Although there are six months until Oscar night and the fall fests have only just started, it’s all too easy to think “The Odyssey” is unbeatable, because it has the strongest and seemingly most unshakable win package. Since it’s heavily favored to win Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, and at least two or three technical awards, and because no one seems to be threatening an upset in any of those categories yet, what movie could overtake “The Odyssey” with a better combination than that? The early days of Venice and Telluride revealed both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” have the same path to a win package that might make “The Odyssey” worry, but they may have to face off directly against each other to secure it.
Pre-fall predictions already had “Wild Horse Nine” as a favorite for Best Original Screenplay and a high threat for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor going into Venice. Likewise, “The Debut” had the presumed favorites for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor even before Telluride, with an outside shot at Best Original Screenplay. But now that both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” have finally been seen, the exact same path to a historic and possibly Best Picture winning combination has been cemented for them,and may lead to not one, but two massive collision courses between them.
For the moment, “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” have major lead acting favorites in John Malkovich and Julianne Moore, respectively, according to most in attendance at Venice and Telluride. Also, both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” appear to have the top two contenders for Best Supporting Actor with Sam Rockwell and Paul Giamatti, and are more clearly the #1 and #2 slots in Best Original Screenplay. If this holds after the rest of the fall fests – and after “Digger” comes out a short time later – then “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” will be poised for the biggest head-to-head rivalry of the entire season – one that could determine the biggest threat to “The Odyssey” if the winner sweeps.
Going on the premise that Malkovich and Moore will stay Best Actor and Best Actress favorites the rest of the season, the real question will be how long their coattails are. If Malkovich, and not Tom Cruise, is really the long-time veteran set to win Best Actor this year after decades of waiting, will that boost his biggest co-star’s efforts to win for a second time? And on the other end, if Moore goes on to win her second Oscar, will that boost her biggest co-star’s efforts to finally win for the first time? The raves for Malkovich were so loud at Venice and Telluride, they somewhat drowned out any raves and Oscar buzz for Rockwell. Yet the two were lauded so much for their work together, Searchlight’s awards campaign team can easily argue a Malkovich win wouldn’t be possible without Rockwell, and thus they should be a package deal in winning together. Then again, that same argument could also be used to make a case that Rockwell should be a co-lead, and should leave the Supporting Actor field altogether. But Martin McDonagh wasn’t swayed by such arguments when Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson were kept in separate categories for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” so precedent, if not consistency, points to him ignoring them again.
Most importantly, keeping Rockwell in Supporting and maximizing “Wild Horse Nine’s” chances of two acting wins – just like McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” had in 2017 when Rockwell won his first Oscar – is the best hope Searchlight has to keep any Best Picture dreams alive. Given that presumed Best Supporting Actress contender and newcomer Mariana di Girolamo didn’t seem to garner much buzz as a win-competitive option – therefore making Anne Hathaway look all the more untouchable – and that the likes of Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey may have a hard fight just getting nominated, Rockwell is “Wild Horse Nine’s” best (if not only) chance by far for that all-important second acting win. And if there’s a path where both Malkovich and Rockwell can sweep the male acting categories, it would make Best Original Screenplay all the more valuable and perhaps game changing.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” may well have won Best Picture in 2017 if it had two acting wins and a screenplay win. But “Get Out” blocked it for Best Original Screenplay and gave just enough of an opening for “The Shape of Water” to hold on in Best Picture. As such, when the first reactions for “Wild Horse Nine” declared Malkovich and the script as the surefire Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay favorites, it made the Best Picture path for “Wild Horse Nine” extra tantalizing and perhaps made Rockwell all the more important. Right after Venice and after its opening screening at Telluride, it was easy to imagine that with just a few breaks, “Wild Horse Nine” could have a Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay win combination that might give “The Odyssey” a truly serious challenge. In this era, films like “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” and “The Fighter” won two acting Oscars, but couldn’t take Best Picture because they had no other above-the-line wins, unlike when “Oppenheimer” won two acting Oscars and Best Director in 2023. And historically, with exceptions like “Moonstruck” in 1987 and “The Piano” in 1993, winning two acting Oscars and a Screenplay Oscar is a virtually unbeatable package for Best Picture. For at least 24 hours, “Wild Horse Nine” saw a clear path to such an unbeatable package. And then about 24 hours later, it turned out “The Debut” saw the exact same thing.
Like with the first screenings for “Wild Horse Nine,” the first screenings for “The Debut” had wall-to-wall proclamations that its lead was undeniable for an Oscar. Similar to “Wild Horse Nine,” the massive raves for “The Debut’s” lead sort of drowned out the praise for its supporting actor favorite, but he still clearly received enough of it to keep being considered a frontrunner. And like with “Wild Horse Nine,” the first raves for “The Debut” also loudly cited its script as a Best Original Screenplay favorite. Now all of a sudden, “The Debut” has its own workable scenario where Moore can overpower her way to Best Actress, have enough momentum for Giamatti to give the film a second acting Oscar, and set up a chance for it to add Best Original Screenplay to its haul too. And if that is the film that has two acting Oscars and a screenplay win, it would then become the film that rivals any win package “The Odyssey” is favored for. Yet to do that, “The Debut” must foil “Wild Horse Nine’s” own dream of the exact same combination – and do it while the two are currently #1 and #2 in both Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay.
Right now, since Rockwell and Giamatti are being so overshadowed by Malkovich and Moore in the early going, it might be hard to argue either of them has enough momentum on their own to win. However, this early in the season, it’s hard to name anyone else in Best Supporting Actor that is more of a surefire threat to win – at least until John Goodman and the other supporting actors of “Digger” show themselves, or the likes of Edward Norton (“The Invite“), John Leguizamo (“The Odyssey“), Jeremy Strong (“The Social Reckoning“), Guy Pearce (“Ink“) or “La Bola Negra’s” Guitarricadelafuente prove they have a better chance than just a nomination. As such, between Rockwell’s past success and Giamatti’s overdue narrative, they have to be considered the top two until further notice.
Even with all that “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” showed at Venice and Telluride, and with the Best Picture paths they’ve started to lay out, many would still argue “La Bola Negra” is the #1 threat to “The Odyssey” no matter what. However, in the early going, “La Bola Negra’s” most likely win package for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best International Film, and maybe a bonus below-the-line Oscar somewhere would not seem to equal what “The Odyssey” is favored to do. Unless Penélope Cruz really can upset Hathaway for a five-minute appearance, Guitarricadelafuente or Lola Dueñas can become a greater threat for an acting win, a Best Casting win is huge enough to make a difference like it did for “One Battle After Another,” or Los Javis can surge to shock Nolan for Best Director, “La Bola Negra” has a harder path to maximize its perfect win package than “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut.”
Nonetheless, even with both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” hoping for three above-the-line Oscars, the odds might still not be in either’s favor to do it. For the moment, pundits still lean toward “Wild Horse Nine” only winning Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay without another acting win, and favor “The Debut” to win for Moore and Giamatti but not for Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay. Even if things change, the second most likely outcome might be “Wild Horse Nine” having two acting wins but losing Screenplay just like “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” did, while “The Debut” takes Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay but has Giamatti lose anyway.
Of course, if Malkovich is overtaken by Cruise, Andrew Scott (“Elsinore“), or Matt Damon (“The Odyssey“), if Moore gets a real fight from Indie Navarrette (“Obsession“), or if both Giamatti and Rockwell really don’t stand out enough to stay as long-term frontrunners, this will become moot. The only way either “Wild Horse Nine” or “The Debut” can pose any threat to “The Odyssey” is for everything to go absolutely perfectly for them in their lead categories, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay, and another major obstacle to all that may well be each other. Though even if one of them sweeps these three major Oscars, would all they really win is runner-up status to “The Odyssey” anyway?
With a long six months ahead, it is natural to resist thinking “The Odyssey” already has everything well in hand this early, like “Oppenheimer” did and like “One Battle After Another” essentially did with many months to spare. Yet until “The Odyssey” shows it could lose either Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, or most, if not all, of the tech categories, it’s hard to see any other film with a better combination of Oscar wins before Best Picture. But this is why “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” both facing off for the exact same win combination may become the major showdown of the season.
Do you think “The Odyssey” is already secure in Best Picture? Or do either “Wild Horse Nine” or “The Debut” pose a real threat? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
