The Most “Uncertain” Categories Of The 98th Academy Awards

With days to go before the 98th Academy Awards, we’re all taking a moment to reassess predictions we may have set weeks or months ago. The nail-biters we still have heading towards Oscar night always get more chaotic and fiercely debated the closer we get to the ceremony. We’ve already taken a look at what we perceive to be the “locked” categories. Whether the remaining categories are neck-and-neck or have a potential upset that seems likelier by the day, these are the fields that remain most uncertain heading into the big night this Sunday.

Best PictureThis category is probably the closest to a lock on this list, but it would be ignorant to pretend there isn’t a perceived race here. While “One Battle After Another” has swept the season in Best Picture prizes, many are putting stock in the love “Sinners” received at the ACTOR awards, the most recent televised awards before voting. There’s also the record-breaking amount of nominations, the potential win haul, and the love for the film that has made it a very strong #2 all season long. If “One Battle After Another” didn’t exist, it’s pretty clear that “Sinners” would be dominating in its place, but as is, there is a world where “Sinners” still prevails over it. Stats, precursors, and trends won’t help you predict that, but if you want to follow the vibes, there certainly is a lot of love for the film, and it may result in a historical upset on Oscar night.

Best ActorWhat was once thought to be a layup for Timothée Chalamet to win his first Oscar for “Marty Supreme” has since proved anything but. The first setback was when BAFTA gave Best Actor to Robert Aramayo for “I Swear,” one of the most out-of-left-field wins we’ve seen at a major precursor, but one that could easily be written off with Aramayo being a non-factor at Oscar. Then came the ACTOR awards, with an enthusiastic win for Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners.” Some have tried to write this off as just a byproduct of the bodies’ love for the film, or bias since Chalamet won last year, but all these excuses seem to ignore the genuine passion Jordan has. He was runner-up in critics groups to Chalamet, and just objectively speaking, his film is far stronger, a factor that almost always seems to matter in these races. While there is still a world, Chalamet wins, predicting someone to win with neither industry award feels very dangerous. Even the logic that he was the runner-up for the BAFTA may not be able to push him through the massive wave of love “Sinners” has. It is a race, but the momentum and love seem to be in Michael B. Jordan’s favor, and no, the ballet comments have nothing to do with it. Though, there’s a certain secret Brazilian Golden Globe winner lurking in the shadows, who could perhaps benefit from such a chaotic race…

Best Supporting ActressPretty easily the most confusing above-the-line category to predict this season, Best Supporting Actress has been a mess this entire year. What we have come down to is Wumni Mosaku for “Sinners,” who won at BAFTA, and Amy Madigan for “Weapons,” who won at CCA and ACTOR, but missed BAFTA and is the lone nominee for her film. When it’s laid out like that, it seems Mosaku has the clear advantage, which she does, but the case for Madigan is stronger than some are giving it credit for. Many weren’t even predicting Mosaku for the nomination until December, given the size of her role that many felt got lost in the film’s ensemble. Many still feel that way, especially about her winning, but clearly that isn’t enough to keep her from being runner-up in critics groups, so this opinion may not have much weight in the end. Despite winning two televised awards and leading critics groups, something about the BAFTA miss feels really hard to excuse for Amy Madigan. The last time an ACTOR winner missed BAFTA was Lily Gladstone, and that pit clearly was harder than some expected for them to climb out of. There certainly is a world Madigan’s passion pushes her over the edge. Gladstone was going up against a more dominant contender, but this is a split race, and Mosaku certainly is the safer bet here. As for Teyana Taylor, despite her Golden Globe win, losing both industry awards when the film was properly awarded at both feels like a death knell for that performance being in the win conversation.

Best CastingJust on the virtue of being the first year of this category, Best Casting has to be counted as uncertain. The critics groups that would usually serve as precursors to this are even harder to factor in since we don’t know how the Academy reflects their choices. That being said, “Sinners” is the heavy favorite here, and understandably so, with both its exciting and now award-winning ensemble and the debut of Miles Caton; it certainly feels like the biggest achievement this year. That being said, there are cases for the Best Picture frontrunner “One Battle After Another,” especially with its discovery of Chase Infiniti. There’s the whole Jupe factor with “Hamnet,” and the usual wacky yet effective Safdie casting, further evident in “Marty Supreme.” With how unknown this category is, maybe the sprawling and memorable ensemble of “The Secret Agent” is enough for that to snag an inspired win here. None of that feels as likely as “Sinners” does, and while we may be surprised with what this category rewards Oscar night, it’ll likely be an easy win for Francine Maisler, a legend in her field who even got a shoutout during the film’s SAG Ensemble win.

Best Documentary Feature FilmAnother category where the industry seemingly rejected the presumed frontrunner. A film as visible and as campaigned as “The Perfect Neighbor” doesn’t lose both the PGA and the BAFTA by accident. There clearly is something that isn’t connecting with this film to go all the way as the winner; the only problem is what it would presumably lose to. The PGA winner isn’t even nominated for the Oscars, leaving only the BAFTA winner, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” with a big prize leading into the night. That would lead one to predict it for Oscar; in fact, it would be the third film about Russia and its conflict with Ukraine to win here, so clearly the issue is on the Academy’s mind. The strong showing “The Perfect Neighbor” had early on with critics, plus its visibility and buzz could still push it over the edge, but with losses that big, it’s hard to justify it still taking home the award on Oscar night.

Best Live Action, Best Animated, And Best Documentary Short Film
These are the shorts, of course, they have to be in the uncertain list. Especially after last year, when you were lucky to get one of the three right, it feels like these categories get more unpredictable by the year. For Best Documentary Short Film, “All the Empty Rooms” is the strong favorite, both for its very relevant and emotionally gripping topic and for its backing from Netflix; it’s maybe the most confident frontrunner of the three. For Animated, “Butterfly” is the favorite of the five, but “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” and “Retirement Plan” have their fans as well. Best Live Action Short is maybe the most split. “Two People Exchanging Saliva” may have the most buzz around it, but the much more palatable “A Friend of Dorothy” could overtake the esoteric frontrunner. “The Singers,” pushed pretty heavily by Netflix, keeps that in the mix as well, but with voters here watching all five, “A Friend of Dorothy” feels like the favorite. With how these categories work, none of the three eventual winners will have been mentioned here, and we all go zero for three, but this is what we’re working with for these wild cards of categories.

Do you agree that these are the categories one would considered “uncertain” for Oscar night? If not, tell us which categories you disagree with. Check out the categories we feel are locked this year here. Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.