The common narrative after the PGA, DGA, and CCA awards is that “Anora” has completely closed out the Oscar race after sweeping all three. Nevertheless, there are still two more weeks of precursors before Oscar night, and the one that looms larger than the rest is BAFTA since it’s being held during Oscar voting. As such, if there is room for one more curveball this season, it will have to come from BAFTA – which in many ways represents the last stand of the Oscar race.
In particular, these are the do-or-die situations BAFTA has set up, which will either close out several, if not all, major categories or restore uncertainty after a week-long break of certainty.
Do Or Die For “Emilia Pérez”
There are many ways in which “Emilia Pérez’s” losses at PGA and DGA made everyone breathe easier, especially since it lost votes held before Karla Sofia Gascon’s tweets were found. Now, it is tempting to relax and say if it lost the PGA before the controversy, it would undoubtedly lose the BAFTA and every other award show that held its votes after the controversy broke. However, BAFTA is the first true test of that theory.
As the first awards show where votes were cast in the heat of “Emilia Pérez” discourse, BAFTA will set the shape of things to come one way or the other. But between BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscars, BAFTA is the show that was always going to have “Emilia Pérez’s” most favorable voting body left, given its vast nomination package at BAFTA, its underperformance at SAG, and the Oscars having a wider variety of likely anti “Emilia Pérez” voters.
If there is any awards show left where “Emilia Pérez” can brush aside backlash, keep winning what it’s been winning this whole time, and perhaps even overperform, it would be at BAFTA. But if it can’t do that and also starts losing one or two of its “locked” categories at BAFTA, then maybe it will finally mark the true beginning of the end.
Do Or Fie For Every Film Besides “Anora”
Before its CCA/PGA/DGA sweep, few really thought “Anora” could be a film that wins BAFTA. Even now, it can’t be said for certain that “Anora” is the favorite for BAFTA Best Film. But if any other film still wants to tell itself it can come back to win Best Picture, it has to start with an “Anora” loss at BAFTA.
It remains easy to make a case that “The Brutalist” or “Conclave” is the BAFTA favorite, or that “A Complete Unknown” might finally translate its overperformance at the nomination stage to a win, or that enough unaffected international voters could still carry “Emilia Pérez.” Yet, even if “Anora” loses Best Film, it has jumped ahead so suddenly in the last few days, and few will argue that losing BAFTA makes a difference. Nonetheless, winning BAFTA will certainly erase whatever doubt there is left.
At the very least, “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown,” or “Emilia Pérez” can keep the pretense of a race up for another week until “Anora’s” next attempt to finish them off at SAG. If “Anora” doesn’t win either BAFTA Best Film or SAG Ensemble, the door isn’t completely closed yet – although when “The Shape of Water” won both PGA and DGA and then “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won both BAFTA and SAG in 2017, it was the PGA/DGA winner that held on at the Oscars anyway.
There is still a tiny path for any other film to win Best Picture, as long as the only major win “Anora” has from now until Oscar night is at WGA. But if “Anora” can now win a BAFTA race it was counted out of for weeks, whatever hope there is will be completely lost, if it isn’t already. Yet, if there is another comeback for the ages ahead in the next three weeks, it must start in week one at BAFTA, or it will never happen.
Do Or Die For Every Actor Besides The Frontrunners
The Critics Choice may have upended Best Picture and Best Director, but it did not shake up any of the four acting races, as Adrien Brody, Demi Moore, Kieran Culkin, and Zoe Saldana won just like they did at the Golden Globes. Therefore, if 2024 isn’t going to turn into a repeat of 2019, where all four acting winners sweep, BAFTA has to start sowing chaos.
SAG is usually the great momentum turner of acting races, but that won’t happen this year since SAG is held after Oscar voting is over. Still, there’s already widespread speculation that Timothee Chalamet, Mikey Madison, and Ariana Grande will take SAG from the supposed frontrunners in their categories, if only because their movies overperformed at the nominations. However, even if Brody, Moore, and Saldana all lose at SAG, it may become irrelevant if they don’t lose at BAFTA first.
Even if Ralph Fiennes wins the BAFTA and Chalamet wins at SAG, two straight losses for Brody combined with “The Brutalist’s” sudden fall in the Best Picture race could make him the latest favorite from “The Brutalist” to go down. If Saldana doesn’t win at BAFTA or SAG, it will signal that the “Emilia Pérez” backlash is so significant that Saldana isn’t immune anymore – though it may still help her if Grande doesn’t win both. And even if Madison doesn’t win BAFTA, Moore losing a televised award to anyone for the first time – like Marianne Jean-Baptiste or Cynthia Erivo – combined with “Anora’s” resurgence might open the door for a Madison comeback launch at SAG. Finally, if “A Real Pain’s” Best Picture omission will affect Culkin at some point, it will have to begin at BAFTA.
For those who still want suspense and chaos, they will need to pray there isn’t another Brody/Moore/Culkin/Saldana win quartet in BAFTA – or else even if that quartet doesn’t repeat at SAG; it will be far too late.
Do Or Die In Best Director And Best Original Screenplay
It was assumed that Best Director and Best Original Screenplay were mortal locks for weeks if not months. But at every turn, Brady Corbet has failed to start steamrolling in Best Director, while Sean Baker still can’t completely close the door in Best Original Screenplay. Now, BAFTA is their last chance to restore order, or else they risk finishing total collapses at the Oscars.
When Baker lost Best Original Screenplay at Critics Choice to “The Substance,” “Anora” was in such a dire place that it looked totally dead everywhere – at least until the following 24+ hours. Yet, if Baker suddenly has Best Director in hand and could still walk away with Best Film Editing, will he really become the first man in Oscar history to win four Oscars in one year for a single movie?
If Baker has Best Director and/or Best Editing covered, will voters start spreading the wealth to Coralie Fargeat in Best Original Screenplay, at a minimum? BAFTA has turned the tide for films like “Jojo Rabbit,” “The Father,” “CODA,” and “American Fiction” to win Screenplay in recent years, so if “The Substance” wins BAFTA, its momentum might be too strong then – especially if it’s beating “Anora” despite its surges elsewhere.
Baker doesn’t have Best Director locked yet in any case, as there’s still a better-than-average chance Corbet could strike back at BAFTA and then squeeze by at the Oscars. If Corbet can’t even win BAFTA, that might close the door on him completely, whether Baker wins BAFTA instead or not – though it could always pick Edward Berger after an Oscar snub for the second time in three years.
If Corbet survives BAFTA, then at the least, Best Director is a coin flip going into Oscar night – just like Best Original Screenplay will be if “The Substance” takes BAFTA and “Anora” takes WGA the night before. And if “Anora” loses one or both of these coin flips on Oscar night, maybe its Best Picture win won’t look so inevitable after all.
Do Or Die In Best Film Editing
After “Challengers” won Critics Choice for Best Film Editing despite being overlooked at the Oscars, it further muddled a Best Film Editing race with no favorites among the nominated films. But at long last, BAFTA Best Editing will give the first concrete clue – and it could be decisive.
Is “Anora” really going to win Best Editing for Baker and give him a second, third, or even fourth Oscar win by himself? Is “Conclave” really going to finally win an Oscar category that isn’t Best Adapted Screenplay, only when it seems to be too late – or is this how it proves it’s not too late? Are international voters who are still riding or dying with “Emilia Pérez” prepared to make a statement here and give it a path to a win that isn’t Best Supporting Actress, Best International Feature, or Best Song – and thus singlehandedly keep the dream/nightmare of a Best Picture win alive? Or will the chaos continue right to the end with a BAFTA win for the Oscar-snubbed “Dune: Part Two” or “Kneecap” – which would probably point to an Oscar win for something like “Wicked” or even “The Brutalist” at this point?
If only because Best Editing still has no frontrunner and still has so many Best Picture contenders involved, this is one of the categories that can truly settle Best Picture for good. And like so many other races, this is one that only BAFTA can either ultimately settle at long last or keep the madness going all the way up to Oscar night.
What do you think will win at the BAFTA’s this weekend? Please let us know on on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
