This year’s award season has continued to remind us that nothing is ever set in stone, especially in a year as chaotic as this. As the fall film festivals wrapped up, many seemed to believe Brady Corbet would be the frontrunner to win Best Director for his work on “The Brutalist.” It makes sense, considering the herculean task he accomplished in making that movie with such limited resources, in this case, less than a $10 million budget. It also helped that “The Brutalist” premiered out of the Venice Film Festival with broad critical acclaim, becoming (if only for a brief moment) the frontrunner for Best Picture. Since then, the last few months have not been as ideal for “The Brutalist” as it seems not only has the film slipped away from possibly taking the Best Picture Oscar, but Corbet’s chances at winning Best Director have gone down, too.
Don’t get it twisted; Corbet is still very much in this race after winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA for Best Director, but his precursor run has failed to turn into the sweep many imagined it would be. It doesn’t help that at this very moment, the only other filmmaker who is in the running is Sean Baker (“Anora“) after his surprising but substantial DGA win. As we rapidly approach the Oscars ceremony this Sunday, here’s a look at the Best Director race and whether Baker or Corbet has a better shot at taking home the gold.
Truth be told, until Baker’s win at DGA, we didn’t think he would be contending for a win in this category. Many (including myself) have assumed all season long that Baker would be taking home an Academy Award for screenwriting, which is also still very possible. That DGA award was a real head-scratcher until a few hours later when “Anora” also took home the PGA award. With those two wins and “Anora” winning Best Film at CCA the night before, it was clear “Anora” catapulted back to the frontrunner status at which it started the season. In retrospect, the CCA not awarding Baker or Corbet for Best Director is beyond weird, but it could honestly be that Jon M. Chu’s winning Best Director was due to that voting body’s adoration for “Wicked.” While Chu did not earn an Oscar nomination for “Wicked,” Baker and Corbet certainly did. Until the BAFTA awards, each awarding body had bestowed a win in Best Director to a different filmmaker. That was until Corbet took home the BAFTA award for Best Director to go along with his Golden Globe win. This could’ve been the moment Baker might’ve capitalized on his DGA win and added a BAFTA award to seal the deal for the Oscars. Instead, now he is only rocking a lone DGA win to his precursor run.
The last time a director won only DGA and proceeded to win the Academy Award for Best Director was in 2014 (Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Birdman“). This also happened with Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech” in 2010. It’s a rare occurrence, but it’s also connected to a filmmaker whose film ends up taking up Best Picture at the Oscars, which “Anora” can very much achieve. The frontrunner status for “Anora” is somewhat flimsy as “Conclave” is nipping its heels after recently winning Best Film at BAFTA and Best Ensemble at SAG. Still, with a combination of PGA and DGA, “Anora” has enough momentum to keep going, and that only fuels the prediction that Baker will receive a win in Best Director. Also, if the Academy decides to award Best Original Screenplay to something other than “Anora,” let’s say “A Real Pain,” then it makes sense that they would default to Baker for a win in directing. It also lines up with how, besides WGA, Baker has struggled to rack up wins in Best Original Screenplay (losing to “The Substance” at CCA and “A Real Pain” at BAFTA). It’s hard to imagine a world where Baker doesn’t win one of these Oscars if not both, especially if you believe “Anora” is taking home the Academy Award for Best Picture.
What is keeping Corbet in the race besides his wins at Globe and BAFTA is the overall performance “The Brutalist” can have at the Oscars. With potential wins in Best Cinematography, Best Score, and Best Actor, how is a win for Corbet in Best Director still not in the cards? Just because a Best Picture win for “The Brutalist” might be done doesn’t mean he can’t win. For a film that has had “criticisms” of voters not being able to finish it due to its length or other ridiculous claims, it still very much overperformed nomination-wise. It’s gotten nearly everything it needed to all season long (minus a SAG ensemble nomination), but there is overwhelming respect for what Corbet has accomplished in a film that could appeal far more to international voters of the Academy than what Baker did for “Anora.” Just because it could do well below the line doesn’t mean that Corbet is necessarily taking home the win. Remember, this is the same Academy that gave six Oscars to “Dune: Part One” and didn’t even nominate Denis Villeneuve. This is a tight race between the two that only has Baker leading due to the overall likelihood of “Anora” winning Best Picture. Still, it’s a toss-up that will have us wondering whose name will be announced when that envelope is opened.
Who do you think will win the Oscar for Best Director at the 97th Academy Awards? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account, and check out our latest Oscar winner predictions here (or you can listen to them on the podcast here).
