Last year, the Best Actress race at the Oscars seemed all but locked up after Jessie Buckley received career-best raves for Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” at the Telluride Film Festival. She went on to completely sweep the season, resulting in the historically competitive Best Actress category becoming the most locked acting win of the night.
While it might be too early to call the Best Actress race over, Julianne Moore looks to continue this trend with her showstopping performance in Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut.” At the first Telluride screening of the film, the audience paused midway through the film to applaud after a particularly impressive comedic monologue she gave. Though it is difficult to get career-best raves when that career includes performances like hers in “Magnolia” and “Boogie Nights,” many have called this her best performance since her Oscar-winning turn in “Still Alice” or even her work in “Far from Heaven.” It capitalizes on her immense capacity for both heart-wrenching pathos and gonzo comedy, a perfect storm for an actress who should arguably have multiple Oscars by now.
Outside of her tremendous raves, what helped lock up Buckley’s Oscar last year was the strength of her film’s critical reception. “Hamnet” was a top contender for Best Picture and still boasts an impressive 84 on Metacritic to this day. “The Debut” seems positioned for a similar trajectory, as it currently has a 90 on Metacritic and was well-received by Telluride audiences. Reviews mention it being quirkier and more out-there than expected, but after the Oscar voting body embraced films like “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Poor Things,” and “The Substance” with Best Picture nominations and Oscar wins, I would hardly count that as a strike against it. Though there are still two days of programming left, “The Debut” currently feels like the undisputed “champion” of Telluride. With the sheer raves for the film and its central performances — Paul Giamatti also poses a threat in the Supporting Actor race — “The Debut” makes total sense for a Best Picture nomination, at this current state of the race. If you factor in that the film revolves around acting and hails from Jesse Eisenberg, who narrowly missed a Best Picture nomination for his previous film “A Real Pain,” the case for its nomination grows stronger and stronger.
Currently, the Best Actress race has felt in dire need of a frontrunner. The de facto number one was Inde Navarrette, whose breakout role in the surprise summer smash “Obsession” launched her into superstardom. However, she had a number of obstacles to overcome: genre bias, her lack of industry recognition, and her arguable category fraud. As chilling and transformative as she is in “Obsession,” even the film’s biggest supporters would have to admit she would be an unprecedented Oscar winner. Enter Julianne Moore, a previous winner playing an actress in a musical from a man who has already directed one Oscar-winning performance. The critical and audience reception “The Debut” received out of Telluride will need to hold, but when this many people declare the Oscar race to be over after witnessing Moore’s performance, it really begins to sound like it is.
While no path to a complete sweep is easy, Moore’s is quite viable. Critics’ Choice might be the most difficult award for Moore to win, as the CCA ceremony occurs before any other major precursor. Navarrette has been a major critics’ push thus far in this race, much like Amy Madigan was last year for “Weapons.” But as more press are able to screen “The Debut,” the winning hype for Moore could completely dominate the narrative. However, wins like Jacob Elordi’s for “Frankenstein” last year prove that when CCA goes first, their wins are less likely to match up with who the current frontrunner is.
On the other hand, Moore is well-positioned for a win at the Golden Globes. Currently, she has 10 Golden Globe acting nominations, winning her bids for “Game Change” and “Still Alice.” If “Obsession” submits for Comedy/Musical, Navarrette could threaten her there. However, with the fervor of these reviews and the respect the Golden Globes have for Moore, she could easily win over the young ingénue. And if “Obsession” goes Drama, Moore likely cakewalks to a win unless Olivia Wilde gains significantly more traction for “The Invite.”
Then, you have the Actor Awards. Again, Moore is playing a housewife who lands her debut role in a community theatre play. A performance that has a well-renowned thespian play someone discovering the power of acting for the first time feels like prime Actor Awards bait. This awards body, perhaps even more than the Golden Globes, is one that tends to go for big stars in split races — think of Viola Davis’s win for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” or Demi Moore’s win for “The Substance.”
The taste of the BAFTAs is tricky to nail down, but if “The Debut” is as much of a top contender as its reviews indicate, a win there for Moore would make a lot of sense. It is worth noting that even though “A Real Pain” missed their Best Film longlist, it nevertheless won Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay, indicating a level of passion for Eisenberg’s style of filmmaking. This could certainly boost Moore’s chances here. Additionally, if she wins at the other precursors, there is no obvious alternative at BAFTA.
Finally, at the Oscars, the only real question mark for Moore is how big of a contender “The Debut” will be. In recent years, the close Best Actor and Best Actress races have generally gone to the performer in the stronger film, with the only exception being Brendan Fraser in “The Whale” prevailing over Austin Butler in “Elvis.” If she sweeps, the point is moot. But should there be a race, “The Debut” needs to be a strong contender. As of this moment, it appears to be a surefire Best Picture nominee, but the race can easily change. Nonetheless, the sheer amount of raves Moore has received combined with her status as one of the most versatile, dependable actresses of her generation should keep her in the winning conversation no matter what happens otherwise with “The Debut.”
Are you excited to see “The Debut?” How do you think Julianne Moore will factor into this year’s Best Actress race? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
