After its Venice International Film Festival and Telluride premieres, the Tim Fehlbaum directorial effort “September 5” garnered enough critical acclaim to launch into the awards season conversation. Major publications like “Variety” and “The Hollywood Reporter” quickly declared the historical drama film as a new possible Best Picture frontrunner, while Paramount Pictures picked the title up for domestic distribution from its sister company Republic Pictures. Certainly, with its buzzy cast (“Presumed Innocent’s” Peter Sarsgaard, “Past Lives’s” John Magaro, and “The Teachers’ Lounge’s” Leonie Benesch) and politically relevant subject matter (the 1972 Munich Olympic hostage crisis), “September 5” seemed like something that could strike a chord with Oscar voters.
But let’s back up a moment. Before we let the horses out of the barn, let’s make sure they won’t immediately run off a cliff. Is “September 5” actually destined for Oscar glory, or will it be a future “This Had Oscar Buzz” contender?
That status will get a little clearer once we hear from the Producers Guild Of America and BAFTA, but right now, what’s clear is “September 5,” putting aside the quality of the film itself (which some seem to be high on while others are lukewarm) is quickly establishing itself as an Oscar contender for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing. As of today, the film has received a single Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture – Drama, an Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Editing, two Critics Choice Award nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing, and a few critics mentions for these categories along with praise for the ensemble. While this may not seem like the kind of robust halt that would lead to a Best Picture nomination, the film has been largely underseen, and many weren’t even taking it seriously as a contender earlier in the season when it seemed to get lost in the wave of other high profile contenders.
However, this is truly a perfect “Oscar” film, especially politically. It plays very well for an older demographic (which the Academy predominantly still is comprised of) at a tight 94 minutes, and the genocide of Palestinians by Israeli forces (which did not start in the last 12 months) is just as timely as ever to make its subject matter resonate in a different way than what the filmmakers might’ve intended when they were making it (It’s really more so a film about the power and ethics of journalism during a live crisis). The film is starting to pick up a tremendous amount of steam in terms of domestic media notoriety and could continue if it receives a PGA nomination and has a strong showing at BAFTA.
Thematically, a film like “September 5” touching upon the Israeli/Palestinian conflict would allow Oscar voters to seem in touch with the modern world while simultaneously embracing this film as a “statement” about this genocide that wouldn’t overtly offend anyone since that’s not exactly what the film is about. “September 5” is about a third party in these geopolitical horrors, with its marketing not emphasizing any of the principal American characters as either Jewish or Palestinian. “September 5” touches on reality but doesn’t defer to one perspective in this matter. Not taking such a strong, one-sided approach allows it to play more broadly across different branches of the Academy. Meanwhile, it also tells its story of international turmoil through the lens of those in entertainment, like news broadcasters, which can make it extra relatable to Oscar voters.
Of course, this could all be a mirage that may not translate into any Oscar love. We saw this happen last year with contenders such as “Saltburn” and “Air,” which didn’t pick up any nominations because they couldn’t gain traction as large as some of the more significant contenders. Rather, these observations merely reflect the Academy’s tendency to gravitate toward political movies but also emphasize showbiz points of view and don’t wade too deep into really provocative waters. “September 5,” on paper and in its marketing, aligns with that mold. The film also hews closely to the tones of past Oscar darlings like “Argo” and “Spotlight,” both of which won Best Picture and were intense dramas focusing on everyday Americans navigating historical events. There’s no denying this tends to be the Academy’s bread and butter, and it’s likely why Paramount saw an opportunity with “September 5” when they acquired it this fall.
So, what factors could lead to it being a non-starter? For one thing, distributor Paramount Pictures. For one of the first times in the last decade (following 2022’s “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Babylon” double-whammy), the studio has lots of awards season irons in the fire. “Gladiator II” and “Better Man” are also taking up the studio’s For Your Consideration resources. “September 5” was a late addition to Paramount’s 2024 slate, which could make it an afterthought for their awards season strategists among the higher budgeted films, and so far, that has felt very much like the case, but the recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations should be causing the studio to re-evaluate where their campaign priorities should be lying.
Director and co-writer Tim Fehlbaum doesn’t have much cache with the Academy, with this Swiss filmmaker’s prior works being genre films like “Hell” and “Tides” that didn’t garner much awards attention in any significant way. It’s far from impossible to make a big Oscars splash with your English-language movie debut, but it’s certainly not easy either. “September 5” might have a smoother Oscar path ahead if it was from, say, Paul Greengrass, but its director is mainly unknown to most voters.
Meanwhile, the film’s actors haven’t garnered enough buzz to suggest anyone in “September 5’s” ensemble cast will get the kind of acting Oscar nomination that elevates the movie’s Oscar profile. However, if Peter Sarsgaard or John Magaro were to receive a surprise SAG and/or BAFTA nomination for Best Supporting Actor or the film got a SAG ensemble nomination, that could be a strong enough rising tide to lift “September 5” to Best Picture glory. On paper, “September 5” could be a ripe opportunity to give them long overdue Oscar nominations, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for that just yet, seeing as how neither are making a dent at this time in the conversation. But that SAG Ensemble nomination? That is more likely than many would care to admit.
Though it’s hard to see “September 5” breaking into the acting categories, Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing currently looks like “September 5’s” best bet to generate Oscar nominations beyond the Best Picture category. Remember, only seven post-2008 movies (including last year’s “Past Lives“) got Best Picture Oscar nominations while scoring only one other nomination. If you want to be a Best Picture Oscar nominee (let alone a winner), it doesn’t hurt to appeal to multiple categories and sectors of the Academy’s voting block. Without a slew of other potential nominations, “September 5” may struggle to get into the Best Picture category, let alone take home that award. However, all it really needs is just one more nomination, and currently, both Best Original Screenplay and Film Editing are on the table.
Still, if anything benefits “September 5” right now, it’s that the 97th Academy Awards race is way more wide open than any other Oscar race in December in recent memory. Many are looking for reasons to doubt “September 5,” but its path to a Best Picture nomination has been steadily building momentum under mostly everyone’s noses, especially since it has a major studio pushing its awards campaign, a timely premise, and an aesthetic reminiscent of past Oscar darlings. There are, however, tons of challenges facing “September 5” that won’t be easy to surmount, even within the chaotic uncertainty of the 2024-2025 award season. In other words, don’t either count out or doubt what voters are responding to. If they see it and they like it, there will be no stopping it. If it gets that PGA nomination, watch out!
Have you seen “September 5” yet? If so, what did you think of it? Do you believe it will be nominated for Best Picture? If not, what do you think the remainder of its awards path will be? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
