With this month’s announcement of the 2026 Primetime Emmy nominations, social media has been abuzz with cries of joy and outrage over the surprises and perceived snubs in this year’s nominees. But now that the dust from the announcements has somewhat settled and the numbers have been tallied, it’s clear that we have front-runners in each of the three primary areas. “The Pitt,” “Hacks, “ and “Beef“ may have a very good night when the Emmys are given out on September 14th. The nomination haul for each series — 25, 24, and 16 nods respectively — is impressive. However, there is still no guarantee of victory, because each has a formidable contender (“Pluribus,” “Widow’s Bay,” and “DTF St. Louis“) breathing down its neck.
What’s equally evident, however, is that there are several key races whose outcomes aren’t as clear. Many high-profile categories come down to a head-to-head match between the top few contenders in several series and acting categories. These are the races that give Emmy prognosticators heartburn and Emmy viewers heart palpitations as the envelope containing the winner’s name is being opened.
Emmy fans will continue to debate who will win all the way to the fall, but here’s your chance to jump ahead of the pack. I’ve selected these five hotly contested categories to put on your Emmy radar, along with a few comments on where their award strengths (or weaknesses) may lie.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES – Oscar Isaac (“Beef”) vs. Matthew Rhys (“The Beast In Me”)
Though early frontrunners have already begun to emerge in the lead acting categories in both Comedy and Drama Series arenas, the Limited Series acting races are another matter entirely. While Sarah Snook (“All Her Fault”) is facing four formidable challengers in the Lead Drama Actress race, the Lead Actor contest is quickly turning into a two-man contest with an outcome that’s far from certain. After receiving glowing reviews for his portrayal of the general manager of a country club whose life is falling apart in the second iteration “Beef,” Oscar Isaac quickly appeared to be the man to beat for this, with his second Emmy nomination. But in the past month, Matthew Rhys, who has been riding the crest of acclaim for his comedy series “Widow’s Bay,” has found renewed interest in his dramatic performance as a sociopath in “The Beast in Me,” which premiered way back in November. The fact that, with this nomination, Rhys becomes the first actor since John Goodman in 1995 to score two Lead Actor nominations in a single Emmy year has put an additional spotlight on the Welsh actor and turned this race into a nail-biter.
EMMY OUTLOOK: The impressive haul of nominations for “Beef” — 16 in all, suggesting widespread support with above- and below-the-line voters will likely give Isaac the edge for now. But Rhys is the wild card in the race, and the fact that he is considered by many the early front-runner in the Comedy Lead Actor race will likely be a factor here. Will voters who cast their ballots for him in Comedy really feel the need to vote for him again here? That’s the great unknown that will keep this race tantalizing until September.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES – Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) vs. Kate O’Flynn (“Widow’s Bay”) vs. Michelle Pfeiffer (“Margo’s Got Money Troubles”)
Last year, on her fourth try, Hannah Einbinder finally won her elusive Emmy for her performance as comedy writer Ava Daniels in “Hacks.” With two strong episodes this season — “Montecito,” in which Ava and Deborah (Jean Smart) pose as a lesbian couple in order to snag a prized outfit, and the moving series finale — Einbinder is well-positioned to defend her crown. But her promising path to a second win may be thwarted by the rapid rise of “Widow’s Bay” and its co-star Kate O’Flynn. The British stage actress proved to be a scene-stealer and the moral compass for the horror comedy, where her role became increasingly crucial as the season progressed. Standing in the wings should the front-runners split the vote, though, is Michelle Pfeiffer, who received strong critical acclaim for her comedy series debut as dysfunctional mama-bear Shyanne Millet in “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” Seeing a bona fide movie star excelling in a comedy role far from her dramatic image could prove irresistible to Emmy voters as well.
EMMY OUTLOOK: As much of a strong contender as each woman may be, each has a possible strike against her. Emmy voters, for example, might feel that with her win last year, Einbinder has now been duly rewarded, so their interest may wander to someone new. To that end, we still don’t know how deep the love for “Widow’s Bay” might extend: can it reach the show’s supporting actors outside of Matthew Rhys? O’Flynn’s path is further complicated by the presence of co-star and fellow nominee Dale Dickey, who may prove to be a sentimental favorite and split the “Widow’s Bay” vote. Pfeiffer, who was the belle of the ball when “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” premiered in April, now finds herself supplanted by a new fan favorite from a competing Apple TV series. She still has a path to win, but it’s getting very narrow.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES – Patrick Ball (“The Pitt”) vs Tom Pelphrey (“Task”) vs Shawn Hatosy (“The Pitt”)
It is a truism that, even when Emmy voters like a freshman show, it may take a second successful season to recognize the entirety of its cast. Last year, for example, “The Pitt” earned only three acting nominations in its rookie season — Noah Wyle in Lead, Katherine LaNasa in Supporting and Shawn Hatosy in Guest. All won. For Season 2, voters have rectified that, bestowing the show’s cast with 13 acting nods, including three in the Supporting Actor/Drama Series category. Hatosy returns (this time bumped up to Supporting from Guest), while Patrick Ball as the back-from-rehab Dr. Frank Langdon and Welsh actor Gerran Howell as all-American Dr. Dennis Whitaker earned their first nominations. All will face a substantial challenge from past nominee Tom Pelphrey, whose performance as the leader of an armed heist crew in “Task” garnered stellar critical reviews. An added factor: both Ball and Pelphrey earned 2026 Critics’ Choice nominations as the year’s Best Supporting Actor.
EMMY OUTLOOK: As good as Howell is in “The Pitt,” Ball and Pelphrey’s Critics’ Choice nominations, plus Hatosy’s Emmy win last year, make this essentially a three-man race. On paper, it would look like Pelphrey has the advantage, given a possible vote split among “The Pitt” actors. And it may very well turn out that way, given that Pelphrey is essentially a co-lead in “Task” and has nearly the same amount of screen time as lead Mark Ruffalo for six of the seven episodes. Yet, “Task” failed to garner an expected nomination in Drama Series, suggesting possible weakness. For that reason, I suspect that Ball stands slightly ahead of the pack, after his season-long attempt to get back in the good graces of Noah Wyle’s Dr. Robby became the heartbreaking source of much of the drama in Season 2. But don’t count Hatosy out just yet — Emmy voters love repeat winners. This one could go any which way, but I’m saying Ball for now.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES – Leslie Bibb (“Hacks”) vs. Kaitlin Olson (“Hacks”) vs. Cherry Jones (“Hacks”)
Three-actor showdowns appear to be quite the Emmy thing this year, but it’s rare when all three emerge from the same series. That prospect was almost inevitable, however, with five of the seven nominees in this year’s Guest Actress/Comedy category all coming from “Hacks.” Laurie Metcalf, who won this category for “Hacks” in 2022, and first-time nominee Lauren Weedman both had memorable moments this season. Still, their screen time was much more limited than the category’s front-runners. Cherry Jones and Leslie Bibb play a queer couple in the acclaimed “Montecito” episode, but each plays a very different type: Jones, the sage veteran of the relationship, and Bibb, the bubbly instigator. And Kaitlin Olson returns to the role of Deborah’s long-suffering daughter DJ, who finally resolves her series-long conflict with mom while competing on “The Amazing Race.”
EMMY OUTLOOK: I haven’t forgotten the other two formidable nominees in the category: Betty Gilpin portrays the doyenne of the family that founded the town, who plots the death of her evil husband in the show with the hottest hand, “Widow’s Bay.” And Jamie Lee Curtis, who won this award in 2024 for her performance in the legendary “Fishes” episode of “The Bear,” is back, and as they always warn in awards predicting: once a winner, always a threat. Not to mention the prospect of a five-way “Hacks” split being a very real possibility. But I think it comes down to Jones, Bibb, or Olson for the win, and I’m putting my money on Olson on her fourth nomination as DJ to get the Emmy for her funny and moving work over the series’ five seasons.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES – Vince Gilligan (“Pluribus” – “We Is Us”) vs. Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman & R. Scott Gemmill (“The Pitt” – “1:00 PM”) 
They are two of the most memorable dramatic episodes of the season, and they couldn’t be more different in tone. The first, “1:00 PM,” Episode 7 of the second season of “The Pitt,” is quiet and focused in its depiction of a forensic medical exam of a young rape victim (Tina Ivlev). Charge nurse Dana Evans (Katherine LaNasa), as the only certified examiner on the shift, takes the victim through the exam step-by-step, acknowledging the victim’s trauma while emphasizing the total control the patient has in submitting to it. If “1:00 PM” is microscopic in its finely rendered detail, “We Is Us,” the pilot of “Pluribus,” is vast in its scope, centering on how a virus from space has taken away individual agency from all but 13 people on Earth. One of them is curmudgeon Carol Sturka (Rhea Seehorn), who, suddenly feeling alone and terrified, must face a world filled with smiling, compliant people determined to take Carol’s agency from her. It seems only appropriate that these two very different but unforgettable scripts be this category’s front-runners for the Emmy.
EMMY OUTLOOK: It’s well known in the industry that, for all his success with “The X-Files,” “Breaking Bad,” and “Better Call Saul,” Vince Gilligan has never won an Emmy for either his writing or directing. That should change at least on the directing side this year for his work on the “Pluribus” pilot, where he is a strong favorite. His quest for that elusive writing Emmy, though, is running up against the emotional power of Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman & R. Scott Gemmill’s potent script for “The Pitt.” Adding to the complication are the category’s other nominees, which include former Emmy winners Will Smith (“Slow Horses“) and Brad Ingelsby (“Task“), who can’t be easily dismissed. I’m picking Gilligan for now — the imaginative vision of the “Pluribus” pilot is difficult to ignore — but this one could just as easily flip.
We’re still less than two months away from the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards, which means there’s plenty of time for these races to shift. What do you think are the toughest races to call at the moment? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account and check out the NBP team’s up-to-the-moment Emmy predictions here.
