For the last several weeks, “Emilia Pérez” musical standout Zoe Saldana had been locked as the Best Supporting Actress frontrunner. Yet in the previous week or two, another supposed musical standout in “Wicked” Ariana Grande, has also been hyped up as a potential nominee. While it still seems improbable for the moment that Grande could win competitively and challenge Saldana, she would be in the same favorable boat as Saldana – and like several other recent Best Supporting Actress winners – if “Wicked” gets into Best Picture.
Musicals haven’t had any luck winning Best Picture since “Chicago” did it in 2002. Yet since then, almost every musical that actually has an impact on Oscar season has walked away with Best Supporting Actress as a consolation prize. As long as someone is nominated in that category for a Best Picture musical nominee – unlike Penelope Cruz for “Nine,” Meryl Streep for “Into the Woods,” and Danielle Brooks for “The Color Purple” – they are put on the fast track to win while their movies fall apart elsewhere. And even in another major exception like “La La Land,” Emma Stone won Best Actress right before the movie’s last-second Best Picture loss.
As such, if both Saldana and Grande wind up testing this theory, these are the examples they will hope to match.
2021: Ariana DeBose – “West Side Story”
The most recent example of a musical winning Best Supporting Actress as a collective Oscar was for the remake of a musical that won both Best Supporting Actress, Best Picture, and much more. But for whatever reason, Steven Spielberg’s version of “West Side Story” couldn’t repeat history everywhere else; it still repeated it with DeBose winning just like Rita Moreno did 60+ years earlier.
It was also the most recent example of another formidable Oscar season musical trend – one where it wins Best Supporting Actress while its actual lead actress doesn’t get nominated. Even as DeBose pulled away from the Supporting Actress field, lead actress Rachel Zegler faded from the Best Actress field, despite how no nominees that year were in a Best Picture nominee like she was.
This could be a forthcoming parallel for “Wicked,” as Grande is being surged into the field by pundits while lead actress Cynthia Erivo is still regarded as a long-shot nominee. But it is a different story thus far for “Emilia Pérez,” as Saldana is still touted as the Best Supporting Actress favorite, all while lead actress Karla Sofia Gascon is still considered a safe Best Actress nominee. However, if divisiveness and backlash take a further toll on “Emilia Pérez” over time, a newcomer like Gascon might pay for it as a surprise snub, while a more experienced blockbuster lead/award season breakthrough like Saldana is protected.
That might be a surprising, highly debated outcome for a number of reasons, but it is technically nothing a recent Oscar season musical contender hasn’t experienced before.
2012: Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
Unlike both Saldana and Grande, Hathaway mainly was in just one act of “Les Miserables.” Nonetheless, like other Oscar-winning musical performers, one big song was all Hathaway needed to lock up the win, in this case, “I Dreamed a Dream.”
That might not apply as an example for Saldana or Grande, as their major solo numbers aren’t massive tearjerkers sung by a dying woman like Hathaway’s was. “I Dreamed a Dream” was also an iconic Broadway number for decades beforehand, whereas Saldana’s songs are original creations, and Grande’s big iconic Broadway numbers like “Popular” are 100 times more comedic.
Hathaway was an established star who’d already been in blockbusters and Oscar contenders before having a personal award season breakout in 2012, which is a model Saldana is following closely right now. Grande is much more of a near-complete newcomer to both Oscar season and the big screen, although her level of stardom goes beyond Saldana’s or even 2012-era Hathaway.
Unlike “West Side Story” and others, Hathaway didn’t have a lead actress to overshadow in “Les Miserables,” although Hugh Jackman did get into Best Actor. Yet in that example as well, the lead in a nominated musical never had a chance to win, and neither did the movie as a whole, so it settled for Best Supporting Actress. Given that “Les Miserables” was a Universal-produced holiday musical hit based on one of the biggest Broadway hits of all time, that is certainly a model “Wicked” can aspire to – all while “Emilia Pérez” can only make an impact on the Netflix top 10 for a few weeks.
Yet Hathaway was a wire-to-wire favorite from the start, which is a path Saldana might still be on the way to matching herself, barring any further surprises.
2005: Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
This is an exception that proves the rule of sorts since “Dreamgirls” is the only musical on this list that didn’t get into Best Picture – whether because of the five-film field or other reasons – yet it still cruised to a Best Supporting Actress win for Hudson anyway.
Hudson’s case may not apply as much to Saldana or Grande for the same reason Hathaway may not since Hudson also won the Oscar mainly for one massive, tear-jerking iconic number. In her case, it was the end of Act 1 plea, “And I Am Telling You,” – and in the case of “Wicked,” the big end of Act 1 iconic song belongs to Erivo for “Defying Gravity,” with Grande merely as backup.
Like Grande, however, Hudson broke in as a newcomer to the big screen after starting out in pop music – although Hudson did so as an “American Idol” runner-up and not as a chart-topping pop star. Yet Hudson’s debut was so powerful that almost no one noted the performance of actual lead actress Beyonce, and her coattails weren’t even big enough for Eddie Murphy to match her as a Best Supporting Actor winner too.
“Dreamgirls” didn’t need to make Best Picture for Hudson to dominate her own category. However, if there’s any chance for Grande actually to threaten Saldana for the win, “Wicked” will have to make Best Picture in a 10-film field to help her. Saldana is already benefiting from “Emilia Pérez” being all but locked as a Best Picture nominee – and may not suffer even if her film drops off the Best Picture top five, just like Hudson ultimately didn’t.
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones – “Chicago”
Since 2002, Best Supporting Actress has been a consolation prize for musicals that fall short of Best Picture. Yet it was still reserved for the last musical that won it all anyway.
Like Hathaway and Saldana, Zeta-Jones was an established star and celebrity who made an awards season breakthrough in a musical. Unlike Hathaway and Hudson, and unlike Saldana and Grande, Zeta-Jones’ signature number was at the very beginning of “Chicago.” And unlike all the examples above, “Chicago” was strong enough to get a Best Actress nomination along with a Best Supporting Actress winner – although Renee Zellweger couldn’t match Zeta-Jones with her own win, unlike in the movie.
If “Emilia Pérez” survives the social media and cultural trials ahead of it and stays win-competitive for Best Picture, this could be its path to victory too – with a Saldana win, a Gascon nomination and loss, and some below-the-line wins along with it to complete a Best Picture package. “Wicked” getting that far still seems much less possible, although getting nominated with below-the-line wins and a Supporting Actress contender could be plausible as a first step soon.
The more probable scenario is this is like any other season with a musical in the mix, or in this case, perhaps two such musicals. For one reason or another, musicals can’t break through as a Best Picture winners anymore – but for one reason or another, their Best Supporting Actress standouts are just about perfect as a way to honor them anyway, as long as they are from Best Picture nominees. Yet in a year where there might wind up being two of them, and in a year where non-musical Best Supporting Actress contenders like Danielle Deadwyler, Saoirse Ronan, Felicity Jones, and Saldana’s “Emilia Pérez” co-star Selena Gomez have their own drawbacks, this might become the biggest test of that theory to date.
Once “Emilia Pérez” comes to Netflix on November 13th and “Wicked” finally reaches theatrical audiences on November 22nd, Best Supporting Actress could turn into one season-long riff-off.
So what do you think? Who do you think will be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at this year’s Academy Awards? Have you seen “Emilia Pérez” or “Wicked” yet? If so, what did you think? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
