The Golden Globes have undergone a bit of a transformation in recent years. After a reckoning around the turn of the decade that forced them off the air (never forget the live announcement of the 2021 awards, exclusively on Twitter), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was rebranded as the Golden Globe Foundation. With this rebranding came an expansion of the membership, which has led the nominees to become a bit more critically minded and less, well, Globes-y in the past few years. But one thing that hasn’t changed is their undeniable impact on the awards race in general. Although they share no voter overlap with the Academy, they’re undoubtedly still among the most influential awards in shaping the conversations and trends that help determine an Oscar winner due to their televised broadcast and social media reach. As such, let’s take a look at the Oscar categories shared with the Golden Globes and how they might be affected by last night’s winners.
Best Picture
Not to undercut the very purpose of this article, but this is one of a handful of categories that can easily be predicted with the simple answer of “‘One Battle After Another,‘ next question.” Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterwork easily nabbed Best Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Globes, further solidifying its extreme frontrunner status. In the parallel category of Best Picture – Drama, “Hamnet” was victorious in a bit of a surprise win. Most awards obsessives had picked “Sinners” to be victorious here, given its presumed runner-up position in Best Picture behind “One Battle After Another” (it’s quantifiably in second place in terms of precursor wins). Notably, “Sinners” did triumph in the ersatz Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category, which has become something of a damning win since it was introduced two ceremonies ago. Since then, every winner of this category (“Barbie” and “Wicked“) has gone on to lose their respective Best Picture category later in the night. Still, “Hamnet’s” victory here only further aids “One Battle After Another,” because if there’s a question of which film is truly in second place, it’s harder for an underdog to stage an upset win.
Best Director
Similarly, this category is all but certain at this point. Paul Thomas Anderson won for “One Battle After Another,” to the surprise of basically no one. Anyone hoping for a last-minute surge for Ryan Coogler (“Sinners“) or Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident“) can essentially put those dreams to bed and prepare for Anderson’s inevitable Oscar victory. Barring an extremely unlikely loss at BAFTA or DGA, it’s going to continue to be one award after another for the celebrated auteur.
Best Screenplay
Unlike the Oscars (and most other award shows), the Golden Globes don’t separate their writing prize into Adapted and Original categories, throwing all contenders into the mix regardless of source material. “One Battle After Another” won in what was certainly a bigger surprise than its victories in Picture or Director. Predictions were generally split between the eventual winner and “Sinners,” with some betting on “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” (notably, all of these films will compete for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars). As with Picture and Director, the win for “One Battle After Another” here only further firms its lead in Best Adapted Screenplay, which has essentially never been in doubt all season.
Best Actor
The Golden Globes split their lead acting categories into two races: Drama and Musical or Comedy. On the Drama side, Wagner Moura won for the Brazilian film “The Secret Agent,” whereas Timothée Chalamet repeated his recent Critics’ Choice victory for the ostensible comedy “Marty Supreme.” In terms of their Oscar chances, both men needed these wins. Chalamet is locked in for what’s looking more and more like a season-long sweep, triumphing once again over his closest competition (Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another” and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon“). The only question remains: Will he win at the SAG Awards (sorry, the Actor Awards) for the second year in a row? Last year, he briefly paused Adrien Brody’s victory march for his eventual Oscar-winning work in “The Brutalist” when his fellow actors honored him for his performance as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” The last time (and only) that SAG gave an actor back-to-back solo wins in their film categories was to Renee Zellweger, who won Best Actress for 2002’s “Chicago” and Best Supporting Actress the following year for “Cold Mountain.“ It remains to be seen if SAG-AFTRA voters will break this two-decade-plus-long trend to award Chalamet twice in a row.
As for Moura, this Golden Globe win was exactly what his awards campaign needed after a snub by the recently announced Actor Award nominations and an additional shocking absence from the BAFTA longlist mentions. As such, this is essentially the end of the road for Moura until the Academy Awards, where he now seems fairly secure for a nomination.
Best Actress
On the other hand, this lead category feels like the easiest to bet on of all four acting races. Jessie Buckley is unquestionably the far-out frontrunner for her highly emotional performance in “Hamnet,“ and she will likely repeat her CCA and Globe victories at the Actor Awards and BAFTAs. Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You“) picked up the Musical or Comedy lead female acting prize, capping off her highly respectable precursor run that saw her sweeping the season’s most important critics’ prizes, including the New York and Los Angeles critic awards and the National Board of Review. This will likely be her final major victory this season. Still, her Golden Globe win has helped secure her presumptive Oscar nomination, which is excellent news for the intentionally off-putting film. It’s almost certain that Byrne will be her film’s sole nomination, meaning the big televised moment the Golden Globes granted her is extremely important for raising the film’s profile with Academy voters.
Best Supporting Actor
Both supporting races continue to be wildly, excitingly unpredictable. Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein“) didn’t repeat his surprise Critics’ Choice win here, with the Globe instead going to beloved veteran Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value.” Since the film premiered at Cannes last May, many had predicted that he would sail to an Academy Award win, aided by an assumed avalanche of critics’ prizes and industry adoration for a man whose career has spanned six decades but has somehow not resulted in a single Oscar nomination. But the critics’ prizes instead favored Benicio del Toro for his shorter, scene-stealing performance in “One Battle After Another.” Skarsgård was also surprisingly left off the Actor Awards nominations, along with all of his “Sentimental Value” co-stars. He desperately needed this win to remain in the conversation. There’s a very good chance that he’ll repeat this win at the BAFTAs, but even so, he’ll face stiff competition from whoever triumphs at the Actor Awards (most likely del Toro or Elordi).
Best Supporting Actress
In what proved to be a preview of the film’s forthcoming dominance over the night, the ceremony’s first award went to Teyana Taylor for her thunderous performance that reigns over the first chapter of “One Battle After Another.“ At the recent Critics’ Choice Awards, Amy Madigan triumphed for her delicious villain turn in the horror film “Weapons.“ If she had won at the Golden Globes, it’s hard to imagine that she wouldn’t have gone on to inevitably win the Oscar, especially given that it’s the sort of attention-grabbing showcase work that her fellow performers are likely to award at the Actor Awards. But Taylor’s performance also has qualities that could specifically appeal to actors. This is likely to be the first time the relative newcomer to screen acting has been seen by some SAG-AFTRA voters, and it’s the kind of breakout performance most actors would kill to give. Furthermore, knowing BAFTA’s tastes, there’s a good chance that Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas could win for “Sentimental Value,“ as long as she receives a nomination. If anyone is looking for concrete guidance on who to predict, wisdom says that whoever wins the Actor Award will probably be the best bet for Oscar glory.
Best International Film
In terms of Oscar predictions, this remains one of the trickier categories. “The Secret Agent“ followed up its Critics’ Choice Award win in the same category with a Golden Globe win, which might make some believe it’s the automatic Oscar frontrunner. But this category has arguably never had as many high-profile contenders as this year. Four of the Globes’ nominees for Best Picture – Non-English Language were also nominated in their general Best Picture categories (“It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent,“ and “Sentimental Value“ in Drama, “No Other Choice“ in Musical or Comedy, along with “Nouvelle Vague,“ which missed an additional nomination here). Furthermore, all six of the Globe nominees are also their respective country’s selection for the Oscar, which isn’t the case in most years (the additional two Globe nominees in this category were “Sirāt“ and “The Voice of Hind Rajab“).
We’re almost guaranteed to see at least two international films receive Best Picture Oscar nominations, along with additional notable nods in the acting, writing, and directing categories. “The Secret Agent“ will likely receive a Best Actor nomination, but it has a lesser chance of being recognized in Best Director or Best Original Screenplay. Its closest competitors are likely to be nominated in several important categories: Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value“ is destined for an Original Screenplay nomination, along with a number of acting nods, and Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident“ could very well win Best Original Screenplay. Not to mention, those two films feel more secure for Best Director nominations than “The Secret Agent“ does – they both were nominated in the Golden Globes directing category, whereas Kleber Mendonça Filho has yet to make much of a dent in that race for “The Secret Agent.“ Regardless, all points to a very thinly spread, highly competitive Best International Film race, and if nothing else, the dual Golden Globe wins for “The Secret Agent“ will only increase the film’s overall profile. Let’s not forget last year’s Brazilian contender “I’m Still Here,“ which went from a semi-surprise Best Actress Golden Globe win to a definite-surprise Best Picture Oscar nomination. The Golden Globes may have been exactly the boost that “The Secret Agent“ needed to vault to the top position in this category.
Best Animated Feature
To basically no one’s surprise, the cultural sensation “KPop Demon Hunters“ won here. In previous years, whenever Disney or Pixar had a halfway-decent contender, it was often correctly presumed that they’d sail to Oscar victory. But this decade has been tough for the animation powerhouses, with only one winner from either studio (2021’s “Encanto“). Last year’s win for the comparatively smaller, independent film “Flow“ proved that Oscar voters no longer default to Disney-slash-Pixar, and the overall strength of “KPop Demon Hunters“ – both as a film and a cultural moment – only further assures that it’ll take the Oscar.
Best Original Song
But that’s not the only place “KPop Demon Hunters“ will triumph. The film’s ubiquitous earworm “Golden“ won the Golden Globe for Best Original Song, meaning the tune’s chances of winning the Oscar are only (to borrow from the lyrics) going up, up, up. It certainly doesn’t hurt that it’s a smash hit in its own right – it’s currently in contention for four Grammy Awards, including Song of the Year, and it topped the Billboard 200 chart for a total of 18 weeks across 2025. It’s undoubtedly the biggest film song since “Shallow“ from “A Star is Born,“ if not bigger, and it’s sure to add another golden (sorry) accolade to its world domination at the Academy Awards.
Best Original Score
In what was undoubtedly the rudest moment of the night, this award was presented to Ludwig Göransson for “Sinners” during a commercial break. Still, his victory here was far from surprising, given both how essential music is to the story of “Sinners“ and how popular the composer has been with awards voters. It’s almost guaranteed that the composer will win his third Oscar for this work.
What were your biggest surprises from last night’s Golden Globes? What were your favorite wins? Did any of this change your current Oscar predictions? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
