Predicting The 89th Academy Awards: Best Film Editing & Best Cinematography

By Matt Neglia Two of the most interesting Oscars for cinephiles around the world are the Best Film Editing and Best Cinematography Oscars. Film Editing dictates the flow of a film and how its story is told. Cinematography are the images that stay with you for a lifetime. If either aspect is poor within a film, it ultimately fails. The Academy has done a great job of recognizing some of the standout works from this year and now it is time to see if the guilds, critics and various factors from this season will be able to help us predict the winners in both categories.

​Click below for my in-depth analysis.

BEST FILM EDITING

If you would have asked me early on in the season which film was going to walk away with Best Film Editing I would have told you “La La Land.” Truth be told, I still say “La La Land.” But the ACE and the BAFTA awards went to two different films and as a result we must go back in the history of the Critics Choice, the ACE and the BAFTA awards to find if there is any trends that will dictate a surprise winner in this category.

The five nominees this year for Best Film Editing are:

“Arrival“
“Hacksaw Ridge“
“Hell Or High Water“
“La La Land“
“Moonlight“

Ever since the Critics Choice Awards have been around, they have helped us on two occasions to predict the Oscar winner when different winners emerged at the ACE & the BAFTA which has ultimately happened this year. In 2013 when the ACE went with “Captain Phillips” & “American Hustle,” the BAFTA went with “Rush” but the Oscar went to “Gravity” which had won the Critics Choice Award. The same thing happened in 2011 when “The Descendants” & “The Artist” won the ACE, BAFTA went to “Senna” and the Oscars aligned with the Critics Choice and went with “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.” This year the Critics Choice went with “La La Land” and so did the ACE. ACE also chose “Arrival” which had it won BAFTA would be more of a threat. However, the BAFTA surprisingly went to “Hacksaw Ridge.”

So if the Oscar is between these three films, let’s see how they have done this season so far:

“La La Land” – ACE, AFCS, BFCA, CFCS, COFCA, HFCS, OFCS, WAFCA
“Hacksaw Ridge” – AACTA, BAFTA, PFCS
“Arrival” – ACE, SFFCC

It would appear that “La La Land” is certainly the frontrunner here from a consensus standpoint, winning the majority of critics groups in its lead up to the Oscars and winning the Critics Choice and ACE. It’s almost baffling that it did not win the BAFTA. However, as long as the ACE has existed, the BAFTA’s have matched with the Oscars 16 times in 48 years, while the ACE have matched 22 times before expanding their award to include both Drama and Comedy/Musical winners and another 12 times after that. It also deserves to be mentioned that the Critics Choice have not had the best record in this category, only matching 3 times in 7 years but two of those times turned out to be the deciding factor in a BAFTA/ACE split (As stated above), where “Mad Max: Fury Road” swept the season. We have not had a situation yet where a film that won the Critics Choice and the ACE went on to win the Oscar after losing BAFTA, so if “La La Land” wins here it will be the first film to do so.

I ultimately think the combination of the ACE win, Critics Choice win and of course being the Best Picture frontrunner (Which usually helps considering 21 of the Best Picture winners in the last 48 years also won Best Film Editing), will give “La La Land” the edge here. BAFTA has historically the worse track record between itself and the ACE, so if there is to be an upset (Mind you, “La La Land” would be only the second ACE Winner in the Comedy/Musical category to win the Best Film Editing Oscar after “Chicago” and only the third musical film in 48 years to win this award), then I expect it will be “Arrival.” The San Francisco Film Critics Circle, which has been its only other win all season, has chosen “Argo,” “Gravity,” “Boyhood” & “Mad Max: Fury Road” as their winners for Best Film Editing. It’s a small group of winners, but three of the four went on to win the Oscar. It could be tighter than we think considering how much “Arrival” was praised for its story structure. Food for thought.

PREDICTED WINNER: “La La Land“
RUNNER UP: “Arrival”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Best Cinematography has been all over the place this season with “La La Land” trading wins with “Moonlight.” The Best Picture frontrunner finally took the lead later in the season and looks poised to win this category. But are we once again heading for yet another upset in the craft categories for this film?

The five nominees in this category are:

“Arrival“
“La La Land“
“Lion“
“Moonlight“
“Silence“

In taking a look at each film’s awards throughout the season, this is how it breaks down so far.

“La La Land” – AFCA, AFCS, BAFTA, BFCA, CFCS, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, HFCS, HFCS, LVFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, OFCS, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA
“Moonlight” – AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, LAFCA, SFFCC
“Arrival” – SFCS
“Lion” – ASC

With this in mind, I think we can take “Silence” out. As respected as its photography by Rodrigo prieto is, the momentum for that film is completely gone and it remains the film’s sole nomination. “Arrival” has only won one award all season from the Seattle Film Critics. They have handed out the cinematography award 7 times and of those times the only crossover was twice for Emmanuel Lubezki for “Gravity” and “Birdman” which were sweeper wins all season long, so “Arrival” is out.

That leaves it down to “La La Land,” “Lion” and “Moonlight.” The New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics all went with “Moonlight” for cinematography. These are the films since 1980 (When The New York Film Critics Circle started handing out the cinematography award) that have won all three from each group.

“The Killing Fields” – Won Oscar
“The Wings Of Desire” – Not Nominated
“Barton Fink” – Not Nominated
“Schindler’s List” – Won Oscar
“Ed Wood” – Not Nominated
“Far From Heaven” – Lost Oscar
“The Tree Of Life” – Lost Oscar

The history is sketchy here at best with only “Schindler’s List” and “The Killing Fields” ever sweeping the critics awards and winning the Oscar. Most of the other films were not nominated and the last two films to accomplish this, lost. So I’m ruling “Moonlight” out (More on that in a moment though). Now it all comes down to “Lion,” which won the ASC and “La La Land,” which has won the Critics Choice Award and the BAFTA. Let’s turn to the Critics Choice, the ASC and the BAFTA awards for answers.

Since the Critics Choice have been giving out this award, they have matched Oscar 6 times in the last 7 years. That is as good as a stat as it should get. But they still have not been around as long. Looking at the BAFTA and ASC wins before 2009, when they go to two different films, 3 times the Oscar went to the ASC winner, 4 times to the BAFTA winner and a whopping 13 times to something else entirely. Could “Moonlight” be that other film? Maybe there is another shocker that we don’t see coming at all, similar to what “Hugo” did in 2011 where it did not win a single award all season for its cinematography but managed to pull out a win. BAFTA overall has matched this category with Oscar 14 times in the last 30 years, while the ASC has matched 13 times. I think it’s pretty clear that “La La Land” will win this award, but if there is to be an upset I expect it will not be the ASC winner, but instead the film which picked up the NYFCC, NSFC, LAFCA award for cinematography and has equal odds of winning this category as the ASC winner does and that is “Moonlight.”

PREDICTED WINNER: “La La Land“
​RUNNER UP: “Moonlight“

What are your predictions for these two Oscar categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments down below. You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture