As early as it is to speculate if “Project Hail Mary” will be the latest spring premiere to get into Best Picture 10 months from now, it seems even earlier to wonder if Ryan Gosling can ride those coattails into his own Best Actor nomination – especially after how 2025 Best Actor winner Michael B. Jordan was on nobody’s radar to win 12 months ago.
Nonetheless, there is a personal trend for Gosling that would continue if he is nominated, which might be worth remembering way down the line. Since his career began, every year Gosling has been a Best Actor nominee has ended in a 6, and a nomination for “Project Hail Mary” would keep that pattern going for a third straight year. What’s more, being a Best Actor nominee in 2026 would reflect a career evolution just like his nominations in 2006 and 2016 did.
In 2006, Gosling was recognized by the Academy for the first time as a Best Actor nominee in the indie film “Half Nelson.” It wasn’t exactly his breakout role, since “The Notebook” made him a household name just two years earlier, but “Half Nelson” marked his arrival as a formidable, dramatic big-screen leading man. By doing a total 180 from a smash hit romantic tearjerker like “The Notebook” to play a drug addicted teacher in the much smaller “Half Nelson,” his first leading Oscar nomination in a year ending in a 6 reflected that a new, versatile star was on the rise.
For the next 10 years, Gosling continued to go back and forth between brooding indies and occasionally much broader films. But whether it was in the likes of “Drive,” “Blue Valentine,” or “The Place Beyond the Pines,” or in films like “Crazy, Stupid, Love,” “The Big Short,” or “The Ides of March,” Gosling himself wasn’t on the Academy’s radar even if some of his movies and co-stars were. That all changed exactly a decade after his first Best Actor nomination, when he got a second in 2016 for his next major career change.
After flipping between small and big films, Gosling returned to the Oscars with a movie that was a bit of both. “La La Land” was his biggest smash since “The Notebook” to that point, allowed him to lead in yet another bittersweet love story – if one that wasn’t as tragic as “The Notebook” or as rocky as “Blue Valentine” – and let him brood like he was in an indie film while still getting to sing and dance like in an old school musical.
Exactly 10 years after his first Best Actor nomination marked his arrival as a serious lead actor, Gosling received a second nomination that paved the way for the next stage of his career as a full-fledged movie star. While “La La Land” did let him blend some of his old indie sensibilities with his budding blockbuster persona, the transition towards the latter would only supercharge from there – even in serious-minded big-budget films like “Blade Runner 2049” and “First Man.”
It wouldn’t take another 10 years for Gosling to be nominated again, although 2023’s “Barbie” was his first nomination for Best Supporting Actor. But while Gosling was a major reason “Barbie” became a box office and award season sensation, he didn’t have to carry it on his own, just like he didn’t have to carry “La La Land” on his own either. But three years later, Gosling now has the makings of a box office phenomenon and potential award season smash that he is largely carrying on his own – at least as the only human around for most of the movie.
Just as “Half Nelson” introduced Gosling as a serious leading man 20 years ago, and just as “La La Land” started Gosling’s crossover into a bankable blockbuster leading man 10 years ago, “Project Hail Mary” completes that transition in full. In an all-out special effects outer space spectacle, with Gosling either playing to the rafters for laughs or for tears at any given moment, and with a love story of sorts that isn’t as doomed as the one in “La La Land” or as fraught with personal demons as the bonds in “Half Nelson” or “Blue Valentine,” “Project Hail Mary” is the culmination of a new stage in Gosling’s career and stardom as much as “La La Land” was in 2016 and “Half Nelson” was in 2006.
If that pattern could repeat right on cue for Gosling every 10 years, then it could be a sign that others will too. Without fail in this millennium, a Best Actor field in a year that ends in 6 has had Gosling’s name on it, and now 2026 already has Gosling as the first man in contention right out of the gate. If history keeps repeating itself from here on in, then Gosling will indeed be among the five Best Actor nominees named in January 2027, as in January 2017 and January 2007.
Of course, the circumstances are far different for Gosling and his movie than they were 10 and 20 years ago. “Project Hail Mary” is not only the furthest thing from a movie like “Half Nelson” – although Gosling plays a teacher with major shortcomings in both – it is also already an even bigger hit than “La La Land.” However, “La La Land” was a Best Picture frontrunner until the last leg of the season 10 years ago, whereas “Project Hail Mary” probably won’t be that high up the Best Picture charts once the entire field is out. And while “Half Nelson” and “La La Land” started on the festival circuit and weren’t seen by general audiences until fall or later, “Project Hail Mary” is going to have to sustain its initial momentum from general audiences for an entire year, which could be tricky depending on how the season at large goes.
Even if “Project Hail Mary” stays strong enough on its own to be a Best Picture nominee, it doesn’t automatically mean Gosling will come along as a nominee too. Given how Jordan rewrote the normal rules and trajectory of a Best Actor winner with “Sinners” this past year, and given how this year’s Best Actor race will likely be in a holding pattern until Tom Cruise is seen in “Digger” this fall, there’s no way to know where Best Actor will be headed for a good long time.
By the time awards season actually starts, every frontrunner and potential nominee will want to find an edge or a sign that favors them. For Gosling, no matter how many projected preseason favorites or out of nowhere discoveries join him in Best Actor contention, he can take solace in how every awards season exactly like this – or at least those in this particular 10-year interval – has ended very favorably for him.
2006 introduced Gosling as an awards-caliber actor, while 2016 introduced him as someone who could lead an awards contender and a major blockbuster – and now 2026 has already taken that side of Gosling’s star power to the next level. If the familiar patterns continue from there, the Academy will take notice right on cue as well.
Do you think “Project Hail Mary” will bring Ryan Gosling another Oscar nomination for Best Actor? Have you seen the film yet? If so, what did you think? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
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