supporting turn was also in the conversation all season, but both ultimately fell short.
That brings us to 2025’s “One Battle After Another.” Anderson’s track record makes it clear this film will be a major Oscar player. Currently, the Next Best Picture team has it set to receive nine nominations, but it could potentially receive as many as twelve. Best Picture and Director seem like near-certainties, but the acting categories, which have historically been Anderson’s strongest showing, may be where it shines brightest. Leonardo DiCaprio is in the Best Actor race, though the field is crowded. Supporting categories, however, look especially promising. Chase Infiniti’s breakout performance as Willa feels like a strong bet for Best Supporting Actress, with Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall also in contention. Sean Penn seems almost certain to secure a Best Supporting Actor nomination. If the film manages four acting nods, it would set a new benchmark for Anderson’s career.
Time will tell how far “One Battle After Another” ultimately goes. Still, history suggests it will continue Anderson’s extraordinary Oscar run and may even result in a grand culmination for his entire career, just as it did for Christopher Nolan with “Oppenheimer” two years ago. Even divisive works like “The Master” have cleaned up in the acting categories, and his ability to unleash unforgettable performances remains unmatched. Pair that with his writing, direction, and the impeccable craft on display, the film’s best day looks like it’s going to be…
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Casting
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Sound
Given the rapturous reception so far (98% on Rotten Tomatoes, 4.5 on Letterboxd, and a 95 on MetaCritic), Oscar recognition is one battle Anderson will not have to worry about losing this awards season.
What do you think, though? How many Oscar nominations do you think “One Battle After Another” will receive? Are you planning to see the film this weekend in theaters? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
