What a season! There have been so many headline-grabbing Broadway productions (for better and worse) that the 2024-25 season will likely go down as one of the more noteworthy ones of the post-COVID theatrical era. There’s a Best Musical category that’s anyone’s game, arguably the most jam-packed Best Actress in a Musical race in Tony history, and the most talked-about show of the whole season is an absurdist play that reimagines a first lady as an alcoholic cabaret star. The Tony nominations will be announced soon, so here’s my best guess as to what shows and creatives will hear their names called on Thursday morning.
Best Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Alt: Real Women Have Curves
Like last year, the race for Best Musical feels pretty wide open. Dead Outlaw and Maybe Happy Ending feel like the two most likely nominees, both having garnered stellar reviews. Expect the screen-to-stage adaptation of Death Becomes Her to also have a good nomination morning – it’s a musical-comedy sensation that proves that film adaptations can rise above their original source material. The British sensation Operation Mincemeat is likely to also make an appearance, meaning the last spot may come down to Buena Vista Social Club and Real Women Have Curves. I’m giving a slight edge to the former – the theatrical ode to the Cuban musical ensemble of the same name has been widely acclaimed for its vibrant, life-affirming energy.
That means that the well-reviewed Just in Time, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, and a handful of new musicals that received more mixed notices (BOOP! The Musical, Redwood, Smash) will likely be left out. In a lesser season, any number of them likely would’ve made it in, but they had the misfortune to open in an unusually strong season for new – and most notably, original – musicals.
Best Play
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
Alt: Good Night, and Good Luck
Oh, Mary! isn’t just the frontrunner in this (and many other) categories; it’s arguably the number one theatrical event of the season. However, John Proctor is the Villain earned some of the best reviews of the year for a new play, so the path to Tony victory for Oh, Mary! isn’t quite as smooth as it appeared for most of the season. The Hills of California closed before the end of 2024, but Jez Butterworth’s play (he previously won this category for The Ferryman) was well-regarded enough to still likely earn a nomination. Ditto for Sanaz Toossi’s Pulitzer-winning play English, which closed in March.
Curiously, a trio of recognizable, name-brand new plays (Good Night, and Good Luck, The Picture of Dorian Gray, and Stranger Things: The First Shadow) will likely be passed over for the smaller yet better-reviewed quintet listed above. In the past, the Tonys have made a point to skip big-ticket productions in this category (I’m looking at you, Aaron Sorkin’s To Kill a Mockingbird) for more highly regarded albeit less tourist-friendly plays.
Best Revival of a Musical
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Boulevard
Alt: Once Upon a Mattress
There’s very little wiggle room in this category. It would, frankly, be a shock if the quartet of nominees looked any different than these predicted four, with the long-closed Once Upon a Mattress unlikely to trounce any of the still-running top contenders. The only other eligible productions (the holiday perennial Elf and the poorly-reviewed Broadway debut of The Last Five Years) stand little chance of making it in.
Best Revival of a Play
Eureka Day
Glengarry Glen Ross
Our Town
Yellow Face
Alt: Othello
Although the play revival category also has only seven eligible productions, it’s a much tougher call than the equivalent musical revival category. The Denzel Washington-Jake Gyllenhaal helmed production of Shakespeare’s Othello has made headlines both for its exorbitant ticket prices and lackluster critical reception. Could Tony-winner Kenny Leon’s revival slip into the nominees on star power alone? It’s possible, and the same could be said of another Shakespearean remounting (which was better received) – Romeo & Juliet, starring popular actors Rachel Zegler and Kit Connor, which closed back in February. The only other contender is the long-forgotten remounting of Samm-Art Williams’s Home.
Best Actress in a Musical
Megan Hilty – Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald – Gypsy
Nicole Scherzinger – Sunset Boulevard
Helen J. Shen – Maybe Happy Ending
Jennifer Simard – Death Becomes Her
Alt: Jasmine Amy Rogers – BOOP! The Musical
Let’s be honest: this category is why you clicked on this article. Even before last year’s Tonys had been handed out, there was already excitement for this category’s deep bench of contenders. It’s an absolute embarrassment of riches, and even if the number of potential nominees doubled to ten, it would still be possible to fill it with great performances. But alas, it must come down to five…although with the way the Tony’s nominating rules work, it wouldn’t be surprising for there to be a tie or two, pushing the number of nominees up to six or even seven. That being said, although there are so many extraordinary performances from our singing and dancing leading ladies this year, the potential top-five feels oddly somewhat secure.
Watch out for Jasmine Amy Rogers, whose performance in the aggressively titled “BOOP!” was singled out in even the most negative of reviews. The same applies to previous winners Idina Menzel in “Redwood” and Adrienne Warren in “The Last Five Years.” Plus, there’s two-time Tony winner Sutton Foster in the long-closed “Once Upon a Mattress,” Natasha Hodgson in “Operation Mincemeat,” Tatianna Cordoba in “Real Women Have Curves,” and Robyn Hurder in “Smash.” I’m dizzy just thinking about the star power that this category will attempt to contain, and for once, I don’t envy the nominating committee for having to make some really tough choices.
Best Actor in a Musical
Darren Criss – Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand – Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis – Sunset Boulevard
Jonathan Groff – Just in Time
David Hyde Pierce – Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Alt: Jeremy Jordan – Floyd Collins
Although far less exciting than the Best Actress category (sorry, boys), the Best Actor in a Musical contenders are unquestionably strong, with no one performance running ahead of the pack as an obvious winner. Andrew Durand and Jonathan Groff (who won just last year) received incredible reviews for their work in shows that opened right around the eligibility cut-off. The same can be said for the previous winner, David Hyde Pierce. Tom Francis won the Olivier for his indoor-and-outdoor performance in Sunset Boulevard, although the strength of the category and the fact that his co-star seems to be attracting all of the Sunset attention means he may lose his spot to homegrown talent Jeremy Jordan.
Best Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly – The Hills of California
Mia Farrow – The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson – Purpose
Sadie Sink – John Proctor is the Villain
Sarah Snook – The Picture of Dorian Gray
Alt: Rachel Zegler – Romeo + Juliet
Despite not being onstage for a good portion of her show, Sadie Sink was determined to be eligible in the lead category, meaning she’s likely to emerge as a nominee from the shallow pool of contenders for Best Actress. And despite her show being long closed, previous nominee Laura Donnelly’s acclaimed performance will likely still be recognized here. However, Emmy-winner Sarah Snook is far and away the frontrunner for her impressive one-woman interpretation of The Picture of Dorian Gray.
Best Actor in a Play
George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola – Oh, Mary!
Jake Gyllenhaal – Othello
Jon Michael Hill – Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim – Yellow Face
Alt: Denzel Washington – Othello
Like Best Actress in a Play, this category is likely all sewn up even before the nominees are announced. Cole Escola has been the talk of the town ever since their play Oh, Mary! (which they also wrote) debuted Off-Broadway over a year ago, and in a deeply satisfying turn of events for those of us who’ve been following their delightfully odd career for years, they’re likely to beat out Hollywood royalty George Clooney (and his awful dye job) and the pair of leading men from Othello, Jake Gyllenhaal and Denzel Washington (who may not even be nominated).
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon – Buena Vista Social Club
Justina Machado – Real Women Have Curves
Jinkx Monsoon – Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Bernadette Peters – Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Joy Woods – Gypsy
Alt: Lesli Margherita – Gypsy
At the last minute, Jinkx Monsoon was determined by the Tony committee to be eligible for Featured Actress, meaning she escaped the already-full wave pool that is the Lead Actress category for this much calmer (but still competitive) race. Natalie Venetia Belcon has been singled out as a highlight of her well-received musical, so expect her to show up here (and possibly win as a representative for her show). The legendary Bernadette Peters will likely pop up here (who could resist her?). Louise from Gypsy is the most nominated role in the history of this category, so there’s little reason to think that Joy Woods will break that streak for her performance (although watch out for Lesli Margherita for her scene-stealing performance as a sassy stripper with a hilariously heavy accent).
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas – Smash
Danny Burstein – Gypsy
Jak Malone – Operation Mincemeat
Thom Sesma – Dead Outlaw
Michael Urie – Once Upon a Mattress
Alt: Christopher Sieber – Death Becomes Her
Like Louise, Gypsy’s Herbie is a role that’s almost always a shoo-in for a nomination (only one of the six men who’ve portrayed the role on Broadway missed a nom: Rex Robbins for the 1974 production starring Angela Lansbury). Tony favorite Danny Burstein will almost certainly show up here for his heartbreaking interpretation. Jak Malone won the Oliver for his multi-character work in Operation Mincemeat, and he’s undoubtedly a frontrunner for the equivalent category at the Tonys. But besides those two supporting men, this category is wide open (as always).
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Jessica Hecht – Eureka Day
Bianca Leigh – Oh, Mary!
Marjan Neshat – English
Mare Winningham – Cult of Love
Kara Young – Purpose
Alt: Tala Ashe – English
Hello again, Kara Young! This category’s reigning champion has been nominated here for the past three seasons in a row, and she’s likely to continue her perfect record this year.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Bill Burr – Glengarry Glen Ross
Kieran Culkin – Glengarry Glen Ross
Glenn Davis – Purpose
Gabriel Ebert – John Proctor is the Villain
Conrad Ricamora – Oh, Mary!
Alt: Francis Jue – Yellow Face
Despite receiving mixed notices, it’ll likely be hard for the Tony nominating committee to resist giving the nod to recent awards magnet Kieran Culkin.
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden – Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer – Dead Outlaw
Robert Hastie – Operation Mincemeat
Jamie Lloyd – Sunset Boulevard
George C. Wolfe – Gypsy
Alt: Christopher Gattelli – Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd is arguably the hottest director of the moment, and his complete reenvisioning of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s mid-masterpiece Sunset Boulevard will likely win him his first Tony. And despite his show being Sunset Boulevard’s strongest competition in both Best Musical Revival and Best Lead Actress, the genius George C. Wolfe isn’t likely to pick up another Tony this year, although he’ll almost certainly be nominated.
Best Direction of a Play
David Cromer – Good Night, and Good Luck
Sam Mendes – The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton – Oh, Mary!
Phylicia Rashad – Purpose
Danya Taymor – John Proctor is the Villain
Alt: Stephen Daldry – Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Danya Taymor won Best Direction of a Musical just last year for The Outsiders, and given that John Proctor is the Villain is one of the most acclaimed plays of the season, she’ll almost certainly show up here. As in so many categories, that new play and Oh, Mary! will battle it out. And despite Stranger Things: The First Shadow receiving mixed reviews, previous winner Stephen Daldry could slip in for wrangling a physical production that even some of the least-impressed critics couldn’t deny is a technical achievement.
Best Original Score
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Real Women Have Curves
Alt: BOOP! The Musical
Because Buena Vista Social Club doesn’t feature an original score, we’ll almost certainly see a nominee in this major category that isn’t present in the Best Musical category. My money is on Real Women Have Curves, with music and lyrics by Benjamin Velez and Mexican singer-songwriter Joy Huerta. (I had originally predicted Smash, but after confusion and a lack of clear consensus as to whether or not the score is even eligible, I’ve taken it out. If it is eligible, that could sneak in here.)
Best Book of a Musical
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Real Women Have Curves
Alt: Buena Vista Social Club
However, there’s a chance that the Best Book nominees match the Best Musical category five-for-five. But I’m predicting that the music-forward Buena Vista Social Club misses out for the compelling, topical story of Real Women Have Curves.
Best Choreography
BOOP! The Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Death Becomes Her
Gypsy
Smash
Alt: Pirates! The Penzance Musical
As is often the case with this category, several previous winners are up for this award, including Christopher Gattelli (Death Becomes Her), Jerry Mitchell (BOOP!), and Justin Peck (Buena Vista Social Club, along with co-choreographer Patricia Delgado). Camille A. Brown is one of the most in-demand contemporary choreographers, and her work on Gypsy (the first Broadway production not to use the original Jerome Robbins choreo) will likely earn her another nomination.
Are you excited for the 2025 Tony Awards? What are you predicting will be nominated tomorrow? Please let us know in the comments section below or on our X account.
