The outcomes of the NBR, AFI, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes gauntlet left seven movies presumed for Best Picture, with only three spots left to fight for. After the Critics Choices and Golden Globes in particular, it seems the field for those three slots has been reduced to six films – barring “Avatar: Fire and Ash” barging back in with billions of dollars after all, Searchlight somehow working its old magic with three thus far invisible movies, “F1: The Movie” using its likely technical nominations to get something more, or Sony Pictures Classics riding the coattails of Ethan Hawke to get “Blue Moon” even bigger nominations.
If none of that is going to happen, then just six movies are still alive – and as it stands, they can each be paired off into groups of two fighting each other. As such, maybe three separate showdowns will yield the winners of the last three Best Picture spots.
NEON’s No. 3 Slot: “No Other Choice” vs. “The Secret Agent”
Even as NEON dominated Cannes and film festival season by releasing and acquiring four international award winners, few really dared to get carried away with how many they could get into Best Picture. First only “Sentimental Value” was locked into the field as early as Cannes, then Cannes winner “It Was Just an Accident” took some more time to prove it was for real, and now the dream of NEON getting an historic three films in – let alone the greater history of getting three international films in – has exploded to the point where some even think all four could do it. But for now, the assumption still has to be that there can be only one more.
Both “No Other Choice” and “The Secret Agent” made their cases at the Golden Globes, each earning Best Picture and Best International Film nominations, and their respective lead actors, Lee Byung-hun and Wagner Moura, were nominated as well. Between that and the notable snubs of competitors like “Wicked: For Good,” “Jay Kelly,“ and “Train Dreams,“the door is wide open for at least NEON’s No. 3 film to sneak in – yet even now, no one can say for sure what that film is.
Both “No Other Choice“ and “The Secret Agent“ did what they were expected to do at the Globes, yet neither received a surprise nomination elsewhere that would have put one over the top. If neither one of them overperforms somewhere before Oscar nomination morning, they are just going to stay tightly locked together until only one gets in, or they both cancel each other out.
Recent history could be the biggest reason to favor “The Secret Agent,“ as the Brazilian voters pushing it also famously pushed “I’m Still Here“ and Fernanda Torres into the Oscars just last year. Between that and Moura seemingly being more secure for an Oscar nomination than Byung-hun, especially if Moura wins the Golden Globe like Torres did, it is very easy just to assume history will repeat itself. In addition, while the Brazilians have proven their voting power before, voters have never made such a push for “No Other Choice’s“ Park Chan-wook before.
Yet while “The Secret Agent“ likely has the advantage for an acting nomination, “No Other Choice“ looks like a better bet for a Screenplay nomination in a thinning Adapted field, while “The Secret Agent“ may have a tougher time, no matter whether it goes into Original or Adapted. The black comic satire “No Other Choice“ might also be more popular with broader audiences and voters, given its win of the first TIFF International People’s Choice Award. Neither is favored for a Best Director nomination since fellow NEON directors Joachim Trier and Jafar Panahi have a leg up on that front, so that likely won’t be a tiebreaker.
At this point, it is a win to have a third NEON Best Picture nomination look far more likely than it did a week ago. Even if the wildest dreams of both “No Other Choice“ and “The Secret Agent“ getting in remain out of reach, getting one of them in – and perhaps blocking one of the less critically adored American bubble films – would be met with joy by many American and international pundits and fans. As to which one of them could best pull it off, one may as well flip a coin to figure it out right now.
Netflix’s No. 2 Slot: “Train Dreams“ vs. “Jay Kelly”
NEON getting two films in, let alone three, would be historic for that studio, whereas Netflix getting two this year would bring it back to the days of 2019 to 2021. However, while Netflix cleaned up at the Globes with its No. 1 film in “Frankenstein,“ both competitors for a second Netflix spot suffered two of the biggest misses of the morning, leaving both “Train Dreams“ and “Jay Kelly“ back at square one.
“Train Dreams“ and “Jay Kelly“ went from making the NBR, AFI, and Critics’ Choice fields to getting knocked back with Golden Globes misses, with “Jay Kelly’s“ miss in favor of two Richard Linklater movies, far more shocking. Nonetheless, “Jay Kelly“ has the same working theory it has had ever since it disappointed at the Venice Film Festival, in that American industry insiders and voters will save it at the end because it is made mainly for them, if only them at this point.
If it’s down to “Jay Kelly“ vs “Train Dreams“ for a second Netflix spot, “Train Dreams“ is not only a less starry and industry tailored movie, it has the history of Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s late season collapse of “Sing Sing“ last year to overcome – which also started when it made NBR/AFI/CCA and then missed a Globes Best Picture nomination. And while “Train Dreams“ is a clear critics darling and critics push, will they be too divided between it and the last two NEON films to give it their full backing?
There is a scenario in which both Netflix films get in and finally give Netflix the three-film Best Picture haul it narrowly missed in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Yet now that Netflix is the biggest target in Hollywood for buying Warner Bros., this might not be the right year to give them that kind of historic validation. But if there’s only room for a second film and voters pick the only industry-beloved “Jay Kelly“ over the type of artsy, visually ambitious Netflix film it rarely puts out anymore in “Train Dreams,“ the optics won’t look too good either.
For much of the online and cinephile community, a scenario where a third NEON film gets in and “Train Dreams“ defeats “Jay Kelly“ for the second Netflix nomination would be the best-case scenario, and combined with the seven locked nominees to make the 2025 field one of the best received in the expanded era. And in that outcome, there will likely be less collective frustration if one of the last two, lesser-reviewed bubble films gets the final spot, whichever one it is.
The “Residual Love For Their Predecessors“ Slot: “Wicked: For Good“ vs. “Bugonia”
“Wicked: For Good“ is less a sequel to “Wicked“ and more of a Part Two, while “Bugonia“ is only a spiritual follow-up to “The Favourite“ and “Poor Things“ because it is the third time Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone are teaming in an awards season movie. But in both cases, these films were largely deemed inferior to their award-winning predecessors, yet they are still being kept alive for major nominations.
Some would argue “Wicked: For Good“ is already dead after Cynthia Erivo missed a Critics Choice nomination, the film shockingly missed a Golden Globes Picture nomination, and its box office trajectory may now come up just as short against “Wicked“ as its review scores did. In contrast, “Bugonia“ is only gaining more momentum as the race goes on, with its AFI/CCA/Globes nominations taking it closer to Best Picture contention than it’s been since its Venice premiere.
If “Wicked: For Good“ still finds its way in, it will probably be less about the quality of the film itself – no matter how much or how little one sees in it – and more about residual love for “Wicked“ and the entire saga as a whole, with voters checking off an old favorite simply for being an old favorite, as they can tend to do. One could say the same about “Bugonia,“ which is nowhere close to the unanimous raves and across-the-board nomination potential as “The Favourite” and “Poor Things.“ Yet voters’ love for Lanthimos, Stone, and the two of them together may push through to get another collaboration over the finish line one more time – and prove Stone is now on the level of actresses automatically checked in whenever voters have a chance to.
Like “Jay Kelly,” “Wicked: For Good,” and “Bugonia“ are the kind of Oscar bait voters are already comfortable voting for again and again, no matter what critics outside the industry actually say about them. But if the industry ignores this to the extent that all three of them get the last Best Picture spots, it will turn what could have been one of the most acclaimed fields of the era into yet another one collectively weighed down by three lower-rated films, like what happened in 2018, 2022, and 2024.
This is why, if it has to be between these six movies, picking one more NEON film, no matter what it is, getting “Train Dreams“ in over “Jay Kelly,“ and perhaps getting “Bugonia“ in over the even more divisive “Wicked: For Good“ will cause the least amount of widespread groaning on Oscar nomination morning. Or at the very least, in a group of “No Other Choice,” “The Secret Agent,“ and “Train Dreams,“ getting at least one or even two of them in will probably be met more positively than if two or three from a “Wicked: For Good,” “Jay Kelly,“ and “Bugonia“ group got in.
They could let a third NEON film and the two Netflix bubble films in to do that, cutting both “Wicked: For Good“ and “Bugonia“ out altogether. But in that outcome, both NEON and Netflix would get three films in and make up 60 percent of the Best Picture field, which is too much to do even in this imbalanced year – and again, it may not be the right timing to put three Netflix films in at this precise moment. So maybe voters just do what they were expected to do in preseason and let “Jay Kelly“ and “Wicked: For Good“ in, backlash be damned, and hope letting in a third NEON film will pacify critics just enough.
It would be very simple to reserve one of the last three spots for a third NEON movie, one for just a second Netflix nominee, and let longtime “Wicked“ fans and longtime Lanthimos and Stone fans battle it out to see which “less beloved than their predecessors“ film gets a free pass. However, when it comes to the Oscar bubble, the simplest path is not usually the one voters wind up taking, no matter who suffers from it and who gets the maddest at it. And with just these six films seemingly so far above the others who have been counted out, perhaps some bigger curveball or comeback is still pending.
So what do you think will be nominated for Best Picture? What were your reactions to the CCA/GG/NBR/AFI awards? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
