After the BAFTA Longlists and the PGA nominations the other day, several Best Picture players have been put down. “Wicked: For Good” missing Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards and the PGA has doomed the popular film’s chances for good. “No Other Choice” missing Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTA longlists means that the film no longer has an above-the-line category it could feasibly get into. “Jay Kelly” has been unlikely ever since the film, which revolves around the reflections of an A-list actor, blanked at the Actor Awards, but its poor performance on the BAFTA longlists and exclusion from the PGA 10 are two more nails in its coffin. “Avatar: Fire & Ash” has been on shaky ground since missing the Critics’ Choice nomination, and now it’s missing the PGA to other box-office successes like “F1” and “Weapons.”
There are also bubble contenders whose strength was proven today. “Bugonia” is now solidly in Best Picture after its BAFTA longlist domination and PGA nomination. With its PGA nomination, “Train Dreams” similarly feels secure. Alongside “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” we now seemingly have eight safe nominees in Best Picture. As a result, the films now in contention for the last two slots in Best Picture are “Blue Moon,” “F1,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent,” and “Weapons.” The Golden Globes this Sunday will be the next barometer of Best Picture strength, especially since Oscar voting begins Monday.
The Globes are particularly critical for “It Was Just an Accident” and “The Secret Agent,” the two international films in contention for the last two Best Picture slots. While industry awards have largely ignored the feats of these international films, the Globes have been praised for their acknowledgment of international cinema across the board. If these films want to win anything big, it has to be here. Even though it has missed at the top category at all industry awards, “It Was Just an Accident” will probably get into Best Picture due to its status as a Palme d’Or winner and its buzz in the category all season long. An Original Screenplay nomination also feels likely, considering the film’s Film, Director, and Screenplay nominations at the Golden Globes. Though not secure, considering “Weapons,” “Blue Moon,” and “The Secret Agent” are also in the hunt for the last two slots in Original Screenplay. With BAFTA Longlist misses for both Best Film and Best Director, Panahi looks much weaker in Best Director than he did a few days ago. But a televised win in either Best International Film, Best Screenplay, or even Best Film – Drama could completely change that. If the widely beloved Jafar Panahi can deliver a heartfelt speech about what this recognition means to him, despite the challenges he faced in making the film, that goodwill could push him over the edge for a Best Director nomination.
“The Secret Agent” is on much shakier ground for a Best Picture nomination, but it does show signs of strength. The Casting shortlist at the Oscars, the Critics’ Choice win for Best International Film, and the Golden Globe nomination in Best Film – Drama are all lovely feathers in its cap. It also helps that the film’s lead, Wagner Moura, stands a strong chance at a nomination. What doesn’t help, though, is that Moura missed out on a Best Actor nomination at the Actor Awards and a BAFTA longlist for the Same Category. Nonetheless, Moura is widely tipped to win the Globe due to how receptive voters were to the film and the passion he has for the role (i.e., his Best Actor win at Cannes). A Globe win here would help solidify a slot in the Best Actor lineup, as Globe winners in the Drama field rarely miss a nomination. “The Secret Agent” could then easily ride that added momentum to nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. But if Moura loses the Globe, he could easily be usurped by Jesse Plemons in the Oscar lineup. And if Moura cannot get into Best Actor, “The Secret Agent’s” chances in Best Picture are slim. That said, a Moura loss would not be the end of the world if “The Secret Agent” repeats its feat at the Critics’ Choice Awards and wins International Film here. It would actually feel far more significant this time, since the film’s director, Kleber Mendonça Filho, would be able to deliver a speech.
Finally, few were taking “Blue Moon” seriously as a Best Picture contender until its surprise Golden Globe nomination in Best Film – Comedy. Ethan Hawke has always been a threat in Best Actor, especially since his film is being campaigned by Sony Pictures Classics. For those who are unaware, Sony Pictures Classics is a legendary acting campaigner at the Oscars. They were behind “I’m Still Here” landing nominations in Best Actress and, in the most shocking nod in the category in years, Best Picture! The Best Picture push could not have happened without Fernanda Torres’s exciting Golden Globe win in Best Actress. It became undeniable how significant her nomination would be for Brazil, which has long been a beacon of cinema, and the film’s momentum, plus its expert campaigning, propelled it into Best Picture. A narrative could also form around “Blue Moon” should Hawke upset Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio and take home the Globe, a film that achingly captures how painful it is to love being an artist but never be recognized for it. He is an undeniably charismatic actor, and his Globe win could be the push “Blue Moon” needs to surge as a Best Picture contender. With a package of Best Actor and potentially Best Original Screenplay, a Best Picture nomination suddenly becomes all the more likely.
Should none of these wins happen, the case for “F1” and “Weapons” in Best Picture grows stronger, both of which landed PGA nominations on Friday. Both films have strong audience reception and could easily emerge as default picks in such a split race. “F1” could get in entirely through its popularity and its below-the-line strength. It is win-competitive in Best Sound and Film Editing and has the possibility of showing up in other tech categories like Best Visual Effects, Original Song, and Cinematography for its haul. “Weapons,” on the other hand, would hope to ride off on an Amy Madigan sweep in Best Supporting Actress and an Original Screenplay nomination. It doesn’t hurt that the film has been nominated for Best Casting at both the Oscars and the BAFTAs! Ultimately, the Globes have the opportunity to give an extra boost to several Best Picture contenders currently on the bubble. Still, if they refuse, two populist picks could easily fill the open slots.
What do you think will happen tonight for the Golden Globe Awards? What are you currently predicting to be nominated for Best Picture? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more important upcoming dates this awards season and here for the most recent tally of awards season winners for the current year.
