Now that we’ve had time to look over this year’s Emmy nominations, the work of the Television Academy speaks volumes about where their minds are now regarding our potential winners. What series were under-nominated? Which series surprisingly overperformed? Could any of these factors play into which series or performer reigns victorious come the night of the Emmys telecast? Let’s take a look at what we can deduce from the nominations, both in what races are seemingly over and which are neck and neck.
“The Pitt” Season 2 Is Winning Drama Series
What we all assumed the moment “The Pitt” season 1 won Drama Series last September has come to fruition. “The Pitt” season 2 is our nominations leader this year, with a whopping 25 Emmy nominations, up from 13 in its freshman season. It dominated the Outstanding Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, taking up 3/7 and 4/7 of the total slots, respectively. The one miss, if you can even call it that, is the show’s inability to get multiple episodes nominated in directing. However, it still received two nominations in writing. And considering it expanded in practically every other category — especially with the acting branch — I see no reason to doubt it now. There is still a long campaign to go, but “The Pitt” continues to be the show to beat.
The Race Between Rhea Seehorn vs. Keri Russell Just Got Closer
While we have largely taken Rhea Seehorn’s Emmy win for “Pluribus” as a given, Keri Russell is now well-positioned for an upset following the performance of “The Diplomat” season 3. The show earned 10 total Emmy nominations (up from 2 last year), 4 of which were for acting. “Pluribus” was no slacker either, with eighteen total Emmy nominations and five acting nominations. Still, one has to wonder if the Emmys being significantly more receptive to “The Diplomat” season 3 will improve Russell’s chances at winning Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series. After all, while Seehorn won CCA and GG, Russell beat her out at the Actor Awards, which is the only awards precursor with voter overlap. At the moment, I’m sticking with Seehorn because “Pluribus” still feels like the clear runner-up in Outstanding Drama Series and because anyone passionate about the show would be passionate about this performance.
Drama Supporting Actor Could Go In Any Number Of Ways
Oh, Tom Pelphrey. What once seemed like a fairly easy win to call for the Daytime Emmy winner considering the passion behind his heartbreaking performance is now an incredibly splintered race. I’m still wrapping my head around the snub for “Task” in Outstanding Drama Series for a show that got no other Emmy nominations besides the top prize. Considering the show landed nominations in Writing, Directing, and Lead Actor, Pelphrey is absolutely still in this race. However, Patrick Ball and Shawn Hatosy from “The Pitt” make compelling arguments as standouts from what looks like far and away the Drama Series frontrunner — as long as they don’t split the vote. Carlos Manuel Vesga is in the presumed runner-up, “Pluribus,” but his presence in the first half of the show is minimal, and his performance is both brilliant and quite subtle. Billy Crudup has won twice for “The Morning Show,” but this year, he is the show’s lone nominee. The Emmys love “Slow Horses” and have given it one above-the-line win two years in a row, so I would be strongly considering Jack Lowden had he not missed for the show’s previous season (with significantly more material, mind you). Truly, the only actor I’m counting out of this race is Gerran Howell, solely because his costars have more material and more buzz surrounding their performances. I have Hatosy currently because he is the more respected actor from “The Pitt” and is already an Emmy winner for this role.
It’s “Widow’s Bay” vs. “Hacks”
“Hacks” broke the record for the most Emmy nominations for a comedy season with 24 nominations. It landed practically every acting nomination it could have, with the acting branch historically the coldest on the show and the quickest to snub it, garnering a whopping ten acting nominations. Yet the race for Outstanding Comedy Series is far from over, with Apple TV’s late-breaking “Widow’s Bay” still firmly in the hunt with nineteen Emmy nominations, the most for any freshman series this year. It managed to get six actors nominated, including Dale Dickey. Her nomination, in particular, is an impressive feat, considering her most talked-about moment comes from an episode that aired outside the eligibility period, indicating voters were actively watching and loving “Widow’s Bay” as it aired. Ultimately, this is a question of whether the Emmys will prefer to reward an excellent conclusion to a show they have historically loved or an exciting first season to a show destined to be one of their perpetual favorites. If this is a close race, the key awards to look out for at the Creative Arts Emmys will be Casting. “Widow’s Bay” should have the edge in the former as a freshman show, but if “Hacks” manages to win that, it wins Series. If Casting does go to “Widow’s Bay,” I suspect this will be a tough call until the bitter end. Since this race does feel reminiscent of “Severance” vs. “The Pitt” last year, I’m tentatively going with the buzzy new comedy.
Comedy Supporting Actor is Anyone’s Game
Harrison Ford should probably have an Emmy by now for “Shrinking.” The fact that he doesn’t, and that his show failed to expand on any above-the-line nominations from last year, is fairly concerning for his chances. But who would win this category? Stephen Root feels bold unless you’re predicting a sweep for “Widow’s Bay” that includes Kate O’Flynn and Matthew Rhys, and even then, coattail supporting wins happen less often than you’d think. Something similar can be said for Paul W. Downs, who has his fans but was snubbed for the previous season of “Hacks.” Colman Domingo was once again nominated as the sole representation for “The Four Seasons,” and one has to wonder if his profile could push him to a win. Nick Offerman is a prolific television actor and is also nominated for “Death by Lightning,” but would it not be strange for him to win for “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” when his more talked-about costars Elle Fanning and Michelle Pfeiffer seem likely to lose? “Abbott Elementary” had a hell of a comeback this season, regaining nominations for Directing and Tyler James Williams, even if it lost Sheryl Lee Ralph in the process. Could Williams eke out an upset? Or could it be Ford’s own costar, Michael Urie, who was nominated over him at CCA for season 2 and outright won the category? Your guess is as good as mine, but as much as it feels silly to keep predicting Ford at this point, I just can’t bring myself to switch off of him.
It’s “DTF St. Louis” vs. “Beef”
At long last, we have clarity on the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series race! “Beef” and “DTF St. Louis” were the only miniseries to receive nominations in both Writing and Directing, making this a clear race between those two shows. Although “Beef” has long felt like the de facto frontrunner, it surprisingly underperformed on Emmy nominations morning when it missed nominations for Cailee Spaeny in Supporting Actress and Music Composition. Its most impressive feat was earning two directing nominations in a category of four. Meanwhile, “DTF St. Louis” had an incredible showing, earning five acting nominations — the most out of any Limited Series. The main trio of David Harbour, Linda Cardellini, and Jason Bateman was heavily predicted, and Richard Jenkins is more than respected enough to get in off of name recognition. But 29-year-old Joy Sunday landing a nomination proves that these “DTF St. Louis” nominations were not mere namechecks; there is legitimate passion behind this quirky love triangle/murder mystery. “Beef” season 2 may feel more prominent in cultural osmosis, but much of that conversation has been dominated by somewhat unfavorable comparisons to its first season. This race too should come down to Casting, but I suspect that the steadily growing support for “DTF St. Louis” will edge out the second season of “Beef.”
Will Rhea Seehorn finally win her first Emmy? Will “The Pitt” run it back again this year? Which race is the closest to call? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account, and check out our latest Emmy winner predictions here.
