It must be the week before Oscar nominations because the frenetic uncertainty that lingers in the air of awards season has reached an absolute peak. That uncertainty is felt especially this week, in front of a backdrop of chaos, loss, and grief around Hollywood was engulfed in historic wildfires that quickly and gravely reminded us just how superficial so much of what we have come to call “awards season” is. This is not close to the first time that the Oscars have had to take a back seat to disasters of the day- the flood of 1936, the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968, and- freshest in our memory- the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Like those times in history, all aspects of life miraculously go on, including the Oscars, and we must do what we can to look to them as a force of strength and unity in the currently threatened community. Whether by this hope or the simple human desire for a distraction from the trauma, let’s turn to this season’s Oscar contenders that have the most uncertainty going into nomination morning- pushed back to a delayed January 23rd.
In an effort to organize my thoughts on these different films, I’ve organized them into three groups of four, each with different stakes on the line going into Oscar nominations.Â
- Four large contenders who are likely Best Picture nominees are anxious to see just how big of players they will be in the race.
- Four middle-tier films will likely range from 0-4 nominations, with the possibility of significant above-the-line representation.
- Four more movies are hoping to make their mark on nomination morning- and if they do, they just might do so to the tune of multiple nominations.
These distinctions are somewhat arbitrary, and the lines may very well blur between them. Still, it’s a helpful way to break things up as we assess what is realistically on the table for different 2024 films going into this year’s nominations. Let’s dig in!
Tier 1 – Big Contenders With High Ceilings
“Emilia Pérez,” “A Complete Unknown,” “The Substance,“ and “Dune: Part Two“ are all pretty assuredly going to be Best Picture nominees in a week’s time- each of them is likelier than not in the mathematical Model I co-created with my brother Mitchell to predict the Oscars. While they can take comfort in that fact, their ranges of nominations do vary quite a bit, with some especially high ceilings and worrisome low floors.Â
After nearly breaking records at the Golden Globes, where it won Best Comedy or Musical Film, and maxing out at other precursors, “Emilia Pérez“ has defied all doubt that it is a major contender this season. It is as close as you can get to a lock in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best International Feature, and Best Song. It’s not hard to see the Academy following the effusive industry-backed embrace of this movie that started all the way back at Cannes and vaulting it easily into double-digit nominations. In fact, tying the nomination record, fourteen nominatins is not out of the realm of possibility; it is ranked in the top ten in the current NBP predictions for fourteen nominations. On the other hand, though, it’s not impossible to imagine a much smaller haul: Karla Sofia Gascon is perhaps not the lock some think in a historically-packed Best Actress race (less than 50% in our Model at the time of writing), Selena Gomez comes up short in Supporting Actress, it gets shoved out of Best Adapted Screenplay, misses Best Cinematography and Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Sound. It’s in the 3rd-8th spots in many categories, and a particularly poor showing could halve its anticipated haul just like that.
If there’s a movie peaking right now besides “Emilia Pérez,” it’s probably “A Complete Unknown,“ the late-breaker that has enjoyed large overperformances at the Sound guilds, SAG, and DGA this past week. It now looks like a sure thing in Best Picture, alongside Best Actor and Best Sound. This one could be ripe for an Oscar overperformance in the case that stars align in Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (where both Fanning and Barbaro have precursor strength to point to), Best Adapted Screenplay- especially in the hypothetical above where “Emilia Pérez“ misses- and Best Production Design. Heck, what if Mangold repeats his DGA nomination? That’s seven or eight nominations, and we’re looking at perhaps a top-five Best Picture nominee.
Maybe the biggest head-scratcher this whole season awards-wise is “The Substance.“ Yes, it could show as quietly as people thought even a couple of months ago: making the cut in Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Actress, nothing more. On the other end of the spectrum- riding a wave of general goodwill, Demi Moore’s fabulous Golden Globe win and speech, and just enough edgy counter-cultural sentiment, “The Substance“ could pop in a significant way on nomination morning. In the best case, I’d say everything from Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Production Design are all possible on top of the locks. Indeed, the chances of a performance like this don’t look too destined after its relative under-performance on the Shortlists, where it missed categories like Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. Still, the energy could be pumped up at the perfect moment.
Finally, what felt like a true staple of 2024 in film when I wrote about it back in April in “Dune: Part Two“ has tragically dwindled quite a bit. It still looks like it’ll cross the finish line of nomination morning in reasonably good shape; it is definitely a shell of what it was imagined to be in the early summer. It’ll get a good handful of nominations, but the last few months have taught us to think twice before betting optimistically on the awards chances of “Dune: Part Two.” Villeneuve fell out of the Best Director race, no acting performances got precursors at all, and Zimmer’s score was ruled ineligible at the Oscars. It’s been a steady fall since the spring, which leaves us wondering how many of its less-assured nominations- Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, and more- might continue to fall through the cracks.
Tier 2 – Season-Long Staples Trying To Avoid Their Floor
It should be noted that many of these acclaimed films currently struggling to different extents to make their mark at the Oscars center around specifically non-White or non-Western identity, which fits into problematic problems of recognition and representation with the Oscars. Unfortunately, these films are all fighting tides that may leave them nomination-less.
“Nickel Boys“ has been a little quieter this season than even some folks anticipated and is currently very precarious in the Oscar race. It could still be feasible to make it into Best Picture, but with only Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography nods feeling likelier than not, there’s room to worry about it missing the cut. While director RaMell Ross and Supporting Actress Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor are not impossible, the ceiling continues to lower for “Nickel Boys.”
The same is true to an even greater extent for “Sing Sing,“ which is the season’s biggest loser so far next to “Dune: Part Two.“ Once predicted to be the consensus Best Picture winner in the summer, “Sing Sing“ has been continually forced out of the major awards conversation as the season has developed, culminating in a worst-case scenario with the Golden Globes and SAG. Colman Domingo in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay still feels solid, but honestly, everything else is currently in question going into nomination morning. While much has been made of A24’s questionable release plan- leading to a simple visibility problem- the mystifying fall of “Sing Sing“ is one of the season’s major headlines.
Ask many folks, and the nominations they’ll be most excited to see show up are those for Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers.“ A spring hit that became an audience phenomenon, “Challengers“ has re-emerged on the bubble of Oscar consideration. It’s performed quite well so far, especially at technical guilds, and it is benefitting from a relatively weak pack in Best Original Screenplay. By the math in our Model, “Challengers“ is predicted for four nominations: Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, and Best Original Song. Despite these reasons for optimism, something about “Challengers“ reads as distinctly too “cool“ for the Academy, leaving us fans fearing the worst regarding securing these deserved nominations. A shutout would have many folks yelling, “Come on!“ for all the wrong reasons.
Finally, I’ve warned folks all year about the possibility of an International Film (not named “Emilia Pérez“) coming in to snag surprise spots in Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. I first thought that the film would be “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,“ which is all but assured to make the Best International Film lineup, thankfully, but in recent weeks, it has become clear that “All We Imagine As Light,“ which notably cannot make the Best International Film lineup, is likelier in that path. All of these nominations are still possible despite the longshot odds (just ask “Triangle of Sadness“), but even more possible is landmark international films like these, shamefully receiving one or even zero nominations.
Tier 3 – Outsiders Hoping To Make A Splash
For some in most groups, there’s reason to be optimistic- “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice“ actually leads the odds in our Model for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and “Alien: Romulus“ caught attention with its solid performances on the Oscars shortlists and with guilds in Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. “The Apprentice“ has rebounded from post-election dismissal with continual hits and promising BAFTA prospects, and nominations for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor (and possibly even Best Makeup and Hairstyling) seem realistic, especially if they go hand in hand. Any of these crossing the finish line to an Oscar nomination will be seen as a win. For “Maria,“ though, securing the same one or two nominations would feel like a final blow in a season that has left less reason for hope. Angelina Jolie’s nose-dive in Best Actress has been remarkable, which calls into question other deserving technical nominations in case the dismissal of the film as a whole is outright. It’s competitive in Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Production Design to a lesser extent; it could surprise and get most or all of these along with Jolie, but considering her fall in Best Actress, these others appear less and less likely.
The road to the Oscars is always tough, with uncertainty in every direction for most contenders. No doubt we all will be feeling this as always as we settle in for the announcement of Oscar nominations- this year perhaps more than others. But we’re not alone; the teams behind all of these movies and more- no matter if they’re big contenders hoping to max out, staples trying to crack Best Picture and multiple nominations, or those on the bubble trying to appear at all will be holding their breath right alongside us.
How are you feeling heading into the home-stretch of the Oscar nomination voting window? Which bubble contenders do you believe will make it in and which ones will miss? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Cole and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @CurtissOnFilm
