In seven of the past ten years of the Primetime and Creative Arts Emmys, HBO has collected more total nominations than any other television network. 2018, however, marked a turning point: it can be seen as the year Netflix firmly established itself as a dominant force, not just through the breadth of its content, but through its quality and emergence as a serious awards contender. For the first time in 17 years, HBO lost its comfortable lead as the most nominated network to a newcomer, but omnipresent threat in Netflix. The streaming company surged ahead with an impressive 112 nominations that year, surpassing HBO’s 108. However, when it came to actual wins, HBO narrowly retained its edge – claiming 40 awards to Netflix’s 39. This year, HBO enjoys a comfortable lead in Emmy nominations with its 142 compared to Netflix’s 120, Apple’s 79, and FX’s 35, but do any of its competitors have what it takes to outshine HBO’s nominations and take home more wins?
We don’t have to look back too far to see a network lead in nominations, but not in wins. In 2024, Netflix enjoyed a comfortable lead with 107 nominations compared to FX’s 93, but it was FX that took home the most wins with 36, a whopping 33% more than Netflix’s 24. While FX has some serious contenders in 2025 with “The Bear“ and “Dying For Sex,” “The Bear“ is in the ring with what fans are calling its weakest season yet, going head-to-head with a powerhouse return from HBO’s reigning comedy queen, “Hacks,” and Apple’s flashy newcomer “The Studio.“ In just about any other year, “Dying For Sex“ could – and likely would – dominate the Outstanding Limited Series and Acting categories. But in 2025, it faces a teenage force of nature: “Adolescence.“ The powerhouse contender of the year from Netflix across many of the Outstanding Limited categories, “Adolescence“ is likely to block “Dying For Sex“ from any meaningful wins, killing the network’s chances of going back-to-back with the title of most Emmy wins in a given year. Threat Level: non-existent for FX to pass HBO in wins this year.
All eyes at Netflix are on “Adolescence,“ the centerpiece of its Emmy push. With 13 nominations and clear frontrunners in most of its races, “Adolescence“ has the highest chance of raking in the most wins for the network. “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story“ and “Black Mirror“ also have 11 and 10 nominations each, respectively, but neither is a frontrunner at this time in any of their races. With all its eggs in “Adolescence’s“ basket, it’s unlikely Netflix has enough steam to surpass HBO in wins.
Suppose anyone’s giving HBO a run for its money, it’s Apple. Its top two shows, “Severance“ and “The Studio,“ have amassed a combined 50 nominations, leading the pack in many of their races, and have each experienced critical and commercial success this year; so when it comes to Emmy wins, Apple stands as HBO’s most formidable challenger. And that’s before you get to Apple’s dark horses – “Shrinking,” “Slow Horses,“ and “Presumed Innocent“ – each with just enough buzz to sneak off with a trophy or two. Although Apple sits third in total nominations, it has a real chance to achieve something unprecedented: emerging as the year’s most awarded network.
But HBO isn’t giving up without a fight. Alongside “Adolescence“ and “Dying For Sex,” “The Penguin“ dominated the Limited Series categories, particularly the Craft nominations. With high chances to win many of the Creative Arts slots, even competing against itself in many categories, “The Penguin“ is sure to be a juggernaut for HBO in Emmy wins. And one can never count out “The White Lotus.“ In a divisive third season, its chances for a clean sweep are low, but wins are still likely to come in many categories, adding to HBO’s competitiveness in this year’s race.
2025 could very well be the Year Of The Apple. With critically acclaimed series like “Severance“ and “The Studio“earning a combined 50 nominations, Apple is poised to stage a 2018-style Netflix upset, potentially overtaking both HBO and Netflix in total wins. But HBO isn’t backing down easily. Its two most nominated titles, “The Penguin“ and “The White Lotus,“ have together garnered 47 nominations, keeping the race tight. While HBO typically dominates the field at the Emmys with the most nominations, there has been four instances in the past ten years where most nominations do not translate to most wins: in 2024, where Netflix had the most nominations, but FX had the most wins; in 2021, where HBO had the most nominations but Netflix had the most wins; and in 2020 and 2018, where Netflix had the most nominations but HBO had the most wins. While FX and Netflix are underdogs in many categories, all eyes will be on Apple at the Emmys to see if they can steal the show away from HBO.
Which network do you think will win the most Emmys this year? Does Apple, Netflix, or FX have what it takes to overtake HBO? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast, where we interview Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discuss the race.
