What I love about predicting the Emmy Awards is that there are no industry precursors in which the entire crop of shows eligible for a given cycle competes together. You are ultimately going solely off buzz, viewership, and critical reception for half of the awards contenders every year, and it makes every race so much more fun. If we had known that “The Pitt” would beat “Severance” at SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA before this past ceremony, I doubt that so many would have been led astray by the Apple TV+ juggernaut. Nonetheless, the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice (CCA), and winter guilds still give us quite a bit of information about this year’s Emmy races. I will break down how the winter precursors affect every Series race by genre. Today, we will be starting with Outstanding Drama Series.
Ironically, barring a shocking breakout series like “The Pitt” last season, the Noah Wyle-led hospital drama is likely to take home the top award. Yes, the consensus so far seems to be that it does not enthrall viewers quite as much as the first season, but I have yet to see vocal detractors like those that arose for the second season of “Severance.” There is still unanimous praise for this season, and after winning Outstanding Drama Series last season, “The Pitt” seems unlikely to be dethroned. Following its decisive victory in September, it went on to sweep GG, CCA, WGA, DGA, SAG, and PGA. The industry is on its side, the momentum is on its side, and no other contending show seems to match its passion. In fact, no drama season this cycle even managed to get nominated at every single precursor. To me, the question is not whether “The Pitt” will repeat its Drama Series Emmy, but whether it can add wins for Directing and Writing, and nominations for performers like Patrick Ball, Isa Briones, Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, or Gerran Howell, to its haul.
I did toy with the idea of “Pluribus” being our breakout show that turned this race upside down. While it is an easy runner-up, given its strong critical reception, record-breaking viewership on Apple TV+, and solid cases for Outstanding Drama Actress, Outstanding Drama Supporting Actress, and Outstanding Drama Writing, it underwhelmed at the winter awards relative to expectations. Yes, the show received top nominations at the CC, GG, WGA, and PGA, and pivotal wins for Rhea Seehorn at the two former award bodies. It also faced an uphill battle because it premiered so late in the calendar year. However, the fact that Vince Gilligan missed out on the DGA and Rhea Seehorn was unable to win SAG over Keri Russell proves that there is a ceiling to the show’s support. In fact, two of the biggest talking points around the show are that it is paced too slowly and that its protagonist is unlikable. Whether or not you agree with these statements, and I certainly do not, it does signify to me that the audience reception is not overwhelmingly positive enough to take out a series that has it beat in every possible metric.
Speaking of Keri Russell, I find it interesting that the winter precursors seem to love “The Diplomat” far more than the Emmys do. Save for SAG Ensemble and DGA, season 1 was nominated across the board at winter but only managed a lone Emmy nomination for Outstanding Drama Actress. Then, season 2 was nominated across the board, securing top nods at every single major precursor. It even landed two individual acting nominations at SAG for Russell and Allison Janney, only for the latter to strangely miss Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmys. Season 2 only added one extra Emmy nomination to its previous haul: Outstanding Drama Series. This is “The Diplomat’s” best performance at winter yet. While it missed a WGA nomination, a crucial win for Russell at SAG clearly outweighs that. For the first time, it is heading into an Emmy race with a chance to win in a competitive category. Could that result in it finally expanding its nomination haul in a meaningful way? I am a bit skeptical, since if “The Pitt” and “Pluribus” submit multiple episodes for directing, I do not see it breaking into that category. However, I have a hard time seeing how Bradley Whitford misses Drama Guest Actor, so he should be getting at least three Emmy nominations this time around.
Conversely, “Slow Horses” is a show that generally does better at the Emmys than at winter precursors. However, that is at least partially because it is ineligible at precursors like the WGA and DGA. Its performance pales somewhat in comparison to its previous season, missing out on CC, SAG, and PGA nominations and appearing only at the Globes. However, considering it is the reigning champion in Outstanding Drama Directing, I see no reason to underestimate it. “Slow Horses” previously took advantage of a “Shōgun” vote split in Outstanding Drama Writing and “The Pitt” and “Severance” vote splits in Outstanding Drama Directing, so provided that it is in a field where the frontrunner has submitted multiple episodes, it can easily take home an Emmy in either of the two categories once again. The reception for season 5 is a bit weaker than season 4, but in a much less competitive field, I do not see why that matters.
“Paradise” season 1 did not perform well at winter precursors, but it got in where it counted: crucial nominations for Sterling K. Brown at SAG, CC, and GG, and a Drama Series nomination at CC. While I would have been more confident in season 2’s chances had season 1 gotten into SAG Ensemble, its viewership and previous Emmy performance speak for themselves. On its worst day, Sterling K. Brown is still locked for Outstanding Drama Actor.
“Stranger Things” season 5 has performed quite poorly in the winter. Its audience reception is perhaps the worst of the show’s run, and it failed to land a nomination at a single major precursor, outside of Stunts Ensemble at SAG, but that is hardly a noteworthy achievement. By all quantifiable metrics, it should be out of Outstanding Drama Series. However, the discourse around it during its run was inescapable, and it is easily the most popular show of the cycle across any genre. It also got in for season 4, which had a similar awards run, even though it was received far more fondly than this final entry. Given its techs and immense viewership, I will tentatively keep it in Outstanding Drama Series, but this is the first show I will drop if a new contender emerges.
“Landman” is a shoo-in for our annual show that does well at SAG but is ultimately a non-entity in awards season. Previous examples include “Bridgerton” season 3 and other Paramount+ shows like “1883” and “Yellowstone.” Do not be led astray by its two SAG nominations. It is not an Emmy contender.
Finally, let’s discuss the HBO contenders not named “The Pitt.” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “Task,” “Euphoria,” “The Gilded Age,” and “Industry” are all bafflingly competing in the same cycle, meaning HBO technically has six possible Emmy contenders to campaign. Now imagine if “Heated Rivalry” were actually eligible for Drama Series.
“The Gilded Age” season 3’s performance is legitimately baffling to me. It is the show’s best season by far, yet it missed out on SAG Ensemble this year in favor of shows like “Landman” and failed to land any series nominations outside of CC. Carrie Coon did make an appearance at GG and CC, and I would argue that her SAG snub for “The White Lotus,” while costars Parker Posey and Aimee Lou Wood got in, indicates that her performance for “The Gilded Age” had enough passion to siphon away votes. Because of that, I feel comfortable predicting her nomination. Christine Baranski should also make it back into Outstanding Drama Supporting Actress, though she is on much shakier ground. Unfortunately, I do not have a strong argument for this show to return to Outstanding Drama Series.
“Task” should be getting nominated. If a critically acclaimed, widely seen HBO show from “Mare of Easttown” creator Brad Inglesby, starring Mark Ruffalo, cannot get into Outstanding Drama Series, what can? However, its winter awards haul has been somewhat lacking. It secured nominations for Outstanding Drama Actor and Outstanding Drama Series at CCA. It managed another Ruffalo nomination at the GGs, but otherwise its only major mentions are a New Series WGA nomination and an ASC win. This is not a bad haul by any means, but considering how high-profile the show, creator, and cast all are, it feels underwhelming. I think it can get into Drama Series, but it depends heavily on how the 2026 shows are received, especially those from HBO.
If we are talking solely on merit, “Industry” should also be getting nominated. Season 4 was the show’s darkest entry yet, resulting in its best viewership numbers to date. Unfortunately, those numbers are still nowhere near high enough to break into the mainstream, and the show’s particular flavor of cynicism is likely too off-putting for many Emmy voters. Out of HBO’s extensive Drama Series slate, I would argue this show is destined to be their lowest priority, barring a poorly received “Euphoria” premiere. Myha’la and Marisa Abela could benefit from the somewhat open Drama Actress category, however.
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” is the HBO show I have the most confidence in outside of “The Pitt.” I honestly do not see why this would miss. It has solid reviews, strong audience reception, major viewership, and residual love from “Game of Thrones.” Yes, “House of the Dragon” season 2 missed Outstanding Drama Series, but that season was quite divisive among fans and sparked a wave of negativity. Meanwhile, there is a growing consensus that “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” has delivered some of the best storytelling in Westeros since “Game of Thrones” season 6. There is an undeniable passion surrounding this show that I believe will be more than enough to convince skeptical Emmy voters to give Westeros another chance. It should easily secure several tech nominations, and I think nominations for Peter Claffey, Writing, and Directing are all in play.
Finally, I have no idea what to make of “Euphoria.” On one hand, it breaks the internet every time it airs, with arguably the most culturally relevant show on this list, not named “Stranger Things.” Zendaya has already won two Emmys for this show, and season 2 received a Drama Series nomination at the Emmys, a PGA nomination, and a DGA win over shows like “Severance” and “Better Call Saul.” On the other hand, Sam Levinson has become an incredibly polarizing figure following the release and controversy surrounding “The Idol.” Will the industry be as open to recognizing his work in light of the reports about his production environment? And with “The Idol” being one of the worst-reviewed series in recent memory, will “Euphoria” season 3 even be good? There are already warning signs, with the time jump placing the characters out of high school, rumored storylines sparking concern, and Zendaya not actively promoting the season alongside her other projects. Ultimately, it will come down to how audiences respond to this season. If it continues to dominate conversation and generate weekly buzz, I think it will hold onto an Outstanding Drama Series slot. If audiences turn on it, there is no saving it at the Emmys.
After the winter precursors, I feel confident that “The Pitt,” “Pluribus,” “The Diplomat,” and “Slow Horses” will receive Outstanding Drama Series nominations. “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” is the 2026 show I am most confident in after “The Pitt” because of its strong audience reception. While “Paradise” could have performed better in the winter, its haul should be enough to retain a Series nomination. “Task,” “Euphoria,” and “Stranger Things” are all fighting for the final two slots in Outstanding Drama Series, and it largely depends on whether “Euphoria” season 3 is received as a solid season of television. Your predictions for those final two slots are as good as mine, though I lean toward “Task” and “Stranger Things.”
What shows do you think will be in the mix for this year’s Emmy Awards season in the Outstanding Drama Series category? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on Next Best Picture’s X account.
