Who is the frontrunner in Best Supporting Actress?
With every major awards announcement, it seems that this answer changes drastically and becomes more complex. So far, every major precursor has awarded a different actress. Amy Madigan was widely expected to win Critics’ Choice for “Weapons,” considering her dominance at regional critics circles and how much press and critics alike seemed to rally behind this performance, so when she picked up the first award in this soon-to-be chaotic race, it was far from a surprise. However, we were all aware that this win alone guaranteed nothing, especially since “Weapons” was not widely predicted for a Best Picture nomination… or for any category outside Best Supporting Actress. Heading into the Golden Globes, she was the slight favorite, but there was still a possibility for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in a film with 8 other Globe nods or Teyana Taylor as a scene-stealer in the odds-on favorite for the top prize at the Globes. The latter took home the award in an upset, delivering perhaps the best speech of the night in the process. After this win, Taylor became the de facto frontrunner, especially with “One Battle After Another” looking like the Best Picture juggernaut. This case was only strengthened after the BAFTA nominations, when she became the only actress in contention for Best Supporting Actress to receive nominations from BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Actor Awards, the Golden Globes, and, of course, the Oscars. Wunmi Mosaku missed the Golden Globes, Madigan missed the BAFTAs, and Lilleaas missed the Actor Awards.
Yet after the BAFTAs, a ceremony where “One Battle After Another” had an otherwise incredible win haul—it won Best Film, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor for Sean Penn, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography—Best Supporting Actress is once again up in the air. Though some predicted it because of “Sinners’s” strong performance here and the previous BAFTA winner’s stature as a respected British actress, it was nonetheless shocking to see her take the statue home. Could this make her the new favorite to win the Oscar? An acting Oscar winner almost always wins one of the BAFTA or the Actor Award, so it currently seems to be the case. However, this race is far from over, as the Actor Awards this Sunday could still change everything. Each of Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku has arguments to win the Oscar, and a decisive Actor Award victory could be just what it takes to pull it off.
Madigan has the advantage of being perhaps the most respected actor of the three before the release of their respective films. She is a Golden Globe winner and a Primetime Emmy nominee, and her film career spans decades. Another element in her favor is just how iconic her performance as the kooky, villainous Aunt Gladys is. It is the most transformational acting out of the bunch, with Madigan completely disappearing into this terrifying but endlessly entertaining woman. It is not hard to see this voting body of actors, which often leans a bit more populist than other awards shows and also prefers transformational performances, ultimately awarding Madigan. Should she win the Actor Award, however, victory is far from assured. It is rare for acting winners to overcome a miss at either the BAFTA or the Actor Award, and Madigan’s main competitors hail from the two strongest films of the year. There would need to be a clear outpouring of support for her during her speech and after the ceremony for me to consider her taking the Oscar, but the narrative is absolutely there.
Unlike Madigan, who needs a win at the Actor Awards to stay in the conversation, Taylor will remain a serious threat for the win no matter what happens on Sunday. While Taylor is absent for much of “One Battle After Another,” she has an entire segment of the film devoted to the complex moral dilemma Perfidia Beverly Hills faces, and her impact on the narrative is felt at every twist and turn. As long as Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterwork is winning Best Picture, it is impossible to discount her chances of winning. That being said, a win at the Actor Awards would significantly boost her chances, since heading into the race with a lone Golden Globe win is not the best. The Actor Awards voters clearly adored “One Battle After Another,” considering it broke their record for the most nominations for a single film. There are awards shows where the juggernaut handily won the top prize without snagging a win for Taylor, but in a race this splintered, her individual passion and the film’s passion as a whole could pay off here and at the Oscars. Should she take this award home, the race will still clearly be between Taylor and Mosaku, but I would lean toward Taylor because of her Golden Globe and her film being the likely Best Picture winner.
I maintain that Taylor will be in contention for the win no matter who wins the Actor Award. The same can be said for Mosaku, who is at worst a close second at the Oscars. However, if Mosaku wins this Sunday, she becomes the obvious pick to win Best Supporting Actress. It is exceedingly rare for actors to win the BAFTA and the Actor Award and still lose the Oscar; the most recent example is Daniel Day-Lewis for “Gangs of New York” in 2003. “Sinners” is widely projected to win Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, and if we think this is the one awards body where “Sinners” beats “One Battle After Another,” why wouldn’t Mosaku beat Taylor? While her role may be the least technically flashy of the three, the strength and love she imbues Annie with in even her quietest moments is more than enough for many to come away from the film singing unending praises for her. Even if she loses the Actor Award, she can remain the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress solidly if Taylor is not the one who wins the award.
Ultimately, this intensely competitive race for Best Supporting Actress could go several ways. It has been absolutely confounding in the best possible way, and until we know more on Sunday, it is still anyone’s game between Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku. While the latter seems to have the lead now, this Oscar season has been delightfully surprising in practically every category except Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Screenplay. I personally cannot wait to see how the Actor Awards impact this race tomorrow night.
Who do you think is winning Best Supporting Actress at the Actor Awards and subsequently the Oscars? Do you see a path for anyone else to win the Oscar at this point? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
