By Ryan C. Showers
It is quite common for an actor or two per year to waltz through award season as the uncontested victor, winning all the major televised awards, the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, and ultimately, Academy Award. Undeniable and overwhelming performances like Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight,” Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables,” and Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine” are good examples. Last year, Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney won their respective acting category at all five major award shows. This was the first time in history there was no divergence and all four categories had the same winners among the five shows. It’s odd because each of the award shows has a different voting bloc with their own preferences, patterns of voting, and ideological views, therefore some variety makes more sense than categorical uniformity.
The Golden Globes have a reputation of being drawn to movie star industry names, dramedies, and films with bolder tones. They have their finger on the pulse of pop culture and evaluate the merit of the projects and artists at hand. The Critics Choice Awards go for the obvious Oscar bait with sprinkles of artistic elitism here and there. SAG voters (because there are so many of them) typically represent the masses through nominating popular actors and films that come out earlier in the year or movies that are easily accessible, say on streaming services like Netflix. With SAG, it’s really about numbers and getting a large number of voters to see films and nominate them. The BAFTAs, oftentimes skewing their picks to favor British projects or films with high-profile British actors, produce the most high-class and adult round of nominees rather than nominations that represent more unique American experiences.
Though it’s likely Bradley Cooper will win all five awards this year for “A Star Is Born” for Best Actor, I don’t think the trend continues across all four categories. Lady Gaga has the character and performance that could run the duration of the season, but she could at least lose the BAFTA to Olivia Colman, whose film is bound to be a BAFTA success story. And though Mahershala Ali is out in front for “Green Book,” don’t be surprised if Richard E. Grant in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” gives him a run for his money for one or two Best Supporting Actor trophies. For instance, I’m not sure if the Critics Choice and BAFTA will entirely go for “Green Book” in the same way Golden Globes, SAG, and the Academy will.
On the other hand, Best Supporting Actress is the race that feels the most wide open. For a long time, most of us had Amy Adams in “Vice” plugged in as the default frontrunner, largely due to the fact that she has not won yet despite many nominations and a vastly accomplished resume. Since undergoing the film festivals, Adams’ prominence in predictions has simmered. Many were expecting Olivia Colman to be the leader of the category for “The Favourite,” but it was announced recently that she would be competing in Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress.
Now, all eyes are on Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk.” The three-time Emmy winner is one of the most respected women within the industry who could very well end up winning the Oscar, but I’m not so sure she will win every precursor. In fact, I’m getting the sense we could see several different winners among the five televised shows. I see her trajectory to a win on a similar path as Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight.”
Here are the top ten contending performances for Best Supporting Actress at this point:
Amy Adams – Vice*
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows
Claire Foy – First Man*
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased*
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk*
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux
Margot Robbie – Mary Queen Of Scots*
Emma Stone – The Favourite*
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite*
There are more heavyweight Best Supporting Actress contenders this year than there are slots to be nominated at the five award shows. I would argue it’s down to seven* of ten above. The way this aspect of the season develops will be a game of musical chairs until the music finally stops on Oscar nomination morning. Because each has their own tastes and sensibilities, I would argue we are going to see different versions of the women listed above at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and Oscar.
BROADCAST CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Regina King
Amy Adams
Claire Foy
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
Nicole Kidman
Margot Robbie
The Critics Choice are the easiest because the group of nominees is not limited to five slots. On average, I would say six nominees is an adequate number to predict, but last year, for instance, they opted for seven Best Supporting Actress nominees. This group has the best chance to see all the competing films, therefore they’ve seen more obscure films and performances that could surprise in the nomination announcement. (Think Vera Farmiga in “Nothing But The Truth” for an example of that.) The Critics Choice voters usually have a reputation of trying to “predict” what the Oscars will nominate, so there will be obvious nominations, too. And that is exactly is why I predict King will win here because she has the narrative of being the early frontrunner that everyone admires as an artist. If anyone misses, my guess is Robbie, and that’s only because the quality of her work and film is still unknown.
GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS
Nicole Kidman
Amy Adams
(Emma Stone)
Rachel Weisz
Natalie Portman
Regina King
Claire Foy
Margot Robbie
As mentioned before, the Hollywood Foreign Press is drawn to A-list actors in extravagant roles. They also love Adams and Kidman, who will both probably receive double nominations at this year’s ceremony: Adams for “Sharp Objects” in Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries, which she will probably win handily, thus less competitive here, and Kidman for “Destroyer” in Best Actress Drama. I see an opening for Kidman to win the Golden Globe for “Boy Erased” in a similar way as Kate Winslet for “Steve Jobs” a few years ago, where the beloved veteran wins a race with no clear favorite. Also, when I say the Hollywood Foreign Press loves her, they really love her. She has 12 career nominations from the small pool of voters, which is more than actresses like Winslet or Cate Blanchett who have twice as many Oscar nominations. Contrasting that, I’m not sure of the passion the Hollywood Foreign Press may have for Regina King who only has one other Globe nomination for “American Crime.” The HFPA opted to skip over Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight” two years ago, which says something to their taste and the type of performances they like to reward. In addition, I see the Globe voters enjoying Portman’s work in “Vox Lux.” With her general popularity and showstopping work in the film, I could see this being their random nomination of the year. I have Stone here, though I anticipate Fox Searchlight will push her into the Best Actress Comedy/Musical category.
SAG AWARDS
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
Claire Foy
Marina de Tavira
Nicole Kidman
Amy Adams
Margot Robbie
Going along with the Mahershala Ali in “Moonlight” comparison, his greatest stride in that Best Supporting Actor race was winning the SAG. This is the largest and most diverse group of voters on the entire award circuit. Considering how much the industry respects her, I imagine this will be an easy triumph for King and her campaign. The SAG ensemble winner could likely be “The Favourite,” so look for Stone and Weisz to be safely in the lineup. Foy’s best chance at pacing through the season is getting this nomination, which should be painless considering she’s won twice at SAG for “The Crown” and “First Man” is an earlier, wide-release film, so plenty will have seen it to check her name off. Netflix has a history of doing well at SAG, so I am putting Marina de Tavira in as one of the SAG nominees who will not necessarily translate to the Oscar lineup. It’s likely that “Vice” will be too much of a late-breaking film to gain traction with this group of voters in time, so Adams is vulnerable to be snubbed in a similar way as she was for “American Hustle” in 2013. Kidman is also a possibility here, but there’s no driving force that puts her ahead of others with these particular voters.
BAFTA AWARDS
Rachel Weisz
Amy Adams
Emma Stone
Claire Foy
Margot Robbie
Nicole Kidman
Regina King
It may surprise some to see Weisz in the lead, but listen: BAFTA is going to go nuts over “The Favourite.” I’m predicting there to be a “The King’s Speech”-style sweep. Stone just won the BAFTA for “La La Land,” so she probably won’t win a second so soon after. The year Weisz won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for “The Constant Gardener,” the BAFTAs put her in Best Actress at their show, where she lost to Reese Witherspoon for “Walk The Line”. Therefore, one of the most accomplished British actresses working in Hollywood has never won a BAFTA award. This is the perfect opportunity to rectify that statistic, just like Helena Bonham Carter for “The King’s Speech.” If Robbie shows up anywhere this season for “Mary Queen Of Scots,” expect it here. Also note: the BAFTAs did not opt for Ali in “Moonlight,” but rather Dev Patel for “Lion” (a more BAFTA-leaning film and performance), so the same could happen to King. And if they don’t go for Weisz, I expect Adams wins. Her film will be one of the last seen by voters, which gives her the recent impression benefit, and she has six BAFTA nominations already (even one for “Big Eyes” – voting for that film is true affection for an artist). It seems like a logical move that BAFTA would be drawn to her if not Weisz.
OSCARS
Amy Adams
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
Nicole Kidman
Claire Foy
Marina de Tavira
If Adams does indeed take the BAFTA for “Vice,” after giving Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG speeches for “Sharp Objects” all season long, combined with how fractured the wins at the different precursors may be, she may have enough momentum to peak and cross the finish line at the right time. Or the Academy will choose to wait until next year to reward her in Best Actress for “The Woman In The Window.” Otherwise, SAG and Critics Choice will carry Regina King to an Academy Award with a similar precursor win set as Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight” and Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years A Slave.” I feel confident both actresses from “The Favourite” will be nominated, as well. The love for that film is not going to make voters choose one over the other.
The big mystery about the Oscar lineup is the last spot. When I said musical chairs, I meant it, especially if Margot Robbie’s performance is the real deal in “Mary Queen Of Scots.” Nicole Kidman is a solid competitor in Best Actress for “Destroyer” but is not safe from being snubbed. Therefore, goodwill from two films this year may bulk up her chances to be nominated for “Boy Erased.” However, if her campaign takes off for “Destroyer,” then she’ll probably miss here. Most have Claire Foy safely in the top five, and she’s certainly looking like a strong candidate. However, I have a sense “First Man” may not appeal to the acting and writing branches as adeptly as the technical ones, which would apply to her chances. Another problem Foy has is, her buzz is at its apex right now…in October. She’s the first performance of the competition to have her film released theatrically, so she will have the task of fending off actresses with more unique and louder characters in films that have friendlier release dates closer to the holidays. Also there is Marina de Tavira to consider if “Roma” is a massive hit with AMPAS voters and they elect to nominate the film across the board including with her co-star, Yalitza Aparicio, in the lead actress category.
On a final note, please take all of this with a grain of salt. But think about how each of the different groups thinks when making predictions. Look at past records and historical patterns. Each of the televised shows has their own personality when voting. And I may be totally off, and King may collect every single award this year. But I would argue this is the most competitive Best Supporting Actress race we have had in years and I can’t imagine it will result in the easy answer of King winning 5/5.
So what do you think? How do you feel the Best Supporting Actress race will play out? Who do you currently have nominated? let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
You can follow Ryan and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @RyanCShowers
