Timothée Chalamet opening a film at Christmas time has become a holiday tradition, and now so is his opening an awards season film at Christmas time too. Just as “A Complete Unknown” came out right during the holiday and Oscar season rush and stormed to being one of 2024’s most nominated films, “Marty Supreme” hopes to do the same this holiday/Oscar season, and also get Chalamet the Best Actor win he couldn’t get twelve months ago.
In some ways, “Marty Supreme” is already well ahead of what “A Complete Unknown” pulled off a year ago. But in others, there’s still a big question about whether “Marty Supreme” will peak after the New Year – and on Oscar nomination morning – the same way “A Complete Unknown” did.
Reviews, Box Office, And Being Locked Into Best Picture
When “A Complete Unknown” first screened for critics, they weren’t blown away by the movie as a whole as much as by Chalamet. As such, it took a while for the movie to be considered a sure thing for Best Picture and to be a major player beyond just Chalamet. Even when it did, its mere 82 percent/7.4 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes and mere 70 on MetaCritic made it join “Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez” as the three movies that dragged down the averages of the entire 2024 Best Picture field.
However, the minute “Marty Supreme” had a “surprise screening” at the New York Film Festival, pundits couldn’t stop raving about it. And it appears that even outside of that very carefully selected audience in New York, the raves are still building up. In fact, as of December 20, it even rivals “One Battle After Another” and NEON’s international darlings in its high scores, with a 95 percent/9.0 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 on MetaCritic.
With those numbers, “Marty Supreme,” unlike “A Complete Unknown,” has already been deemed as a “safe” film to reach Best Picture before it actually opens and tests itself with general audiences. Yet, considering its significant box-office numbers on a six-theater platform release this past weekend and reports of substantial pre-sales for its Christmas-wide release, those general audiences might well take to it the same way.
“A Complete Unknown” solidified its momentum with a $75 million domestic box office haul, although being about a famous musician and being backed by Searchlight Pictures surely helped. “Marty Supreme” doesn’t have decades-old classic songs for Chalamet to sing as a famous icon, and it’s backed by A24, a studio that has never released a film of this size. As such, just getting to $70 million and making back its budget would make it one of the biggest box-office stories of 2025, though even something in the $50-60 million range may be advertised as a win.
Whether it will lead to a far bigger splash with the Academy is another matter.
Peaking At The Right Time Beyond Chalamet
When “A Complete Unknown“ came out, Chalamet was pretty much the whole story, and the only thing really considered for awards attention for some time. Even as a Best Picture nomination started falling into place, it was hard to imagine it could get that much more, or really needed much more.
The Golden Globes were a modest beginning for “A Complete Unknown“ among the major precursors, as it received nominations for Best Picture, Chalamet, and Edward Norton for Best Supporting Actor. Nonetheless, those three nominations and maybe one or two below the line were considered to be the best haul it could get – until it kept growing and growing and other elements started coming along with it.
By the time Oscar nomination morning came out, “A Complete Unknown“ not only got surprise nominations for James Mangold in Best Director, Monica Barbaro in Best Supporting Actress, and a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, but it also tied for the third most nominations of the year with eight overall. It was very clear that opening at the right time during the holidays and Oscar season paid off, allowing it to peak at the optimal moment, at least in terms of nominations.
Now, a year later, “Marty Supreme“ looks to take the same route, where it is already pacing ahead and behind in a few ways.
Unlike “A Complete Unknown,” “Marty Supreme“ is presented as an across-the-board nominee from the very start, with more than just Chalamet in the running. Unlike Mangold, director Josh Safdie is right in the thick of the bubble for Best Director before the industry has weighed in. Unlike with Barbaro and Elle Fanning, “Marty Supreme“ already has two Best Supporting Actress possibilities right on the bubble before Christmastime, with Odessa A’zion possibly set to match Barbaro as a fast-charging newcomer barging into the field and past her more veteran co-star in Gwyneth Paltrow. And unlike “A Complete Unknown,” “Marty Supreme“ is already considered locked for a Screenplay nomination, this time in Original.
The only big difference is that “Marty Supreme” doesn’t have anyone like Norton to factor into Best Supporting Actor – no matter what jokes might be made about Kevin O’Leary. Otherwise, “Marty Supreme“ seems to be ahead of “A Complete Unknown’s“ pace in being in the running for multiple nominations. However, that might make it more ironic if it goes in the opposite direction later.
Like “A Complete Unknown,” “Marty Supreme“ underperformed at the Golden Globes, receiving only three nominations: Best Picture, Chalamet, and Best Screenplay. While Safdie is otherwise further along in precursor and critics groups nominations than Mangold was at this time last year, he is nowhere near locked into the Director field, which already has Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Chloe Zhao, Guillermo del Toro, and several international directors crowded alongside him. And while A’zion already has more recognition from critics groups than Barbaro had. However, she missed the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice nominations, and the Best Supporting Actress field, with Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Wunmi Mosaku, Ariana Grande, and Fanning herself, is already crowded enough.
When “A Complete Unknown“ finally opened and found box-office legs during the holidays and Oscar voting, that was how the likes of Mangold, Norton, Barbaro, and many more gained the late momentum to steal their nominations at the end. If “Marty Supreme“ also overperforms at the box office these next few weeks – albeit with a far different, younger target audience than “A Complete Unknown“ – will that give its non-Chalamet elements the late surge to join him on Oscar nomination morning too? If Safdie gets into DGA as Mangold did, and A’zion or Paltrow salvages a lone SAG nomination as Barbaro did, it will undoubtedly look like a very familiar setup.
But while “A Complete Unknown“ started slow and then got hot right before Oscar nominations, could starting much hotter lead to a faster pre-nomination burnout for “Marty Supreme“ in an ironic reversal?
Can Chalamet – And His Movie – Do Better After Nominations This Time?
Of course, the major story of “Marty Supreme“ is Chalamet and his quest to finally be one of the youngest Best Actor winners ever, just like it was the major story of “A Complete Unknown.“ Yet after “A Complete Unknown“ came on so strong at the nominations stage, it fell apart just as quickly, as whatever magic it had used up to that point instantly faded out and left it completely shut out on Oscar night. And as everyone had assumed from the start, Chalamet was the only element of his film that came close to an Oscar win, though the only sign that he was realistically close to knocking off Adrien Brody was a late SAG win.
For all of “Marty Supreme’s“ early raves and early major nomination potential, the same story could be playing out in the long term again. Safdie, A’zion, and Paltrow are only fighting for nominations instead of wins at this point, and the early domination of “Sinners“ and “It Was Just an Accident“ in Best Original Screenplay precursors could leave “Marty Supreme“ as an also-ran for the win there, too. And thanks to the historic early run of both “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners“ in winning every Best Picture critics prize, “Marty Supreme“ might only have realistic hopes to fill out the top three or top five in Best Picture.
If nothing changes soon, “Marty Supreme“ will be the second straight Chalamet Christmas-time movie to be a significant factor in nominations, but not a major factor for wins beyond Chalamet. And like last year, Chalamet’s path to finally winning isn’t any clearer.
Like last year, Chalamet is once again battling a past Oscar winner from a movie that is a major Best Picture contender, in this case Leonardo DiCaprio instead of Brody. Like last year, there is also another long-overdue veteran behind them, in this case, Ethan Hawke instead of Ralph Fiennes. Like last year, they are also joined by a rising star from an early-season critical darling, in this case, Michael B. Jordan instead of Colman Domingo. And this year, the likes of Wagner Moura, Joel Edgerton, Jesse Plemons, and Lee Byung-hun are formidable challengers trying to round out the field, like Sebastian Stan, Daniel Craig, and Hugh Grant were last year.
Brody had a stranglehold on Best Actor from the start last year, which cushioned him against Chalamet’s late charge in the end. Yet with Chalamet, DiCaprio, Jordan, Hawke, and Moura to a lesser extent splitting the early Best Actor precursors this year, at the very least, Best Actor looks far more chaotic right now than it ever was last year. Will such heavier competition make it harder than ever for Chalamet this time, or will the lack of a Brody-like frontrunner make it easier for him to take over if, or when, industry precursors like SAG get behind him?
If it goes exactly like last year, DiCaprio will start pulling ahead for his second Oscar soon – especially since, unlike with Brody, his film is the clearest favorite to win Best Picture. Yet if Chalamet does what he couldn’t do against Brody and wins the Golden Globe and/or Critics’ Choice, things finally won’t look exactly like they did for him 12 months ago, and might create a steamroller effect for him by the time SAG and the Oscars come.
While some key things are different, Chalamet and “Marty Supreme“ are, at the moment, looking the same in the big picture as Chalamet and “A Complete Unknown“ did exactly a year ago. But if box office and early industry precursors break differently, maybe a few endings on Oscar night will become different this time, too.
Have you seen “Marty Supreme” yet? If so, what did you think of it? Do you believe Timothée Chalamet will be nominated for Best Actor? Do you think this year he can win? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
