By Matt Neglia The Golden Globes wrapped up last night and there were certainly surprises and shocks to be had. Some moments landed very well, while others left us bewildered and wondering what the outcome meant for the Oscars. Check below as we breakdown the big takeaways from this year’s Golden Globes.
Make No Mistake, “La La Land” Is The One To Beat
We all knew that “La La Land” would win at least 3 Golden Globe awards. Many predicted 4 wins. Some predicted 5. Few predicted 6. But practically no one predicted 7 wins, thus leading to a complete sweep of its 7 nominations and becoming the most awarded film in Golden Globes history. While I do not expect Ryan Gosling to repeat with a Best Actor win at the Oscars, there is one big stat to take away from all of this and that is “La La Land“ is probably going to win Best Original Screenplay now over “Manchester By The Sea.” Never in the entire history of the Golden Globes has the eventual oscar winner for Best Picture lost screenplay when it also won the screenplay award at the Golden Globes. Basicially what this means is, if you’re picking “La La Land“ to win Best Picture at the Oscars, then you have to also pick it to win Best Original Screenplay. And now with Screenplay wins from the Critics Choice (Albeit, a tie with “Manchester By The Sea“) and the Golden Globes, it would not be unheard of if it defeated the season long frontrunner, “Manchester By The Sea.”
“Moonlight” Is Still In The Hunt
“Moonlight” and “La La Land“ have been neck and neck all season with the critics in the Best Picture and Best Director awards with “Moonlight“ winning now 19 awards for Best Picture to “La La Land’s” 16 and Damien Chazelle winning 19 awards to Barry Jenkins’s 17. “Moonlight“ needed the Golden Globe win last night to stay in the race with “La La Land.“ While everyone will probably be picking “La La Land“ to at least win Director, if “Moonlight“ can win the SAG Ensemble award (Where “La La Land“ is not nominated), and either the PGA or DGA, then this race will be a lot closer than people think. “12 Years A Slave” had a very similiar trajectory (Another Brad Pitt produced film) a few years ago where its only award from the Globes was also Best Picture and did not sweep the season (Losing SAG, DGA and tying PGA) but still managed to win Best Picture in the end.
Best Actress Shakeup
Emma Stone won where she needed to last night in the Best Actress category for a Comedy or Musical. Many predicted Natalie Portman would walk away with the Drama category for Best Actress, but the other critics darling of the season, Isabelle Huppert, managed to edge her out, winning the award and looked humbled in doing so. This is crucial during this period of time when voting for nominations is ocurring and Isabelle Huppert seized the moment. She may very well be heading for her first Oscar nomination for her performance in “Elle.” As far as a win goes however, many presumed this race was Stone vs. Portman. Portman needed to win here to maintain her lead over Emma Stone this season. However, with the love for “Jackie” fading, the love for “La La Land“ rising and being a previous winner of the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and Oscar for “Black Swan” voters will probably be looking elsewhere. Emma Stone now seems poised to win the SAG and eventually the Oscar. Mark it down.
The Other Acting Categories
Many predicted Casey Affleck to win last night for his heartbreaking performance in “Manchester By The Sea“ however the real test will be SAG where Denzel Washington, one of the greatest actors of our time, has never won an award from them. Did anyone else notice how Brie Larson reacted when she gave the Golden Globe to Affleck last night? She is very well aware of the controversy surrounding him and I would not be surprised if many others within the Academy feel the same way towards him and the tide starts to turn at SAG towards a third Oscar win for Denzel Washington. Mahershala Ali is still the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor. That win for Aaron Taylor Johnson last night was shocking and may result in a nomination (Doubt it) but that’s it. I would not worry. And Viola Davis is going to win the Oscar for “Fences.” End of story.
The Rest Of The Categories
“Elle” won Best Foreign Language Film last night as it did at the Critics Choice Awards however, it will be ineligible for the Oscar nomination. This can mean one of two things: either “Toni Erdmann” is weak only against “Elle” or it’s weak overall. The real test will be BAFTA where “Elle” is not eligible. If “Toni Erdmann” does not win there then we may have to start looking for another film to predict to win the Oscar. Over on the Animated Film side, “Zootopia” won at the Golden Globes and barring a snub of epic proportions like “The Lego Movie” suffered from a few years ago, its road to the Oscars looks secure. The same thing goes for Justin Hurwitz’s score for “La La Land“ and the film’s annointed song “City Of Stars.” Some people though Lin Manuel Miranda could possibly win in best original song but it was not meant to be. Now with both Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins, Hurwitz looks to be on his way to winning two Oscars for his work on the best picture frontrunner. And that will just about do it for our big takeaways from this year’s Golden Globes as it pertains to the Oscar race. Do you agree with our thoughts? What were your big takeaways? Is “La La Land“ truly unbeatable and on its way to winning anywhere from 8-11 Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture