Compared with its sister Emmy category, Outstanding Comedy Series, which offers relatively few nomination slots for a new show this year, the race for Outstanding Drama Series is truly a race, with as many as half of its available slots truly up for grabs.
Of the eight series nominated in this category last year, only four have produced a new season and are eligible to return:
- “The Diplomat“ (Netflix)
- “Paradise“ (Hulu)
- “The Pitt“ (HBO Max)
- “Slow Horses“ (Apple TV)
Still, given the intense competition ahead, not all of them are guaranteed a return ticket. That’s because no fewer than eight series that have previously been nominated in this category are back to reclaim their slots, including Apple TV’s” The Morning Show,“ HBO Max’s “Euphoria“ & “The Gilded Age,“ and Netflix’s “Stranger Things.”
Yet each season’s nominations almost always produce at least one or two new series that shake up the race, challenging or even overtaking the presumed frontrunners (as “The Pitt“ did last year).
As you look over the new contenders, the first question you’ll probably ask is “Where’s ‘Heated Rivalry?‘” That cultural phenomenon is, sadly, ineligible for the Primetime Emmy Awards. To qualify, a series produced predominantly outside the U.S. must be a co-production between American and foreign partners before production begins. “Heated Rivalry“ was entirely funded by a Canadian company, with HBO Max signing on for distribution only after filming was complete (I know, I’m bummed too). But we’ve got a lot of promising newcomers to get excited about.
Although all eight nomination slots may be scooped up by returning shows, that scenario seems unlikely, given the quality and the heat under a number of this year’s freshman entries. So if you’re caught up on new episodes of your old favorites and are looking for what the next big Emmy drama contender might be, we’ve got ten of the best freshman drama series to put on your radar, along with a few comments as to where their awards strength (or weaknesses) lie.
“ALIEN: EARTH” (8 episodes) – Now Streaming On Hulu
Much as he did with bringing “Fargo” to television, Emmy winner Noah Hawley has approached this first TV series from the “Alien” franchise with the same philosophy: honoring the source material while bringing a fresh eye to it. “Alien: Earth” is set two years before the events of the 1979 film “Alien” and follows Wendy (Sydney Chandler), the first in a series of hybrid creatures that are synthetic yet contain key elements of human consciousness. Many of the familiar themes of “Alien” are here: humanity threatened by its own arrogance, while corporations continue to exploit humans for profit. Plus, Hawley has retained much of the look of the first two films, adding visual gravitas to the story.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Hawley earned four nominations in both the writing and directing categories for “Fargo,” so an additional nomination in either category would not be a total shock. Otherwise, at least for this first season, “Alien: Earth” is more likely to be a strong player in several below-the-line categories, particularly makeup, sound, and visual effects.
“DOWN CEMETERY ROAD” (8 episodes) – Now Streaming On Apple TV
Mick Herron’s 2003 mystery novel has been developed into a twisty thriller by “Slow Horses” writer Morwenna Banks, and much of the sensibility of that Emmy winner comes through in each episode. When a neighbor’s house explodes, and an injured young girl disappears after being taken to a hospital, art restorationist Sarah (Ruth Wilson) becomes obsessed with finding her. She consults a private detective who is soon murdered, but her case is taken over by the private eye’s tough-as-nails widow, Zoë (Emma Thompson), complete with spiky gray hair and a leather jacket. Together, they uncover a conspiracy that leads them up to the highest ranks of the British government. Though several critics noted that the series was not yet at the level of “Slow Horses,” its notices were nonetheless strong, with particular praise doled out for the performances of Thompson and Wilson.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Emmy recognition may be an uphill climb for the series, but it’s not an insurmountable one. Though “Down Cemetery Road” was bypassed during the winter set of TV awards, Apple has become increasingly adept at Emmy campaigns, and it may be difficult for actors, in particular, to resist a punked-out Emma Thompson.
“IT: WELCOME TO DERRY” (8 episodes) – Now Streaming On HBO Max
If you’ve ever wondered where the terrifying Pennywise the Clown came from, “Welcome to Derry” lays it all out for you. Designed as a prequel to the Stephen King novel and the 2017 & 2019 films, the series takes place in snowy Maine (naturally) in 1962, when a young runaway disappears after being picked up by a mysterious couple. The boy’s friends vow to get to the bottom of the mystery, but they are not nearly prepared for the otherworldly horror that they soon encounter. The series retains the novel’s themes of childhood innocence while weaving in critiques of racism and militarism. The reviews for the series were largely positive, with particular praise for the series’ craft elements.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Indeed, below the line seems the likeliest place for the series to find Emmy recognition, particularly in direction, production design, and visual effects. Series and acting nominations are probably a long shot at best, at least for this season.
“A KNIGHT OF THE SEVEN KINGDOMS” (6 episodes) – Now Streaming On HBO Max
If the tone of both “Game of Thrones” and “House of the Dragon” was largely dark and foreboding, this third drama in the “Game of Thrones” series is anything but. With a knight named Dunk (Peter Claffey) and a squire named Egg (Dexter Sol Ansell), there’s a playfulness to “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” in which kindness and empathy replace vengeance in the “Game of Thrones” vocabulary. A former squire himself, Dunk takes up the sword of his fallen knight, and as a new knight himself, he vows allegiance to the seven kingdoms while traveling from town to town to right wrongs and live the life of a good man. Critics responded with cheers for the refreshing new tone, praising the show’s technical achievements but also singling out the series’ writing and directing, as well as Claffey’s performance in the leading role.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Both “Game of Thrones” and “House of the Dragon” were Emmy powerhouses, so expect that pedigree to lift “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” slightly above many of its freshman rivals. Given the stiff competition from returning shows in above-the-line categories, the series is most likely to shine in tech categories.
“THE MADISON” (6 episodes) – Now Streaming On Paramount+
“The Madison” marks the 10th scripted series that Oscar-nominated writer Taylor Sheridan has produced for television since 2018, an incredibly prodigious output. The shining jewel among them is, of course, “Yellowstone,” whose success among viewers has prompted three spinoff series to date. Like that flagship series, “The Madison” centers on a family: the Clyburns, who, after a shocking family tragedy, decide to uproot from New York City and move to southwest Montana to recover and start anew. The series received mixed reviews from critics, but star Michelle Pfeiffer received much praise, and the series premiere garnered the largest audience of any Sheridan series to date.
EMMY OUTLOOK: It’s no secret that, while Sheridan shows have achieved enormous audience success, they have largely been bypassed at the Emmys. The nine scripted series prior to “The Madison” have received only 11 nominations, all in below-the-line categories, and none have won. If “The Madison” earns any nominations this year, it will most likely be in those tech categories as well. However, Pfeiffer, who has rarely appeared in a weekly series, will now have two shows on the air at the same time; in addition to “The Madison,” she looks to be a major contender for her new Apple TV sitcom, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” If Emmy history is a guide, there is often an afterglow for a performer when it’s deemed “her year,” and this may indeed be Pfeiffer’s time. It’s still a long shot, but she could be Sheridan’s first above-the-line player ever.
“PLURIBUS” (9 episodes) – Now Streaming On Apple TV
Coming off “Breaking Bad,” arguably one of the premier television series in the last 50 years, creator Vince Gilligan had a lot to live up to. Known for the originality of his ideas, he knew that he couldn’t come up with “X-Files 2” or “Better Call Saul 2” and still be true to his art. Enter “Pluribus” as an original concept for a dramatic series as original as has been seen in some time. Novelist Carol Sturka (Rhea Seehorn) is only one of a dozen people on earth who remain unaffected by an alien virus that has turned the rest of humanity into a complacent body that thinks with one mind and conforms to the wishes of the alien overseers. For Carol, who finds herself alone in her world, there is little choice but to seek out the other immune survivors in hopes of banding together to fight. Or, as the “Pluribus” title suggests, “Out of many, one.” Gilligan has achieved a number of breakthroughs with the series: he has created a queer hero whose job is to save humanity, and, narratively, he has designed several episodes that are essentially one-woman shows, an unheard-of idea in series television that has benefited both Seehorn and the audience. After one season, it’s too early to say whether “Pluribus” will join “Breaking Bad” as a television landmark, but based on these nine episodes, Gilligan seems well on his way.
EMMY OUTLOOK: This freshman drama may be the only series that has a chance of unseating “The Pitt” as this year’s Best Drama Series winner. Critics were over the moon (99% favorable on RT) for the series, and Emmy voters will likely follow suit in droves. Gilligan, who (incredibly) has yet to win a single Emmy for his writing and directing, stands a solid chance to win one or both this year, and his below-the-line teams are likely to earn nominations in numerous tech categories as well. Seehorn, who also has yet to win an Emmy, has swept most of the major winter awards for her performance and is the prohibitive favorite to win her first here. And don’t count out Karolina Wydra and Carlos Manuel Vesga for their supporting work, or Samba Schutte and Jeff Hiller in Guest Actor.
“PONIES” (8 episodes) – Now Streaming On Peacock
It’s 1977 Moscow, where Bea (Emilia Clarke) and Twila (Haley Lu Richardson) work anonymously as secretaries in the American Embassy until their husbands, who are envoys (i.e., spies), die under mysterious circumstances. Determined to learn more about their deaths, the pair seeks to go undercover and convinces their superiors that, as “Persons Of No Interest” (PONIs), no enemy would ever suspect them of being agents – a perfect cover. Critics widely praised the intelligence of the storyline, the deft blending of a spy thriller with a buddy adventure, and, particularly, the strong chemistry between the series’ two stars.
EMMY OUTLOOK: At a 96% approval rate on Rotten Tomatoes, “Ponies” has earned some of the season’s best reviews, and spy dramas that center on a team, from “The Americans” to “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” have recently scored with Emmy voters. But “Ponies” hasn’t yet had nearly the promotional push those series have, so its surest route to getting Emmy members to tune in may be to promote its two popular and likable stars. It may be one of those series that just take another year to reach its full potential among voters.
“SCARPETTA” (8 episodes) – Now Streaming On Prime Video
Less a down-and-dirty medical drama like “The Pitt” than a crime-based mystery, this Prime Video series follows in the honored tradition of the ’70s drama “Quincy, M.E.” by making a medical examiner its central hero. Based on the Patricia Cornwell book series, Nicole Kidman stars as Dr. Kay Scarpetta, the Chief Medical Examiner of the Commonwealth of Virginia, who has an uncanny ability to solve crimes through scientific analysis. Kay is aided by Pete Marino (Bobby Cannavale), her investigative partner, who is also married to her sister Dorothy (Jamie Lee Curtis), a children’s book author. Key to the mix are Kay’s FBI profiler husband, Benton (Simon Baker), and her queer niece, Lucy Farinelli-Watson (Ariana DeBose), a brilliant computer programmer. Reviews for the series were mixed, though critics praised its distinguished ensemble.
EMMY OUTLOOK: On one hand, there are few (if any) series this season that can boast three Oscar winners (Kidman, Curtis, DeBose), plus an Emmy winner (Cannavale) and nominee (Baker). Given that lineup, it may be assumed that the Actors Branch will want to give this one a look-see. In tight races, pedigree at times can offer an important leg up in getting seen. On the downside, though, if Emmy voters decide that there’s only room for one medical series in the Outstanding Drama Series lineup, that medical series ain’t going to be “Scarpetta.”
“TASK” (7 episodes) – Now streaming on HBO Max
What was so striking about Brad Ingelsby’s Emmy-winning series, “Mare of Easttown,” was not just that it was a crackerjack murder mystery; it is also remembered as a deeply moving portrait of a flawed detective and her inability to deal with her immense personal grief, even while being supported by the residents of her small Pennsylvania town. Ingelsby has returned to that state with his latest series, which centers on an FBI agent (Mark Ruffalo) and the burglar (Tom Pelphrey) whom he has been hunting, each of whom, in his own way, is searching for forgiveness and some kind of redemption. Critics were effusive in their praise, citing Ingelsby’s skillful writing and the layered lead performances of Ruffalo and Pelphrey.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Inglesby’s last series was right in the Academy’s wheelhouse, and there’s little reason to believe that “Task” won’t follow suit. The series was named one of the year’s 10 best programs by AFI and was nominated for the Critics’ Choice Award. CCA also nominated Pelphrey for his supporting work and Ruffalo for his Lead Actor performance, a nomination that was repeated at the Golden Globe Awards. “Task” definitely has some momentum, particularly for its actors, but the question remains as to whether that will be enough to squeeze “Task” into that eighth series slot.
“THE TESTAMENTS” (10 episodes) – Now Streaming On Hulu
Less than a year after the final episode of “The Handmaid’s Tale,” the authoritarian regime called Gilead has returned to TV screens in this sequel to Margaret Atwood’s landmark novel. Set four years after the events of the previous series, “The Testaments” marks the return of the now-redeemed Aunt Lydia (Ann Dowd) who is now managing the transition of the young girls of Gilead (the “Pinks”) into young women (the “Plums”), ready to be picked by the elite men for marriage or whatever the men’s pleasure might be. Among the many women about to become Plums, the series centers on two: Agnes (Chase Infiniti), whose calm demeanor masks a rebellious spirit, and Daisy (Lucy Halliday), who, raised in a free society, is more openly defiant.
EMMY OUTLOOK: Hard to tell. Reviews were generally favorable, but many felt that, aside from the lead performances, the series offered little that felt fresh. Infiniti, fresh off her Best Actress Oscar nomination, may be residually helped from that honor, and Dowd, who won for this role in 2017, is often an Emmy favorite. The real question is likely whether that would be enough for a Drama Series nomination. Will Emmy voters see “The Testaments” as a fresh new start for a beloved franchise, or will it be “been there, done that?”
What do you think are the big, new Emmy contenders this year for Outstanding Drama Series? What are some of your favorite shows you’ve watched this season so far? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast, where we are conducting a number of interviews with Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discussing the race over the next couple of months.
