After an abundance of controversy surrounding the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Golden Globes have undergone significant changes in recent years, from the complete membership overhaul that led to significantly more international voting members to the somewhat recent additions of categories like Cinematic and Box Office Achievement last year and Best Podcast this year. The former has been particularly relevant to the new Golden Globes, as every year it seems a smaller international film overperforms in major categories. Look no further than Alma Poysti’s acting nomination for “Fallen Leaves” or Payal Kapadia’s director nomination for “All We Imagine As Light.” Though these nominations are not always reflective of awards to come (both “Fallen Leaves” and “All We Imagine As Light” blanked at the Oscars), it is still fascinating how much more international these awards have become. And in fact, the Globes’ more foreign taste these past few years has translated into major changes in their winners. “Anatomy of a Fall” winning Screenplay and “Flow” winning Animated Feature may have seemed tempting to cast aside as outliers at the time, given how global these awards have become, but both eventually triumphed at the Oscars. “Flow” in particular is a fascinating case because its only victory over its biggest competitor, “The Wild Robot,” came at the Golden Globes. There are several films that stand to surge in a big way this year such as “No Other Choice” and “The Secret Agent,” while others that may have performed better with the old membership of the Hollywood Foreign Press are on shakier ground, like “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” You can read the Next Best Picture team’s Golden Globe nomination predictions here.
This year, I took the liberty of compiling an aggregate of 64 Golden Globes voters’ Letterboxd ratings to better understand the voting body’s temperature on 2025’s standout titles. This spreadsheet ranking can be accessed here. Note that a high average rating alone does not indicate strength, as films must be both well-received and highly visible. Thus, the metric I used for this ranking was the number of Letterboxd ratings the film received that were four stars or above out of 5. Additionally, this metric is only helpful for categories like Best Motion Picture – Drama, Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, and Best Animated Feature. In the acting categories, visibility is more important given how many respected actors are competing for films with mixed reviews.
Here are a few key takeaways from my spreadsheet…
1. Underestimate “The Secret Agent” At Your Own Peril
“The Secret Agent” was the biggest surprise of this spreadsheet for me. Not only does it have the third-highest average rating of any 2025 film—just behind “Silent Friend” and “One Battle After Another“—but it also boasts a 4.32 rating, making it one of the year’s most widely screened films. In fact, it has the second-most 4-star or higher ratings! Golden Globes voters are clearly watching and loving “The Secret Agent.” This passion, combined with Wagner Moura becoming a clear frontrunner in Best Drama Actor and “The Secret Agent” gaining more traction as a Best Picture threat, makes a very compelling case for a nomination in Best Motion Picture – Drama. If the last slot is between that and “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” I’d place my bets on the former. And in general, all four of NEON’s main priorities are well positioned to be nominated in their respective Best Motion Picture categories; they all boast among the year’s highest average scores!
2. “Wicked: For Good” Is In Trouble
“Wicked: For Good’s” chances of winning awards dropped when its review embargo ended. While it is doing well at the box office and is beloved by audiences, its critical reception is uncomfortably lukewarm. Though PGA and Critics’ Choice nominations are still fairly attainable, it needs the Golden Globe nomination here to stay in the conversation. But with 25 ratings, it has now dipped below a 3.0 on the Golden Globe voter aggregate. Only three voters gave it four stars or higher! Now, the first “Wicked” received an average score of 3.28 from this sample, but the crucial difference is that 19 of 37 voters rated it four stars or higher. “Wicked: For Good” does not seem to have the same fervor behind it as its predecessor. It can still land a nomination, though, as films like “Jay Kelly” and “The Testament of Ann Lee” are not exactly adored by this voting body either.
3. “Arco” Can Upset “KPop Demon Hunters”
Following “KPop Demon Hunters‘” win at NYFCC on Tuesday, many understandably jumped in to say that “KPop Demon Hunters” will handily sweep the animated film awards—aside from BAFTA, which it is ineligible for. However, I maintain that “Arco” is still in this fight. My sample of Golden Globe voters seems fairly lukewarm toward the energetic Sony Pictures Animation film, with an average rating of 3.18. Only three of the seventeen voters gave it more than four stars. The sample size is admittedly small, but given that it is Netflix’s most-watched film of all time, visibility is in its favor. Comparatively, “Arco” has an average score of 3.87, with 10 out of 15 voters rating it four stars or higher. It is certainly possible that my sample did not accurately capture the number of HUNTR/X fans in the Golden Globes! However, all I am saying is that this race is not as locked up as it appears.
4. Despite Being A Legend, Daniel Day-Lewis Is Unlikely To Happen For “Anemone”
Daniel Day-Lewis made his grand return to acting with his son’s debut film “Anemone.” While he has been praised across the board for his performance, this hype has not seemed to convince Golden Globe members to seek out the film. Of my sample of 64 voters, only 4 watched “Anemone.” And did these select few at least like it? The answer is a resounding no, as the film has an average score of 1.88—the lowest out of any film in my chart. There are acting contenders in films with mixed scores, like Jeremy Allen White in “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” and Julia Roberts in “After the Hunt,” but both of their films have 20+ ratings. If voters are not watching “Anemone,” it may not matter that Day-Lewis is one of the greatest living actors, turning in another fantastic performance.
5. “One Battle After Another” Continues To Be Unstoppable
This is hardly an insight I can attribute to my spreadsheet: anyone who has been paying even half-attention to the awards race this year knows that “One Battle After Another” is our frontrunner. However, I do find it interesting just how dominant the film is with voters here. It has the second-highest average score in the chart, sitting at a whopping 4.39. For perspective on how critical these voters are with their ratings, it is the only film competing in the Comedy or Musical category with an average above 4.0. Its main competition, “Marty Supreme,” has a respectable but notably lower score of 3.98. “One Battle After Another” also has the most ratings above four stars and the most logs of the year. It has won top prizes at the Gothams and at NYFCC so far, and it shows no signs of stopping its awards trajectory here. The question at this point is not whether “One Battle After Another” will win here, but by how much.
What are your predictions for this year’s nominations? Is there anything in the sheet that surprises you or catches your attention? Do you have any “No Guts, No Glory” predictions? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account. You can read the Next Best Picture team’s Golden Globe nomination predictions here.
You can follow Amy and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @AmyHayneKim
