It’s clear that Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” is already proving itself to be a significant player this awards season. The film, which has been widely celebrated since its premiere at the 81st Venice Film Festival, has made its mark across a majority of critics groups and voting bodies such as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. It’s storming its way to the Academy Awards as one of the few films in this chaotic season that appears to have the potential to win big come Oscar night. While “The Brutalist” seems to be in the hunt for Best Picture, what other wins could come along with it to help get it across the finish line? Is “The Brutalist” capable of making a big splash like our previous two best picture winners (“Oppenheimer” & “Everything Everywhere All At Once“), or is its challenging nature leading it to be more in the company of something akin to Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” or Jane Campion’s “The Power Of The Dog?”
In terms of nominations, “The Brutalist” is looking to max-out come nomination morning. At one point, it felt like the film could be the nomination leader. Still, with the recent pendulum swing of momentum towards “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked,” it seems that distinction might not be happening anymore come Oscar nomination morning. Still, “The Brutalist” could land around eight to eleven nominations, making it one of the most nominated films at this year’s Academy Awards. In terms of possible wins, the consensus most points to at the moment is that Corbet is the winning Best Director. “The Brutalist” has been heralded by many as a feat of directorial vision that only seems to be more impressive due to the financial limitations Corbet and his crew had throughout the production of the film. It’s more likely Corbet would win Best Director as his and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay wouldn’t be able to win over something as beloved as Sean Baker’s writing for “Anora.”
Adrien Brody is also looking to be in good shape at the moment, as many believe he will take home his second Academy Award for Best Actor. Then there’s a variety of other categories where The Brutalist” is contending for a win, although it’s not as strong a contender to be taking home the gold. Guy Pearce’s villainous and scene-stealing turn as Harrison Van Burren is looking to earn the well-respected actor his first-ever Academy Award nomination and place him in the race to win Best Supporting Actor. What helps Pearce is that, despite tough competition against a celebrated Kieran Culkin performance in “A Real Pain,” it’s looking like there’s a chance Culkin’s film could miss out on a Best Picture nomination and thus, give Pearce the edge. Unless Culkin sweeps (which a supporting actor contender in a film without a Best Picture nomination hasn’t achieved since Christopher Plummer for “Beginners”), Pearce could rise to the top, especially being such a respected performer in the industry for decades who has worked with literally everyone.
With below-the-line categories, “The Brutalist” is vying for wins in Best Original Score and Best Cinematography. Daniel Blumberg’s score is easily one of the year’s best. Yet with someone like Academy Award winner Volker Bertelmann (“Conclave“) in contention, who knows if he might swipe in and win another Oscar just like he did against Justin Hurwitz’s widely celebrated score for “Babylon.” In defense of Blumberg, at least “The Brutalist” will for sure be a Best Picture nominee and is being far better received among critics and audiences alike. Best Cinematography is just a category that, as of now, is so in flux that there’s no definitive frontrunner at the moment. Lol Crawley’s work is outstanding, but we need to wait until ASC and BAFTA nominations are announced; it’s still anyone’s win for the taking. Dávid Jancsó’s editing in “The Brutalist” is exceptional and makes a three-and-a-half-hour film fly by. Yet, against the flashy editing style of “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” or “Anora,” you have to wonder if Academy voters actually go for it. It doesn’t help that the common criticism of some people who watch “The Brutalist” is that they prefer the first half pre-intermission over the second half, and the film missed out on an ACE Drama nomination. If “The Brutalist” were to win all these categories, it would be the same haul as last year’s “Oppenheimer” — Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing and Score. It would be shocking to see a film win directing, multiple acting wins, and techs only to lose out on Best Picture in this case.
Despite the possibility of “The Brutalist” performing very well in both above and below-the-line nominations, there is a world where we have to consider that maybe it doesn’t perform as expected in terms of wins. The comparisons to “The Power Of The Dog” have been floating around for a while now. It’s not entirely off, as maybe “The Brutalist” could become that Best Picture contender that is respected more than adored among industry voters. Maybe Corbet ends up precisely like Jane Campion, and “The Brutalist” only wins Best Director and nothing else. Now that “A Complete Unknown” is looking more possible for a Best Picture nomination, Timothée Chalamet could give Brody a run for his money in Best Actor. If it strikes out on all of these categories that feel more certain, then “The Brutalist” would end up in elite recent company alongside “The Banshees of Inisherin” or “Killers of the Flower Moon” as massively celebrated films that end up winless come Oscar night.
Will “The Brutalist” win big at the Academy Awards, or will it underperform? What other categories could it contend in that we didn’t mention? Is there a world where it pulls a goose egg? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
