If this past weekend told us anything, it told us that “Anora” is the frontrunner to win Best Picture. But if past awards seasons have told us anything, it’s that the season isn’t over till it’s over. After being shut out at the Golden Globes, the momentum for “Anora” has been resuscitated, earning major wins at PGA, DGA, and Best Film at the Critics Choice Awards. In any other year, “Anora’s” frontrunner status would be far more solidified, almost confirming that it’ll inevitably win the big prize at the Oscars come March. Yet this year is so uncertain that it isn’t over until we see what happens at the BAFTAs this weekend and/or SAG. If “Anora” were to win the ensemble award at SAG or Best Film at BAFTA, that would honestly be enough to call it for Best Picture. There would be no need for more hypotheticals as it would have practically steamrolled this portion of the televised awards and guilds. But If it doesn’t win either prize, we could be in store for a nail-biter of a finale for this awards season, especially if one film wins both BAFTA and SAG Ensemble (Which only “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” or “A Complete Unknown” can do). Here are the possible paths “Anora” could go down for Oscar night, depending on what happens at SAG and BAFTA.
It’s hard to imagine “Anora” going winless on the evening of the Oscars. However, having bad days at both BAFTA and SAG (more so BAFTA) could produce a ripple effect that’ll carry to the 97th Academy Awards. It feels like “Anora” is already fighting an uphill battle at SAG, as many predict the ensemble award will go to either “Wicked” or “Conclave.” Still, it could upset and win just like Sean Baker’s recent victory at DGA, which would only confirm the strength of the film as the love from various guilds would continue to grow. Speaking of Best Director, BAFTA could also sweep the legs of the momentum “Anora” is building up for Baker as there is a chance Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist“) could still win here. While many assumed Corbet would win DGA, with a Globe win and “The Brutalist” still lingering in the Best Picture conversation, it’ll only add fire to his campaign if he can have both Golden Globe and BAFTA against Baker’s sole DGA win. Baker could still prevail in Best Director as we’ve seen many directors only win DGA against someone who had even more than Corbet does (CCA+GG+BAFTA) and then go on to win the Oscar (Tom Hooper and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu come to mind). Baker is also fighting to win Best Original Screenplay but has yet to win an award in this category throughout the televised awards. CCA opted to go with Coralie Fargeat’s work for “The Substance,” which gives it the boost it needs heading into BAFTA to possibly repeat and kill Baker’s chances of winning in this category at the Oscars. It’ll be difficult not to predict Fargeat with CCA + BAFTA wins for the Oscar even if Baker goes on to win the WGA (something “The Substance” isn’t nominated for).
Baker, also nominated as an editor for “Anora,” is also seeking a win at BAFTA, which could help shape an incredibly wide-open race for Best Film Editing. With the overall love for “Conclave” at BAFTA and the fact it’s a locked winner for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, you can’t help but think that an editing win here at the BAFTA would strengthen its chances at the Oscars, especially when the winner of the ACE Eddie Award won’t be announced till after the Academy Awards this year. If Corbet wins Best Director, Fargeat wins Best Original Screenplay, and “Conclave” wins Best Editing at BAFTA, there’s no way “Anora” pulls off some CCA magic and wins a lone Best Picture award at the Oscars, is there?
It is most likely that “Anora” will be leaving home with something, taking at least one award at the Oscars. The most probable scenario is that “Anora” would be a lone screenplay winner if it were to win only one Oscar. With Baker most likely winning at WGA this weekend and a possible BAFTA win, that would be enough to carry him to the finish line at the Academy Awards for Best Original Screenplay. It would be very odd to see Baker win only Best Film Editing. Still, it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if the Academy gives Corbet the Best Director Oscar and Best Original Screenplay to Fargeat and “Anora” wins Best Editing at BAFTA, suggesting there was obvious strength for it but not enough to win in the other categories it was competitive in. It’s telling that this is a whirlwind of a season, and there’s a slight chance that Baker could be a lone Best Director winner if Best Editing went to another film and Baker lost the Best Original Screenplay Oscar. Crazy!!
If “Anora” were to take home two Oscars, the pair that makes the most sense would be Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, essentially the package the “Spotlight” won back in 2015. No film has ever won only Best Picture and Best Director, and it’s hard to see “Anora” being the one to break that streak. While many thought “The Power of the Dog” could do it back in 2021, the Academy instead went with “CODA,” which had a writing and acting win to go alongside it. Also, it wouldn’t make sense for Baker to win both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay without the film ultimately taking Best Picture along with it. If “Anora” were to win multiple Academy Awards and still lose Best Picture, then Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing would seem like a reasonable pairing, two wins it would have to achieve this weekend at BAFTA without winning Best Director or Best Film and not winning SAG Ensemble either.
“Anora” taking home three Oscars certainly means Best Picture is in the cards, and a win in Best Director or Best Original Screenplay would tag along. Figuring out what that third win could be is where things get tricky. The easiest answer is that it wins all three: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director. In a year where it feels so spread out, it makes sense that “Anora” could be the film to just come in and stake its claim as the definitive favorite, especially with the recent collapse of “Emilia Pérez” that has undoubtedly left a bad enough taste in voter’s mouths to prevent it from taking the top prize. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and “Parasite” are recent examples of films that proved with enough support from the voters, they could triple crown and reward their filmmakers with three Oscars in one night. We could also substitute a win in directing or screenplay in exchange for editing. It makes plenty of sense and would give “Anora” the flexibility to get crucial wins that would carry it to a Best Picture win, especially if contenders like Corbet (in Best Director) or Fargeat (in Best Original Screenplay) prevail in the end. Now, if Madison were able to win at BAFTA and/or SAG, that would certainly aid the possibility of her being added to a winning trio. Still, with the way Demi Moore (“The Substance“) has been sweeping this season so far at Critics Choice and Golden Globes off a career narrative and starring in a Best Picture nominee, it’s almost as locked as locked can be. One more win at SAG or BAFTA will likely seal the deal for her unless she loses one of them to Madison. Then, there will be reasonable cause to cast some doubt over what will happen in Best Actress.
On its best possible day, “Anora” takes home four to five Oscars, with the possibility of Baker winning in four separate categories, which would tie him for the record of most Oscars rewarded to one individual in a single night with Walt Disney in 1954. Those were not all for the same film, which would put Baker at an even higher level of recognition. The only win that feels improbable is Yura Borisov in Best Supporting Actor, which, despite being a delightful nomination, is mainly charged by the passion for the film overall. Besides, Borisov hasn’t won a single major precursor yet (unless you want to count LAFCA) and is going to have to pull a miracle to be the one to stop the Kieran Culkin. (“A Real Pain“) sweep instead of industry veteran Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist“) or four-time Oscar nominee Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown“). Still, the fact that “Anora” is even in the conversation for this possibility proves there is genuine love the industry has given Baker’s latest feature. Was it really that shocking that “Anora” had such an incredible rebound during this chaotic awards season? Critics have always stood by the film, and most audiences enjoy it. Everyone was blinded by the “Emilia Pérez” dominance post-Oscar nominations that maybe “Anora” never wavered as the front runner all along, much like “Spotlight” with its similar total of 6 nominations compared to some other heavy hitters that same year.
Do we think “Anora” will continue to win at BAFTA and/or SAG and be on its way to the Academy Awards? Is there a world where it doesn’t win a single Oscar? What categories does it have the best chance of winning this Sunday at BAFTA? Please let us know in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to vote on your own 97th Academy Award winners ballot here and check out our latest Oscar predictions here.
