In classic “The White Lotus” fashion, one week of chaos stretched into eight weeks of viewers wondering, “Who dies?” Meanwhile, the guests have finally checked out of “The White Lotus,” leaving us all to wonder, when it comes to the Emmys, “Who wins?” The third season of HBO’s hit series was subjected to mixed reviews, with some claiming an unearned finale monologue or even an unsatisfying ending. Still, one thing is (almost) for certain: the cast of “The White Lotus” will dominate the Emmy conversation over the next few months. Who will take home the gold in September?
SURE BETS
The ladies of “The White Lotus” have been stealing scenes and the Monday morning water cooler talk since week one. Parker Posey single-handedly drove Lorazepam’s largest Google searches spike on record on March 10th, the day after the season’s fourth episode. But it’s Carrie Coon’s consistently strong performance that I expect to be rewarded come the Emmys. It’s highly likely she locked in her first Emmy win during the season finale, where her performance as Laurie culminated in an emotional monologue bringing forward an exhaustive realization for her character that while religion, work, and motherhood have all had their moments in her life, it’s time that has given her friendships and life itself true meaning. The juxtaposition of her Olympic-level sprint ditching those same friends during the shooting was an incredible acting choice by Coon, noticed by any and every New Yorker. While I expect a strong showing from multiple cast members of “The White Lotus” in the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama category, it’s Coon that’s a frontrunner and will likely garner an overdue win.
The men of “The White Lotus” have a bit tougher external competition, with Trammel Tillman from “Severance” putting in his career-best work in season two. However, Walton Goggins’s deeply tragic portrayal of a man unable to forgive and recognize the good in his life will ultimately bring him his first Emmy win (also ridiculously overdue). Rick’s unresolved trauma caused collateral damage to Chelsea, the yang to his yin. During moments of brief clarity this season beautifully exhibited by Goggins, Rick seemed to realize harboring a lifelong grudge was doing more harm than the potential respite of revenge. I expect the Emmy voters to recognize the emotional work Goggins put in this season with a win, and allowing “The White Lotus” to return to its season one form of dominating the Supporting Acting in a Drama categories.
LONG SHOTS
In what will become a common theme of this section, we will likely see “The White Lotus” earn a nomination for Outstanding Drama Series but fall short of either Apple TV’s second season of “Severance” or Max’s new hit show “The Pitt” this season. Season one saw a win for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, but season two pushed the series into the Drama categories, falling short in 2024 to “Succession’s” final season. “Severance” may very well be the new Emmy darling, taking over for “Succession” as “The White Lotus’s” biggest head-to-head challenger, but don’t underestimate “The Pitt” which just concluded its highly acclaimed first season and has been the talk of the town the last several weeks as it continued to grow its audience through word of mouth.
Mike White has dominated the Directing and Writing categories for “The White Lotus’s” first two seasons, winning first for Outstanding Director and Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series in season one and following that up with nominations for both categories for season two, but this time for the Drama Series categories. We expect he’ll receive those same nominations again, but Ben Stiller’s stellar season two directing of “Severance” will likely throw off White’s chances of a repeat, with a probable win for either himself or Jessica Lee Gagne representing two of the series’ strongest episodes. While not a leader in the race, I still expect White to be recognized with a nomination and Max to pull out all the stops in the FYCs.
As said before, the same argument could be made for Writing in a Drama Series. Once again, Mike White will find himself in an uphill battle against “Severance” with Dan Erickson and “The Pitt,” likely for one of R. Scott Gemmill’s episodes he wrote. While White won Outstanding Writing for the first season, the unevenness of the third season’s storytelling will be compared to the tightness of “Severance’s” character-driven, mysterious second season and “The Pitt’s” real-time plotting and beloved characters for its freshman season. While a nomination is likely for White, I don’t expect a win for his third year in Writing.
With Sam Rockwell appearing in 50% of the third season, we can expect him to get nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, leaving the Guest Actor category down to just one likely nomination in Scott Glenn. Glenn gave a strong performance in his limited screen time, but his underdeveloped character will likely leave Emmy voters wanting something more. Compared to Robby Benson’s chilling portrayal of Dr. Mauer in “Severance,” or even Brad Dourif’s brief but audience-pleasing appearance on “The Pitt,” I expect a “The White Lotus” win to be a long shot in the Guest Actor category.
There are still a few expected wins in the acting categories for “The White Lotus” cast members of season three, but “Severance” may very well take “Succession’s” spot as the new Emmy darling starting with its second season, or “The Pitt” may be the new irresistible show on the block voters cannot ignore. Either way, for as beloved, acclaimed, and talked about as “The White Lotus” is, it still faces some significant competition come the Emmys.
Expected Wins
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Long Shots
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
What did you think of the third season of “The White Lotus?” Will the series dominate the stage at the Emmys as it has in years past? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast where we are conducting a number of interviews with Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discussing the race over the next couple of months.
