It feels as if this year’s fall festival season has been more top-heavy with buzzy titles than we’ve been used to seeing. Whether it’s a matter of getting back to pre-pandemic heights or just a very special year we’re in the midst of, it’s an exciting time to be following film. Most years, it seems the top prize at Toronto Film Festival, the People’s Choice Award, is down to a few titles, but this year there are six that all have a reasonable case to take the award. While Toronto has two runner-up spots that films can occupy, predicting the top prize seems the trickiest task at the moment.
Besides the obvious frontrunner for the International People’s Choice Award “La Bola Negra,” the other Cannes title which got a second life at the fall festivals is Jordan Firstman’s debut, “Club Kid.” In fact, even more so than “La Bola Negra,” the fall festival showing seemed to be the best the film has seen so far. What many were considering a fringe awards contender and minor fall release has now confirmed itself as something that will be among many’s favorites of the year. Relative to what Toronto tends to award, it feels like an exact match with their usual winners. Films with prominent child characters alone tend to do well here, (“Hamnet,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “The Fabelmans”) and with how much the film has been bringing around young star Reggie Absolom, it certainly hopes to play into this charm. Overall, the film is a total crowdpleaser, funny, emotional, and grounded enough to really linger with people. It has all the trappings of a usual winner; the only drawbacks could be it potentially being too slight, or the humor being too niche and Internet-leaning. However, with how well it’s been capturing the hearts of people of all types and backgrounds, it can easily overcome any such hurdles.
Despite all the buzz and excitement around Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine,” something about that energy feels not strong enough for it to be a TIFF People’s Choice winner. It’ll be seen and liked enough to likely place, but for what’s considered by many to not be McDonagh’s best, it would be strange to see it win such a major festival prize with its competition. That being said, this skepticism is all vibes-based. The film is so buzzy and a top awards contender, so it’d be foolish to outright dismiss it as a possible winner here. As always with McDonagh’s work, with its wit and humor it’ll likely be broadly-enjoyed and appreciated. However, that lightning-strike buzz that radiated out of the screenings for his last two films doesn’t seem as strong here.
One film that did make that kind of eye-catching splash after its Telluride premiere was “Elsinore,” and the reception at TIFF has been similarly warm. The Andrew Scott-led drama is classic TIFF programming, and frankly it’s the kind of film that typically places, if not wins the People’s Choice. Following actor Ian Charleson confronting his mortality through theater, the Andrew Scott performance alone has made this one of the must see breakouts of the fall festival season. While the film is making most of its audiences cry, a fair vocal group are quite cynical toward how it tells its story and how effective it truly is. These criticisms exist for most movies on this list and have existed for past TIFF winners, but for whatever reason the discussion around this film feels particularly loud. That being said, these types of criticisms don’t stop films from winning here, and the pedestal of a Toronto win feels like a cause for higher-brow critics to predictably turn on it. Enough people are getting swept up in the film and the lead performance for it to surely at least place.
Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut” is another film which has had its Telluride buzz bleed into this festival. Topped off with A24 giving out custom Playbills to the audience, it became one of the most talked-about titles of the last few weeks. The mid-movie applause for Julianne Moore from Telluride didn’t seem to be the peak of its buzz, as the Toronto screenings were just as excited by the film. It has all the makings of a Toronto winner, with its movie stars, great script, and overall comedic appeal. We’ll see if the zaniness of the humor that has put off a vocal minority of critics costs it a win here, but the love for the film is strong enough for it to be a shock if it doesn’t at least place.
For another film people are already being cynical toward, with much more baggage, Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” was certainly the buzziest world premiere of the festival. The depiction of Sylvester Stallone during the making of “Rocky” exploded in its first screening, immediately putting it into the conversation for the People’s Choice. Every year, at least one film of the three placements is one that premiered at the festival, and this is by far the likeliest option if that trend were to continue. That alone keeps it in the winning conversation; there’s an excitement to being at a premiere that’s infectious and inflates one’s perception of the quality. Whether this is enough to get it the top spot, we will have to see, but it at least makes it a fair contender. If it does take the prize, it instantly rockets up into the awards race. So for those not wanting the “Green Book” alum to return to the awards conversation, you should definitely root for the other films on this list.
The last film worth mentioning, and a dark horse of sorts, is another TIFF premiere, Bassam Tariq’s “Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.” The acclaimed thriller has been probably the second buzziest premiere of the festival, albeit the more respected of the two films. With the love the film has received – as well as the good will for star Mahershala Ali and director Bassam Tariq – it could sneak into one of the runner-up spots. The buzz and pedigree of the film doesn’t seem high enough to overwhelm the heavy competition, but placing in the top three will be a great badge heading into its forthcoming release. It’s a big year for the festival and a competitive year for the awards, which makes it all the more exciting to follow and try to predict.
What are you predicting to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
