Leading up to the BAFTAs, “One Battle After Another” dominating yet another awards body seems to be a foregone conclusion. It has not missed a single beat in the awards race so far, easily scooping up top wins at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice, and the DGA for Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson. It is widely projected to add a BAFTA Best Film win to its collection, a projection supported by its leading BAFTA nominations and its breaking the record for most longlist mentions at 16. But while “One Battle After Another” appears to be an unstoppable frontrunner this awards season, there is another film that has been performing quite strongly at the same time that could have its best showing on home turf.
Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet” has been a consistent presence at the precursors, landing top mentions across the board, leading in wins this season for Best Actress, and even winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award and Best Film – Drama at the Golden Globes. Yet at BAFTA, where it managed a whopping 11 nominations, it is only projected to land wins for Jessie Buckley and Best British Film. While both would be impressive wins, it feels low for a film that almost entirely maxed out at this awards body. Paul Mescal and Emily Watson both scored nominations here for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, respectively, despite the former missing out on an Oscar nomination and the latter not receiving recognition from any other awards bodies. And while it missed Best Casting here despite getting an Oscar nomination in that category, it managed a Best Makeup & Hair mention here to offset it. “Hamnet” received nearly every nomination it possibly could have, only failing to translate 3 of its 14 longlists to BAFTA nods.
But what does this mean for its chances at the BAFTAs? Though many a frontrunner has failed to translate this narrative into an Oscar win—including PTA himself for “Licorice Pizza’s” BAFTA-rewarded screenplay—it truly feels like it is Paul Thomas Anderson’s time to be awarded for his direction. With the DGA, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and regional critics’ wins, it is difficult to see him losing Best Director. His biggest competition for the Oscar, Ryan Coogler, was far more likely to win the DGA than the BAFTA. He is similarly dominant in Best Adapted Screenplay, but while the writing is acclaimed across the board, his narrative has centered around his achievement as a director. If “Hamnet” could upset “One Battle After Another” in any category, I do think it would be Best Adapted Screenplay, should the BAFTAs want to spread the love. It is a critically acclaimed screenplay about the family of England’s most iconic writer, but more importantly, it is an emotionally wrecking crowdpleaser. Though Anderson likely still has the edge in this category, especially given his previous win in Best Original Screenplay for “Licorice Pizza,” I still think there is a chance Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell take the win, given how emotionally resonant “Hamnet” is as a top contender.
When it comes to the technical categories, “Hamnet” faces competition from “Frankenstein” in Best Makeup & Hair, Best Costume Design, and Best Production Design, and from “Sinners” in Best Original Score. All four categories have clear frontrunners primed to sweep. However, if the passion for “Hamnet” that was compelling enough to translate into 11 BAFTA nominations was to pay off in a tech win, I would argue that a Best Production Design win is in play. The feat of constructing the world-famous Globe Theatre for a production of “Hamlet” could appeal to BAFTA voters, especially since they were a bit more lukewarm on “Frankenstein” than other awards bodies. Take its Best Adapted Screenplay miss, for instance! I would still favor “Frankenstein” in that category due to its dominance there, but if you think two wins for “Hamnet” is too few, this is a tech that you could add to its haul this Sunday.
The splintered Best Supporting Actor race could become even more confusing with a Paul Mescal win. While he failed to be nominated for an Oscar for this role, could he still piggyback off of Jessie Buckley’s passion and take the win here? He is a BAFTA winner for “Normal People” and has also been nominated for “Aftersun” and “All of Us Strangers,” so this voting body clearly loves him. With Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn likely splitting the vote amongst “One Battle After Another” fans, Stellan Skarsgard winning the Golden Globe but missing SAG, and Jacob Elordi in a film that underperformed here, there is a world where this fractured race leads to a BAFTA darling in a BAFTA beloved film winning.
Ultimately, unless “Hamnet” is able to snatch a win outside of Best Actress and Best British Film, it is fairly unlikely that it takes Best Film from “One Battle After Another” this Sunday. However, while there are clear frontrunners in nearly every category it is up for, there are also clear paths for it to upset, and thus leapfrog over Anderson’s awards juggernaut and present itself as a viable alternative for the Oscar for Best Picture. Could it continue its upward trajectory with a decisive win in Best Adapted Screenplay or even Best Film? Stay tuned this Sunday.
What do you think will win Best Film at BAFTA this Sunday? “One Battle After Another?” “Hamnet?” Or perhaps, something else entirely? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
