The Best Original Screenplay category is one that could go a variety of ways this year. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” is the apparent frontrunner, with its heartfelt ode to culture and community in the face of assimilation captivating audiences and critics alike. Though its direction is arguably more praised—especially considering that the most talked-about scene of the year is its spellbinding, genre-blending one-take “I Lied to You” sequence—crafting one of the year’s most original and emotionally resonant stories is an achievement that has not gone unnoticed thus far. But declaring Oscar “locks” in October has often proved foolhardy, and this race is far from over. Joachim Trier’s Cannes-winner, “Sentimental Value,” could easily be a spoiler, as the film has connected with many and should play well to the industry if its Cannes and TIFF awards are any indication. It’s a tale of strained familial relationships, but the backdrop may not have the bite of recent Best Original Screenplay winners like “Anora,” Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Promising Young Woman.” Still, this stirring story could easily be a late surge. “Marty Supreme” would also be the definition of a late surge in this race, considering the film had a surprise screening at this year’s New York Film Festival and premiered to raves and best-of-the-year reactions. Timotheé Chalamet seems primed for a Best Actor win, and since the film’s gripping script has been the subject of much praise, who’s to say that “Marty Supreme’s” winning package isn’t bigger than previously dreamed?
Yet if “Sinners” does lose momentum in this category, I would argue that the film most likely to benefit is “It Was Just an Accident.” Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner is perhaps the most urgent film of the year, which is already an achievement considering the existence of films like “One Battle After Another” and “No Other Choice.” This masterwork lures you in with a relatively simple premise: After Vahid hears the squeak of his former torturer’s peg leg, he kidnaps him, only to face doubts as to whether this man is truly the one responsible for his misery. But as the film goes on and more people become entangled in this plot, the dehumanization so many citizens faced under the cruel Iranian regime becomes far more tangible, culminating in a brutal, unflinching sequence that reopens the scars left on these people by the regime. It is no wonder a film this sharp and unflinching won the Palme d’Or, and it boasts one of the highest critic scores of the year.
However, I do not think “It Was Just an Accident” has the best position to usurp “Sinners” because it is one of the finest films of the year. I believe it stands the best chance because the branches and awards bodies that are least likely to favor “Sinners” are the same places most likely to recognize “It Was Just an Accident.” While “Sinners” is a bona fide sensation in the United States, its international box office and reception are not quite as strong. It should have no trouble winning the WGA or the Critics’ Choice, but it could struggle translating nominations into wins at the Golden Globes and at the BAFTAs, considering the global tastes of those awards bodies. Doing poorly at these awards is by no means a death sentence, as the reigning Best Picture winner “Anora” blanked at the Golden Globes and lost Best Original Screenplay to “A Real Pain” at the BAFTAs, but it ultimately was winning Best Picture. Otherwise, winning both screenplay awards can be a compelling combination for an Oscar win. The year before, WGA winner “The Holdovers” ultimately lost to Palme d’Or winner “Anatomy of a Fall,” which won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA.
While “Sinners” likely has to bank on American support to push it towards a win, “It Was Just an Accident” won the top prize at the most prestigious international film festival. Its masterfully woven script should appeal to high-brow voters. In contrast, its blend of unexpected humor and palpable anger should appeal to the industry at large, considering the success of films like “American Fiction,” “Parasite,” “Get Out,” and other genre-bending satires. It is a timely film that could easily be rallied behind in this era where being apolitical is no longer an option. Plus, who wouldn’t want to see Jafar Panahi add more accolades to his mantle?
Now, “It Was Just an Accident” still faces an uphill battle in this category due to how intense the competition is. It may even miss the Best Screenplay category at the Globes, in which case any hopes of an Oscar win might be put to rest. However, if it receives a nomination, the Golden Globes tend to award original screenplays in this category. In fact, over the past 10 years, only two films that won the Best Screenplay award were adapted. “One Battle After Another” or “Hamnet” could pick up a win here, as could “Sinners” if it is simply steamrolling the Best Original Screenplay category through the season. Still, the buzz surrounding “It Was Just an Accident” does feel somewhat reminiscent of “Anatomy of a Fall.” Both are Palme d’Or winners with immense critical acclaim and intensely loved screenplays, even if they were not the most awarded titles after Cannes. But as the season went on, Triet’s film picked up considerable steam and the same could happen for Panahi. Should the Globes recognize the brilliance of Panahi’s script just as they did Triet and Harari’s, I think the increasingly international BAFTAs and Oscars would follow suit. And it must be mentioned again, this would be a way to directly reward Panahi; a man who has faced persecution and imprisonment from the Iranian regime, and has had to flee his own country. He has continued to make films in defiance under the greatest of threats and the worst of circumstances, all the while delivering an ever-growing list of classics and advocating for a better world. If “It Was Just an Accident” won Best International Feature Film, Panahi would not win an Oscar; the country of France would as it’s their selection for that Oscar category this year. Rewarding him with Best Original Screenplay would be a courageous endorsement for a courageous man. And that, is not just an accident.
Have you seen “It Was Just an Accident” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you think the Academy will want to reward Jafar Panahi directly or indirectly with Best Original Screenplay or Best International Feature Film Oscars, respectively? Maybe both? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Amy and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @AmyHayneKim
