Hot take: Predicting Emmy winners can sometimes be easier than it seems. The Television Academy has a history of awarding previous winners for its top prizes: “Succession,” “Veep,“ and “Ted Lasso“ have all won multiple Outstanding Drama or Comedy Series in the past ten years. Naturally, many of the corresponding actors and actresses of these popular shows have been recognized repeatedly for their performances as well: Julia Louis-Dreyfus takes the cake with an unprecedented six-year run for Lead Actress for a Comedy Series, but Jason Sudeikis and Matthew Macfadyen have both won acting trophies twice for the same roles, which is no small feat. While the Television Academy likes to play favorites, there’s always a chance a newcomer can bounce in and disrupt the game. In this year’s comedy race, there’s one show that can’t be ignored: “The Studio.“ Will it be enough to take down the Emmy darlings in “Hacks“ and “The Bear?“
“The Studio“ has been making waves in the industry as a not-so-satirical look at both the glamorous and frustrating side of show business – a theme also commonly focused on by its Emmy rival, “Hacks.“ Centering on Seth Rogen’s Matt Remick, a passionate cinema lover who is handed his dream job of running the fictional Continental Studios, he quickly learns what his predecessor Patty Leigh, played by Catherine O’Hara, unsubtly tells him: the job is a meat grinder. Decisions are made, movies are greenlit and ruined (some by Matt himself), and hijinks ensue, all culminating in some very entertaining television about the movie business. Will its esoteric look at the entertainment industry be fruitful come Emmy season, or a little too on-the-nose for academy members?
Where “The Studio“ Can Win
While the acting performances, particularly by Rogen as Remick and Ike Barinholtz as his right-hand man, Sal Saperstein, are high contenders for the top prizes, “The Studio“ shines brightest in its direction. The series’s second episode, appropriately named “The Oner,“ is masterfully shot in its namesake title and has favorable odds of winning Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series for Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg. The trio of “Hacks“ creators, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, and Lucia Aniello, will likely score a directing nomination as well, but “The Studio“ may have the easiest path to victory in the aforementioned category.
Less confidently, Seth Rogen has a shot at picking up his first Emmy win for Lead Actor for a Comedy Series over Martin Short, who’s coming off his 2024 SAG Award win for the same category. With no competition from “Hacks“ and a faltering third season, and overall pushback for category fraud by “The Bear,“ Jeremy Allen White could likely be unseated for the first time for his complex performance as Carmy. What could (but shouldn’t) disrupt Rogen’s path to victory is an exceptionally strong rebound, with “The Bear’s“ fourth season premiering at the end of June. While voting members are strictly voting on season three’s performances, a highly-lauded season four could be at the top of their minds and muddle some votes for season three.
Where “Hacks“ Can Win
While “Hacks“ faces some steep competition across the board, it has been an Emmy favorite in each of its three seasons, amassing 48 nominations and nine wins. Jean Smart has won Lead Actress for a Comedy Series three years in a row, and without stiff competition from “The Studio“ or other contenders, she should cruise into Emmy Sunday as the favorite once again. Hannah Einbinder, on the other hand, has yet to win Outstanding Supporting Actress for her work as Ava Daniels, but that may finally change this year. Competition in the Supporting Actress category runs deep, including excellent performances from “The Studio’s” Catherine O’Hara and evergreen scene-stealer Kathryn Hahn, plus reigning winner Liza Colón-Zayas for “The Bear.“ But Einbinder has arguably never been better than in the latest season of “Hacks,“ delicately balancing the pain and love of the ups and downs of her relationship with Deborah. Outside of the acting categories, “Hacks“ can be expected to walk away with the win for Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series over “The Bear“ and “The Studio.”
“Hacks“ also brings in a few heavy hitters for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series by way of previous 2 x nominee Kaitlin Olson and newcomer to the series Julianne Nicholson. While Olson’s role as Deborah’s daughter DJ has been dialed back in season four, Nicholson has stolen the show with her slapstick comedy, physicality, and emotional depth she brings to her Dance Mom character. Nicholson is a strong contender, particularly for her comedy chops, but don’t count out Jamie Lee Curtis and “The Bear.”
Where “The Bear“ Can Win
“The Bear“ may not be the lead candidate for many top categories this year, but that doesn’t mean it will go home empty-handed. Both the Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Comedy Series categories have very strong candidates from “The Bear“ in Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon Bernthal. Curtis has stiff competition from a wild but lovable performance from Julianne Nicholson in “Hacks“ and numerous candidates from “The Studio“ (Olivia Wilde, Sarah Polley, Zoë Kravitz, and Greta Lee all showing up with Emmy-worthy performances), but her win last year in the same category may very well tilt the odds slightly in her favor for another win this year. Bernthal will also go against heavyweights in the Guest Actor category, namely Martin Scorsese (wild, I know, but how fun would that be?), Bryan Cranston, and Dave Franco from “The Studio.“ And let’s not count out Bradley Cooper for his incredible work as Elijah Gemstone in possibly one of the best episodes of “The Righteous Gemstones’s” entire series. We’ve all seen what Cooper can do when he commits to an award show campaign, so it’s no easy stroll to victory for Bernthal. And don’t count out Ebon Moss-Bachrach in Supporting Actor for a Comedy, but the expectations feel higher for Harrison Ford’s first Emmy win as Dr. Paul Rhoades in “Shrinking.”
The Top Prize Of The Night: Outstanding Comedy Series
Last year, “Hacks“ unseated “The Bear“ as the top dog in comedy, but there’s a chance “The Studio“ could be the great disruptor in its race for consecutive wins. At this point, “The Bear“ is number three in the race, leaving “Hacks“ and “The Studio“ as the top contenders. “The Studio“ could be seen as a little too inside-baseball for the general population. Still, those inside the industry are voting, so skewering Hollywood may play in its favor in the Emmy race. But there’s something “The Studio“ might not be able to overcome: “Hacks“ has four seasons of hype, nine Emmy wins, and HBO backing its campaign.
“When you make a good movie, it’s good forever,“ claims the wise Patty Leigh. But is “The Studio“ good enough for the Emmys? History often repeats itself, so it’s a safe bet that “Hacks“ goes home with the top prize, but “The Studio” won’t be empty-handed. This just leaves us with the biggest question of the night: Will anyone thank Sal Saperstein?
Emmy Win Predictions:
“Hacks”
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress for a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
“The Studio”
Outstanding Lead Actor for a Comedy Series
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
“The Bear”
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
What do you think of this year’s comedy race for the Emmy Awards? Will “Hacks“ take home the top prize again? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast, where we interview Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discuss the race.
