Usually, the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series race is incredibly easy to call. For the last three years, there has been a strict formula for our winners. They premiere near the end of the cycle on Netflix to mass critical acclaim, become viewership hits that audiences cannot stop talking about, and then win an obscene amount of awards both at the Emmys and at year-end awards like the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice.
This year, there is no such obvious juggernaut. At least, not yet.Â
“Beef”
Logically, “Beef” season 2 should be our frontrunner in this category. It boasts some of the best critical scores of the contenders, it has four well-liked actors turning in juicy performances, it has decent viewership to the point that it was even able to make Nielsen for one week, and its first season nearly swept the Emmys. In a scattered field such as this one, why would that love not carry over and propel it to a win? Based on the objective data, “Beef” is the clear winner on nearly all fronts. But the Emmys are not something you can predict purely by crunching numbers. Opinions also come into play, and the prevailing opinion about this season is that it is good, but just not at the same level as its first season. In that sense, its pedigree might actually be its downfall, as it inevitably draws somewhat unfavorable comparisons despite being generally agreed upon as a good show. And while you also cannot predict the Emmys purely by sensing something as subjective as “vibes,” there does not seem to be much passion for this season. This may not matter if there is not much passion for any show in contention, of course. But at the moment, it very much feels like a de facto frontrunner. If any show overperforms come Emmy nominations morning, that status can easily be snatched. It does have the best chance of assembling a winning package, however. Its creator Lee Sung Jin can win Writing for “All the Things We’re Never Going to Have” due to the show’s strong critical reception and cutting commentary, and Directing for “Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort” because of how inventively directed that episode in particular is. Meanwhile, any of Carey Mulligan, Oscar Isaac, Cailee Spaeny, and to a lesser extent, Charles Melton could win the Emmy. Mulligan and Isaac are respected veterans turning in fairly flashy performances, and if the show wins, I suspect that they would win together. Spaeny has perhaps the baitiest performance of the four, with the standout episode of the show hinging on her acting. Melton’s role is by far the subtlest, and he also faces strong competition in David Harbour, but if voters are nuts about “Beef,” he could technically pull off a win as well.Â
“DTF St. Louis”
I think “DTF St. Louis” can win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. I also think it can be snubbed from the lineup.Of the shows mentioned, it is the only one that currently has a somewhat safe Emmy win. After the Gotham win, the Television Critics Association nomination, and the sheer conversation around this heartwarming performance, David Harbour feels like the clear favorite in Supporting Actor. Linda Cardellini is also competitive for the Supporting Actress Emmy as the guarded, cunning, but ultimately sympathetic Carol. The arguments for “DTF St. Louis” as a series winner, however, are the complete opposite of those of “Beef.” The metrics for “DTF St. Louis” are far from outstanding: it has a decent critical reception, low viewership, and decent audience reception. What it has in its favor is… generally feeling accessible to industry voters? It is a show that is entirely in its own lane, but its heart is incredibly winning. And unlike any of the other shows on this list, it feels like the kind of show that could grow in support after nominations because it does not seem to have peaked in passion yet. There is something to be said about the fact that it is somewhat consistently showing up on critics’ midyear lists despite other miniseries having stronger critical scores, and that it has shown strength at awards bodies like the Gothams and the TCAs. It could still miss because of how mediocre its metrics on paper appear, but it could also easily get nominations beyond its core trio for actors like Richard Jenkins and Joy Sunday because the love the show has might not be so easily measured by a number. Should it win the series, Harbour, Cardellini, and Writing would likely be its package.
“Half Man”
“Half Man” is much grittier and more grueling than your average Emmy contender, but it has a twisted but beating heart that has earned it perhaps the most passionate response out of any of the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series contenders. Your average “Half Man” viewer is likely coming away feeling much stronger about the show than your average “Beef” or “The Beast in Me” viewer. But before I dive into why this show could win series, I must first address the fact that your average “Half Man” viewer is not your average Television Academy voter. If the violent opening scene with incestuous undertones did not turn you off the show, very little of the content in the show would. It is intentionally difficult to stomach, and that is exactly what makes it so excellent. I am skeptical that your average Emmy voter will be able to get through a show as largely unrewarding as this one, but it does have the advantage of pedigree. The show hails from Richard Gadd of “Baby Reindeer” fame, and while that show is largely preferred to this one, the comparisons between the two are not quite as inherent as the comparisons between the two “Beef” seasons. Despite the isolating subject matter, the people who love “Half Man” are obsessed with it. It just remains to be seen if the Academy falls into that group. Neither the critical reception nor the viewership is exceptional, but it really just remains to be seen if voters are fans or if they are as cold to the show as some critics were. It could theoretically pick up wins for Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Directing, but I’d remain skeptical of a Writing win since that is the show’s most criticized element (even if it is done by an Emmy winner). In fact, the show can even miss a Writing nomination, considering how often the Writing category aligns with critics. Currently, I think there’s enough passion for a “Half Man” nomination, but the win is a bit hard to justify until we get solid proof that voters are watching and loving the show. If any actors outside of Jamie Bell or Richard Gadd get nominated, I’ll switch to “Half Man.”
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette”
Out of every show on this list, “Love Story” is the most traditionally baity. It is a Ryan Murphy project about iconic figures’ inner lives with strong audience viewership and reception. It has techs galore to gush over, and it has a lot of buzz for its lead actress, Sarah Pidgeon. My main issue with this as a series winner is that I have a hard time seeing it getting Writing or Directing nominations. Not only were multiple episodes submitted for each category, but the show’s critical reception is the worst out of Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series contenders not named “Black Rabbit.” While it was not quite as critically reviled, I do think “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” will suffer the same fate as “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” in that it will do well with actors but ultimately fail to be in win contention after missing a Writing nomination. Should it manage to receive nominations in Writing, Directing, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, and Lead Actress, I would absolutely switch to it and have it win Lead Actress, Directing, and Supporting Actress for one of Naomi Watts, Grace Gummer, or Constance Zimmer. I currently remain confident that it misses writing at the very least.
“The Beast in Me”
Do I think “The Beast in Me” will win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? No. It was not able to win a single guild, not even after “Adolescence” was rendered ineligible at the WGA and DGA. But it is the most-watched show on this list, stars two Emmy winners, and boasts decent critical reception. The passion for this show feels like it died down about six months ago, but it is the only show on this list that has been “proven” against actual contenders. If you want to make an argument for “The Beast in Me,” it is that it faced tougher competition at the winter precursors than it will at this year’s Emmys. I would not agree with this argument, but it is certainly one that can be made. Its package is the most difficult one to make, but if it is strong enough to win Outstanding Limited Series, Matthew Rhys absolutely comes along for the ride.
“Lord of the Flies”
“Adolescence” co-creator Jack Thorne has followed up the infamous sweeper with a critically acclaimed adaptation of a literary classic: “Lord of the Flies.” Oddly, this is a tough show to read in terms of its Emmy prospects. On the one hand, it boasts some of the cycle’s strongest critical scores, had a brief stint on Netflix’s top 10, and even earned a handful of Gotham nominations, including “Beef” and “DTF St. Louis.” But on the other hand, its buzz seems to have completely dissipated since its release. This could be due to the show’s lukewarm audience reception, as it has a mere 6.6 out of 10 on IMDb (the worst of any show on this list). The show can easily snag writing and directing nominations thanks to its critical love, but it’s telling that it feels so isolating to viewers. However, there is always the chance that the Emmy voters who showered Jack Thorne’s previous miniseries with wins are more aligned with critics than with audiences. And if that is the case, “Lord of the Flies” suddenly becomes a lot more viable for a win, as it clearly has the strongest acclaim of the bunch. Personally, I am not even predicting it for a nomination at the moment. But if the show manages to get one of its child actors in — in particular, the Gotham-nominated David McKenna — it could win Writing and Directing and sail to victory. It has the advantage of hailing from source material that everyone is at least familiar with and from a creator that these voters gave multiple Emmys to last year.
What do you consider to be the frontrunner for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account and check out our latest Emmy nomination predictions here.
