Listen, maybe I’m just bored at this point in awards season. But my pride as a Puerto Rican, especially in this post–Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show world, has me entertaining the idea that this cultural energy could somehow carry over to the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) on March 1st.
I can’t be the only one who watched “One Battle After Another” and was instantly charmed by Benicio del Toro’s Sensei Sergio. It’s one of the great scene-stealing performances of last year. Del Toro is the glue that holds Paul Thomas Anderson’s highly regarded film together, grounding and clarifying many of the ideas Anderson is exploring during a second Trump presidency. As each day passes since the film’s release, it only feels more relevant. So the question becomes: could that growing appreciation, amplified by the current cultural moment, translate into momentum in an uneven Best Supporting Actor race and give Del Toro (who has already won major prizes from the New York Film Critics Circle, National Society of Film Critics, National Board Of Review and leads overall precursor wins or Best Supporting Actor, the edge at the Actor Awards over his greatest competition in Critics Choice Award winner Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein“) and Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value“).
Earlier in the season, when Del Toro was sweeping critics’ prizes before the televised awards began, it felt almost certain he would land in the Academy’s Best Supporting Actor lineup and possibly even contend for a second Oscar win. But that narrative has cooled. Losses to Jacob Elordi at CCA and Stellan Skarsgård at the Golden Globes deflated what once felt like a surging campaign, sidelining what could have been the crowning achievement of one of Del Toro’s strongest years in recent memory between “One Battle After Another” and a strong leading performance in another Anderson’s film, “The Phoenician Scheme.”
Still, the Actor Awards could be the body that shifts the trajectory in his favor, especially compared to BAFTA. Skarsgård’s absence at the Actor Awards reshapes the race. On paper, that seems to benefit Elordi more than Del Toro. Elordi’s CCA win and overall general popularity, bolstered by his charm, good looks, “Euphoria” love, and recent success with “Wuthering Heights,” positions him well with SAG-AFTRA’s massive voting body, and “Frankenstein” has broad support thanks to its Best Ensemble and Best Stunt Ensemble nominations. Meanwhile, SAG-AFTRA’s noticeable aversion to international films last year left even a critically lauded title like “Sentimental Value” completely shut out.
But “One Battle After Another” occupies a sweet spot in this year’s awards season. It plays strongly with critics and connects with general audiences, the kind of crossover appeal that thrives at the Actor Awards, where the voting body is massive, even compared to the Academy’s over 16,000. That’s where Del Toro becomes a legitimate threat to Elordi’s chances of winning again. His performance resonates across generational lines: veteran actors admire his craft and longevity. At the same time, younger voters are very likely to be drawn to his character and what he represents in an era when ICE needs to be combated. People like Sensei Sergio are leading the charge for the everyday person in a community that feels under attack, and it’s hard to imagine this not resonating with SAG-AFTRA voters.
It helps that he’s attached to what many consider this awards season’s juggernaut. The Best Ensemble race appears to be a two-horse contest between Oscar frontrunners “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” The former has steamrolled much of the season, maintaining frontrunner status with consistency and strength, winning the Critics’ Choice Award, the Golden Globe for Best Picture, and, most recently, the DGA Award for Paul Thomas Anderson in the Best Director category. Even if “Sinners” manages to take the Actor award for Outstanding Ensemble, it’s hard to imagine “One Battle After Another” walking away empty-handed on the night. Teyana Taylor remains firmly in contention for an Outstanding Supporting Actress win, and if the film overperforms with SAG-AFTRA voters, Outstanding Supporting Actor feels like the category where a coattail win could materialize.
Of course, even a win with the Actor Awards wouldn’t automatically restore Del Toro to Oscar frontrunner status. Realistically, someone in his position would need both the Actor and BAFTA awards to secure a second Academy Award win. As long as he has only one, it’ll still be a tight race with Elordi riding a wave of popularity and the industry’s ongoing affection for Guillermo del Toro’s work, not to mention an overdue narrative for Skarsgård, who, if he wins BAFTA this weekend, may secure the entire Best Supporting Actor Oscar race.
Still, something is compelling about the underdog narrative for Del Toro and for Latinos everywhere searching for any kind of a win in such uncertain and scary times. Imagine the message it would send right now if one of Puerto Rico’s finest stepped onto the worldwide stage on Oscar night to speak his mind. In a season that sometimes feels robotic and predetermined, that imagined but highly vivid and incredible moment alone might be worthy of a vote.
Do you think Benicio del Toro can win Best Supporting Actor at the Actor Awards? Is it Jacob Elordi’s award to lose? Is there still a world where Del Toro can win the Oscar? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account. Click here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
