Very soon after the 2025 Emmy winners have been announced, I’m diving right back in to discuss the 2026 Emmys. After all, awards season for TV is never-ending! Today, I’d like to break down the comedy contenders each studio has next year, along with their chances of winning awards at the winter precursors if they are eligible.
ABC:
I do think there will come a point where “Abbott Elementary” starts dropping off as an Emmy contender. Tyler James Williams’ absence for the first time feels like a sign that the show may start slipping soon. But unlike another show on this list, “Abbott Elementary’s” fourth season was fantastic, and I have faith in Quinta Brunson to continue delivering excellent television. The show has also consistently garnered nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, WGA Awards, and PGA Awards. As long as it continues to deliver, and as long as it remains a show that these awards nominate, it should have no trouble holding onto its Outstanding Comedy Series nomination.
AppleTV+:
“Shrinking” just competed in this year’s Emmys, and though it was expected to land a win for Harrison Ford, it nonetheless had a solid package. Its SAG nominations for Ensemble and Ford were its only above-the-line guild recognition, and true to form, its only above-the-line Emmy nominations outside of Series were for acting. I do wonder if this show could expand and snag a writing nomination, but it certainly depends on the strength of the field. The show has momentum going for it, and I get the sense that it will continue to improve.
Moving on to another Bill Lawrence-created show, I am not entirely sure what to do with “Ted Lasso.” It was universally adored for its first season, mostly well-liked for its second season (though some began to turn on it due to its awards success), and quite divisive for its messy third season. “Ted Lasso” season 3 retained all of its above-the-line nominations and was nominated at every winter precursor except the Critics’ Choice. Still, I cannot help but wonder if the criticism its third season received will hamper its chances of getting major nominations for its fourth season. I doubt critics will return to this show unless “Ted Lasso” comes back with a vengeance. However, the industry has always taken to this show more than the press has, so I have few qualms with it getting back into series, provided that the reviews are decent. I suspect it misses writing this time, though.
Finally, I suspect that “Palm Royale” is Kristen Wiig or bust (with the asterisk that it is a gorgeous show set in the 1970s and will surely garner more craft nominations). The first season was fun, but its lackluster awards run at the winter makes me believe that it benefited greatly from releasing close to Emmys voting. Yes, it landed a Series nomination at the Emmys for its debut, but its only major nomination anywhere at the year-end awards was a nod for Wiig at Critics’ Choice! Perhaps its release closer to the winter awards voting helps it land a couple of major nominations there and propels it towards Emmys success, but I see this largely as a Wiig and crafts play currently.
FX:
For such a powerhouse studio, awards-wise, FX’s slate in comedy feels surprisingly fragile for once. “The Bear” is undoubtedly their priority, but the show is far from its glory days. In one season, it went from winning a record-breaking 11 Emmys to completely blanking. Critics and audiences have not outright turned against the show, but what used to be FX’s watercooler show has largely been forgotten about by now. And unlike “The Bear” season 3, season 4 does not exactly have a “Napkins”-level episode to keep it in the conversation. The Critics’ Choice has already dropped the show, but I am curious to see if season 4’s lukewarm reception will lead to misses at the Golden Globes, WGA (which feels likely, given the Emmy miss), DGA, PGA, or in the SAG Ensemble category. I am keeping it in Series for now, but if it gets outright snubbed at multiple major awards ceremonies, I will consider taking it out.
FX’s other main contender in this category is “English Teacher.” For those who are unaware, “English Teacher” creator and star Brian Jordan Alvarez was accused of sexual assault by Jon Ebeling before the show’s renewal. I do not want to use a man’s trauma for the sake of awards prognostication, but I think it is important that this news continues to be shared. Ultimately, I do not think this show will be able to garner Emmys love despite the weak field due to it failing to even land a Writing nomination for season 1. Season 1 was also a critics’ push, but I do not see its hype getting replicated, all things considered. It could maybe manage a WGA nomination like season 1, but I earnestly do not see it happening anywhere else.
The final comedy on FX’s slate is likely only a commercial play, as it is a sitcom that is relatively cheap to produce but has a dedicated audience and instant name recognition. But “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” has released its best season in years, and considering Rob McElhenney and Kaitlin Olson’s Emmy success after the show, as well as the recent crossover with Emmy darling “Abbott Elementary,” I maintain that there is a slight possibility this show could be nominated for Best Comedy Series with the right campaign. Its word-of-mouth is likely to be more favorable than that of “The Bear” and “English Teacher.”
HBO:
Rachel Sennott’s star has grown significantly post-2020, and “I Love LA” may be her first bona fide awards contender. It follows a codependent friend group that deals with love, life, and their lofty ambitions in Los Angeles. I’m not quite sure why this is the HBO comedy I’m most confident in, but the pre-release hype for it feels substantial. It was discussed as a highly anticipated title even when the show was simply titled “Untitled Rachel Sennott Show.” If it lives up to expectations and plays well with both industry and audiences, I don’t see why this couldn’t get in.
Another creative who has become more prominent in recent memory is Tim Robinson. “The Chair Company” is his latest project, which revolves around a corporate worker who becomes convinced of a conspiracy that involves his company. Robinson certainly has his fans, and even has three Emmys to show for it, but I ultimately think this show will be too niche to break out in a significant way.
Rounding out the new shows is Bill Lawrence’s untitled series starring Steve Carell. It follows an author’s complicated relationship with his daughter and is set on a college campus. Lawrence’s two most recent shows, “Ted Lasso” and “Shrinking,” have both been broadly appealing and enjoyed quite a bit of Emmys success. Will this follow suit? It all depends on how the rest of HBO’s packed slate pans out.
HBO’s final contender is none other than “The Comeback.” Nearly a decade after its second season, the cult classic has returned! The show stars Lisa Kudrow as a B-lister desperate to reclaim her former glory. I am a bit skeptical of its award chances, as the show has never been nominated for Best Comedy Series at the Emmys, but I am not going to underestimate the extent to which the entertainment industry fawns over a show about the entertainment industry, given our reigning champion in this category. I think it’ll be more of a “The Other Two”-esque contender, but I’d love to be proven wrong!
HBO Max:
“Hacks” is returning next year for its fifth and final season. Although it may have lost the top prize to “The Studio” this year, it was undoubtedly #2, with its wins for Actress, Supporting Actress, and Guest Actress. In a field that currently seems to lack serious competition—though it remains to be seen if any of HBO’s slate becomes breakout hits—I have no qualms with saying “Hacks” is the frontrunner. It boasts Emmys in every above-the-line category except Lead Actor (which they have never submitted a contender to) and Supporting Actor, for crying out loud! Here’s to hoping this consistently brilliant show ends on a high note.
Hulu:
The awards performance of “Only Murders in the Building” is downright puzzling. For season 3, it received its largest Emmy nominations haul to date—a whopping twenty-one, only to miss crucial nominations for writing and directing. For Season 4, the show managed to upset “Hacks” and Jeremy Allen White at the SAG Awards, winning prizes for Ensemble and for Martin Short. It marked the first time the show had ever won a major category, and seemed to point to a resurgence for the show. Instead, the show received the lowest number of nominations yet: a baffling seven. Season 5 has slightly worse reviews than the rest of the seasons, but I do not think the show will have any trouble getting in at the Golden Globes, SAG, and PGA. Similarly, it is fairly safe to predict a win for Best Comedy Series at the Emmys. But whether it receives single-digit or 20+ nominations, I have no clue.
A freshman show that I am keeping my eye on is “Chad Powers.” The show releases next Tuesday and stars Glen Powell as the titular Chad Powers, an athlete who dons prosthetics to play football again under a new identity after ruining his reputation years ago. It is based on Eli Manning’s sketch of the same name and is created by Powell and Michael Waldron. Waldron’s previous writing credits include “Loki” and “Rick & Morty,” while Powell wrote and produced “Hit Man” in the past. I see the potential for this to be an audience hit, similar to something like “Ted Lasso,” but my main concern is the seeming lack of pre-release hype. The review embargo has not been lifted yet, and Hulu’s promotion for this show feels a bit muted. Despite being only a few days away from its release, we’re still in the dark about the quality of this show.
Netflix:
“Nobody Wants This” was one of the best surprises of last year. It was an extremely sweet rom-com show that made for an easy binge and was anchored by great performances from Kristen Bell and Adam Brody. Its winter awards run was a bit underwhelming, as it failed to land SAG Ensemble, PGA, or DGA and only managed a WGA nomination for Best New Series. However, it still made it into Series at the end of the day—though I suspect “The Rehearsal” and “Somebody Somewhere” were close behind. My primary concern with this show is that I’m unsure if it needed a second season, and I worry that the second season may not be as captivating as the first. My other concern is that even if its second season is just as great as its first, the first season only received three nominations. If multiple of HBO’s shows hit, or if a breakout show I’m not even considering sneaks into the race, I’m not sure that the acting support for Bell and Brody will be enough for another series nomination. But the show is delightful, and I am rooting for it to improve its awards haul this season.
Netflix’s other contender is none other than the ratings hit “Wednesday.” Its second season is not quite making the waves the first one did, but it is still bound to be one of the most-watched shows of this cycle. Its second half feels more buzzy than the first, and the body-swapping episode in particular has garnered a lot of praise. Jenna Ortega should have no problem getting back into the Outstanding Lead Actress category, but I do think this show can miss out on a Drama Series nomination if it fails to repeat its Series nomination at the Globes, break into the SAG Ensemble lineup, or land a PGA nomination. Currently, I tentatively have it in because of its clear support from craftspeople and the strength of Jenna Ortega, but it could absolutely go the way of “Squid Game” and miss out on Drama Series due to not having the same resonance as its first season did.
Peacock:
“The Paper” has certainly broken viewership records for Peacock, but I am somewhat skeptical of this spinoff of “The Office’s” chances, considering its muted critical reception. I would have liked to see it explode on social media or garner a passionate fan base for it to truly contend for this category, but at the moment, it feels like a bit of an afterthought. That being said, I am not ruling out its chances of a nomination at the Golden Globes or the Critics’ Choice Awards. As a show about the struggle to create great journalism in this modern era, I can easily see it appealing to the members of the press who make up both awards bodies. I would need it to be nominated at a major guild to slot it into my series predictions, however.
At the moment, these are my exceedingly early predictions for Best Comedy Series. Am I forgetting any major contenders? Please let me know!
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“I Love LA”
“Shrinking”
“Ted Lasso”
“Wednesday”
What shows do you think will be in the mix for next year’s Emmy Awards season? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on Next Best Picture’s X account.
