In the wake of the dominance of “The Studio,” the race for Outstanding Comedy Series at the 2026 Emmys is a giant question mark. The Seth Rogen comedy won every single winter precursor, completing a clean sweep of the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, PGA, WGA, DGA, and the Actor Awards. But with it missing eligibility this year and no eligible season of TV winning anything at the guilds, there is a lot of guesswork ahead about how the awards race will unfold.
The obvious frontrunner in Outstanding Comedy Series is a show that failed to win anything at the major precursors, aside from Comedy Actress prizes at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards: “Hacks.” In fact, this was the first year Jean Smart lost the Actor Award for her turn as Deborah Vance. However, it is doubtful anyone could have resisted the chance to give Catherine O’Hara, one of our greatest comedic actresses, an award for a stunning performance in “The Studio,” which proved tragically to be her swan song. The show has consistently been a top contender every season, even winning Outstanding Comedy Series for its third season, and season 5 will be the show’s final outing. The assumption was that voters would default to “Hacks” in a field without “The Studio,” but it was also assumed that season 4 of “Hacks” was the easy frontrunner, only to be usurped by a show with even more passion. At the moment, no such contender is making an obvious case as a spoiler, but there are still over two months before eligibility ends. It is believed that “Hacks” will snag the win for this final season, but there is hesitation to say the race is over.
If a show does upset “Hacks,” the bet is on “The Comeback” being that show. Yes, the show has never been included in an Outstanding Comedy Series lineup before. And yes, its previous season only received one nomination: Best Comedy Actress for Lisa Kudrow. Yet the show has always been ahead of its time, and in recent years, voters have begun responding more to shows with its style of humor. While its newest season may not be quite as acclaimed as “Hacks‘” final season, it still has markedly better critical reception than its previous entries. Finally, “The Comeback” feels right on time with its commentary on the entertainment industry, aptly tackling the room-filling elephant that is artificial intelligence. The last two series winners, “Hacks” and “The Studio,” have done just this, so should voters be looking for an alternative to the former show, “The Comeback” is there. Perhaps the biggest knock against its chances of winning, and the reason why there is still faith in “Hacks” to pull off the win, is that the categories it is strongest in are the same categories “Hacks” is strongest in. As phenomenal as Kudrow is in this season, it is difficult to see Smart losing Best Comedy Actress for the first time after winning four consecutive Emmys for this role. Additionally, while the writing of “The Comeback” is strong, “Hacks” is an obvious writers’ darling with its multiple Emmy and WGA wins.
Meanwhile, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” is a show that must be considered a potential threat in Outstanding Comedy Series because of how many above-the-line categories it could upset. Nick Offerman is a beloved Emmy-winning television actor who delivers a soft, surprisingly heartbreaking performance as Jinx, Margo’s ex-pro wrestler father. Michelle Pfeiffer is a highly regarded actress who has been in the industry for decades, and she arguably steals the show as Margo’s mother, Shyanne, a woman terrified that she cannot stop her daughter from following in her footsteps. Offerman’s biggest competition is Harrison Ford for “Shrinking.” Still, after he missed altogether for season one and lost to Jeff Hiller for season two, there is reason to wonder if Emmy voters are not resonating with Ford’s work as much as audiences are. Pfeiffer is going against reigning champion Hannah Einbinder for “Hacks.” Still, while the latter has more than enough material to clinch a second win, the fact that it took her this long to win suggests she could lose again if she delivers a more traditionally “awards-friendly” performance. The show as a whole is delightful and has solid critical reception, but if it takes off with audiences and secures wins for Offerman and Pfeiffer, could it go all the way and land an Outstanding Comedy Series win? It would likely need a Best Directing win as well, but it makes a strong case for itself with its stylish presentation.
Rounding out the shows that could theoretically win Outstanding Comedy Series is “Shrinking.” It might be odd for a show to jump from no nominations in Writing or Directing to series winner, but there seems to be a consensus that this is the show’s best season yet. “Shrinking” benefits greatly from having a thin field, as it can be argued that Jason Segel, Jessica Williams, and Harrison Ford are all contenders to win Emmys in their respective categories. Another point in its favor is its potential to win the Actor Awards Comedy Ensemble. If “The Studio” season 2 does not come out this year, it could beat all the shows listed above because of the passion actors have for the show. “Shrinking” needs to secure Writing and Directing nominations to be a threat in Outstanding Comedy Series. Still, the glowing positivity this season, especially, has received is a signal of at the very least a boost in its status as an Emmy contender.
“Abbott Elementary,” “Only Murders in the Building,” and “The Bear” are three shows that can be grouped as perennial series nominees whose winning days are clearly behind them. These shows appeared at most of the major guilds and the Globes, but failed to win anything because, again, “The Studio” swept. “Only Murders in the Building” has top mentions at PGA, Actor Awards Ensemble, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes, and considering it has missed Directing and Writing since season 3 at the Emmys, the DGA and WGA misses are not too concerning. What is concerning is Quinta Brunson’s nomination after she missed the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Actor Award. “Abbott Elementary” also missed DGA, but it never gets nominated there, and PGA, a shocker, but while an unfortunate snub for Brunson may be in the cards, the strength of its writing support should keep it in Outstanding Comedy Series. Yet of the three, there is the least confidence in “The Bear” because of how polarizing the last two seasons have been. Both Ayo Edebiri and Jeremy Allen White missed at the Actor Awards, while the show was dropped from the WGA. However, it is expected to hold on regardless because if the industry had alternatives to this show, it would have nominated them instead of “The Bear” at the PGA, DGA, Actor Awards, Ensemble, and the Globes.
The final show in Outstanding Comedy Series is “The Chair Company.” While the show had an admittedly weak run at winter, with the complete goose egg at the Critics Choice Awards being especially baffling since it is a critically acclaimed show, it secured an Outstanding Comedy Series WGA nomination over shows like “The Bear,” “Only Murders in the Building,” and “Nobody Wants This,” and a New Series WGA nomination over shows like “The Lowdown” and “Paradise.” Since the show had not demonstrated clear strength elsewhere, these were its only major nominations anywhere at winter, and landing only one of the two nods could have been a sign of a weak field rather than bona fide passion. “The Curse” comes to mind as an example of a WGA red herring. But the fact that writers remembered and loved it enough to nominate it in both categories signifies that this will be one of their biggest pushes this year. In a field where “Hacks” and “Abbott Elementary” are the only shows that received WGA nominations for their most recently eligible season, that can push it over the line in an incredibly splintered field. Plus, the show hails from Emmy winner Tim Robinson, boasts solid viewership, has an HBO campaign behind it, and stands out in this year of television due to its unique premise.
Perhaps the hottest take here is that “Nobody Wants This” is being wildly overestimated for Outstanding Comedy Series. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations were decent gets for it, but once again, the show was completely shut out at the major guilds’ top prizes. Even more concerningly, Kristen Bell missed an Actor Awards nomination despite getting in last year and hosting the awards ceremony. This is coupled with a viewership drop for season 2, middling critical scores, and a surprisingly sour audience reception. Considering that the show’s major appeal in season one was its endearing quality, and that it only managed three Emmy nominations to begin with, there is not much of an argument for it to hold on in Outstanding Comedy Series.
The main problem with “Rooster” getting into Outstanding Comedy Series is the same problem that existed with “Shrinking’s” first season: if a proven Bill Lawrence comedy is a guaranteed nomination, why would voters go out of their way to nominate another Bill Lawrence comedy? The show has decent reviews, but “Shrinking” has largely stolen its charming, sentimental, feel-good thunder. Steve Carell is infamously Emmy-less for “The Office” and seems like a safe bet for a nomination at the very least. Still, there is some skepticism about the show overall unless more audience buzz emerges.
“The Lowdown” is difficult to place. When it competed in Drama at the winter ceremony, the critically acclaimed series could not even secure a nomination at the Critics’ Choice Awards or the WGA Awards, despite the success of creator Sterlin Harjo’s previous show, “Reservation Dogs,” and the star power of Ethan Hawke. The show simply feels a bit too small to break into the Outstanding Comedy Series category, though nominations for Best Actor, Best Writing, and Best Directing are all in play.
“Palm Royale” is a tempting choice because of how well it performed at below-the-line guilds this year, on top of Kristen Wiig landing nominations for season 2, which she was unable to secure for season 1. But after its cancellation, there is skepticism that Apple will be willing to give this show the campaign it needs to make it in as a lower-tier contender, even if it landed a series nomination for its first season. Kristen Wiig, however, should not be underestimated. With an Actor Award and Golden Globe nomination, she looks quite likely.
“Wednesday” could make it in based on sheer visibility, but the show’s viewership and awards performance were clearly weaker than season one. While the show managed a Globe nomination for Outstanding Comedy Series and a DGA nod for season 1, its only appearances at major precursors this year have been for Comedy Actress. Part of the reason season one got in was that it was everywhere. Season two might be a bit better, but it did not achieve the same level of virality as its first season. Jenna Ortega should remain on the radar, especially since she still received crucial nominations at the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards, and has an extremely baity episode in which she plays a character with a polar-opposite personality who attempts to act like Wednesday.
“Jury Duty: Company Retreat” is in a similar situation to “Wednesday,” albeit with a better critical reception. The first season of “Jury Duty” was a lightning-in-a-bottle phenomenon, with dozens of its clips going viral. Practically everyone had seen it, and it was a major part of pop culture as it was airing. The same cannot be said about “Jury Duty: Company Retreat,” which has great audience scores but does not make lightning strike twice. But should a show like “The Bear” slip further down the list, or “The Chair Company” prove too small to get in, a nomination for this season is still possible.
What shows do you think will be in the mix for this year’s Emmy Awards season in the Outstanding Comedy Series category? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on Next Best Picture’s X account.
