“Disclosure Day’s” $44 million opening may not seem huge compared to mega IP-driven blockbusters. However, it is still one of the highest openings for a completely original film in the last decade. In fact, dating back to summer 2015, it is the second-largest opening for a non-horror, non-IP-based film, behind “F1: The Movie” and its $57 million opening just last summer. As it stands, this isn’t the first time “Disclosure Day” has matched “F1: The Movie” – and it hopes to do so again on Oscar nomination morning, too.
“F1: The Movie” was the only summer movie to become a Best Picture nominee last year, no matter how much some pundits and fans decried it. Now for the second straight year, a film opening in June hopes to ride box office success and the narrative of original/non-IP storytelling, from storytellers and stars who have a long proven track record with the Academy, into the Best Picture field of ten – even if not all critics and fans believe it belongs there.
When “F1: The Movie” came out last year, it only managed an 82 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, a 7.1 average critics’ rating, and a 69 on MetaCritic. “Disclosure Day“ is nearly in that same range, with a slightly lower 80 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, a slightly higher 7.3 average critics’ rating, and a more definitively higher 74 on MetaCritic. Still, just as “F1: The Movie” was considered a significant step down from director Joseph Kosinski and producer Jerry Bruckheimer’s past box office turned Oscar sensation in “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Disclosure Day“ hardly has the more unanimous raves of Steven Spielberg’s near-dozen other box office turned Oscar sensations.
Nevertheless, a lot of residual love for Kosinski, “Top Gun: Maverick,“ and Brad Pitt gave “F1: The Movie“ slightly higher reactions than it might otherwise have deserved, and certainly gave it much higher credibility with Oscar voters than it might otherwise have had. Now, a year later, residual love for Spielberg and his own legend, and for human stars like Emily Blunt, have given “Disclosure Day“ a lot more slack – at least in some circles – than it would have if anyone else had made it. In that respect, it is now fair to wonder if the same similarities will hold six months from now as well.
“Disclosure Day” doesn’t have the ratings or box office that current Oscar contender “Project Hail Mary“ had this spring, or that future blockbusters like “The Odyssey“ or “Dune: Part Three“ hope to achieve. Likewise, “F1: The Movie“ was in no way put on par with the 2025 spring box-office hit turned Oscar frontrunner “Sinners,“ yet room was made for it as a second blockbuster Best Picture nominee. It also helped that fall 2025 blockbusters like “Wicked: For Good“ and “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ were major letdowns among awards voters, which left even more room for “F1: The Movie“ to fill the gap.
Both “F1: The Movie“ and “Disclosure Day“ are technically original stories, instead of anything based on IP or a cinematic universe. Yet they are both borrowing very recognizable brands, as “F1: The Movie“ brought in a worldwide audience through ties to the Formula One circuit, and “Disclosure Day“ drew its audience through the decades-long legend of Spielberg and his past alien movies. Between that and certain plot similarities to other movies from their filmmakers, it is easy to mock them as not the most original kind of original films, though maybe Oscar voters and certain audiences mind a bit less than some critics and pundits.
Either way, in a time where original, non-IP hits of any kind are in short supply from Hollywood, fans and awards voters will take any excuse to honor them – whether they are the most shining examples of original films, and of their filmmakers, or not. It helped “F1: The Movie“ sneak its way into the Oscars despite the backlash, and now if “Disclosure Day“ shows its legs and word of mouth against the likes of “Toy Story 5,” “Supergirl,“ and “Minions & Monsters“ over the next few weeks, it will have a case to sneak its way in too.
However, there are additional advantages “F1: The Movie“ had that “Disclosure Day“ cannot replicate. First of all, while “F1: The Movie“ ultimately stalled at $189 million domestic, it made more than double that worldwide, with over $444 million overseas alone. That is the advantage Formula One racing gave “F1: The Movie,“ something even Spielberg is unlikely to match. While “F1: The Movie“ made its blockbuster case with over $630 million worldwide, “Disclosure Day” might struggle to reach even half that, regardless of what it does in America from here on in.
Second of all, “F1: The Movie“ got in on the strength of several technical nominations, winning Best Sound while also getting into Best Editing and Best Visual Effects. But it never seriously threatened for any other nominations above the line except Best Picture, unlike “Top Gun: Maverick.” “Disclosure Day“ might have some extra advantages, as Blunt’s high raves make her an outside Best Actress possibility depending on how that field fills out, and Spielberg films have rarely failed to factor in as tech nominees. Yet since “Disclosure Day” doesn’t have the kind of sound and editing advantages a film about auto racing does, and since contenders with far bigger visuals like “The Odyssey“ and “Dune: Part Three“ are on their way, it might not end up the kind of tech-driven powerhouse “F1: The Movie“ became.
Third, while “F1: The Movie“ was technically the third Best Picture nominee from Warner Bros in 2025, since it was co-released in theaters, it was credited as an Apple Studios movie. As Apple’s top, if not only real, priority in Oscar season, it got all the studio resources it could possibly ask for to push its way in. But in the case of “Disclosure Day,“ it cannot rise any higher than Universal’s No. 2 Oscar-season hopeful, since it is also releasing “The Odyssey“ as a summer hit turned Oscar contender.
Because “The Odyssey“ is from this generation’s Spielberg – at least in terms of making summer blockbusters into Oscar films – in Christopher Nolan, there is almost no expectation that it will turn out to be a total disaster. At the very worst, it could still ride a handful of tech nominations and residual love for Nolan to squeeze its way into the bottom of the Best Picture field, and become the true parallel to “F1: The Movie“ this year. If that happens, then there really is no room or perhaps a need for “Disclosure Day“ to do the same.
Universal could just get both hits in, but if both wind up below the level and box-office standards of Nolan and Spielberg’s highest, then only one, if any, would probably survive. There’s certainly no guarantee that one Universal film has to get in, since it completely missed last year, thanks to the collapse of “Wicked: For Good.“ Yet, unless “The Odyssey“ is a “Wicked: For Good“ level kind of disappointment, there is almost no path for “Disclosure Day“ to be Universal’s No. 1 Oscar priority, at least not in the way “F1: The Movie“ was Apple’s.
History does say being a Spielberg movie that isn’t a total letdown is enough, as he made “War Horse,” “Lincoln,” “Bridge of Spies,” “The Post,” “West Side Story,“ and “The Fabelmans“ Best Picture nominees in the expanded era alone. If “F1: The Movie“ was let in mostly because Kosinski and Bruckheimer made “Top Gun: Maverick“ – not to mention how 2025 alien/conspiracy film “Bugonia“ surged its way in on the strength of being from Oscar darlings Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone – then checking off “Disclosure Day“ just for being a Spielberg film, if not a high grossing or reviewed Spielberg film, isn’t a massive stretch.
This past Oscar nomination morning left “F1: The Movie“ as the day’s biggest villain for knocking off the far more acclaimed “It Was Just an Accident“ and fellow summer blockbuster “Weapons,“ but it still got in, nonetheless. Will “Disclosure Day“ keep following in its footsteps and become the next Oscar nomination morning’s top villain, for knocking off whatever big movies and acclaimed indies are on the bubble this year?
Have you seen “Disclosure Day” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you think it will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars? If not, which categories do you think it will be nominated for? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
