Saturday, February 15, 2025

The Top Ten Toughest 2024 Emmy Races To Call

With Wednesday’s announcement of the 2024 Primetime Emmy nominations has come social media’s annual cries of joy and outage at the surprises and perceived snubs at this year’s nominees. Now that the dust from the announcements has settled a little bit, one thing is clear. “Shōgun,” “The Bear,” and “Baby Reindeer are all likely to be having a very good night when the Emmys are given out on September 15th. The nomination haul for each series — “Shōgun (25), “The Bear (23, a new record for a comedy series), and “Baby Reindeer (11) — shows considerable strength in the craft categories, which is often a key component in winning a series Emmy.

What’s equally evident, however, is that there are far more races whose outcome isn’t as clear. Many high-profile categories come down to a head-to-head match between the top two contenders in several top series and acting categories. These are the races that give Emmy prognosticators heartburn and Emmy viewers heart palpitations as the envelope containing the winner’s name is being opened.

Emmy fans will continue to debate just who will win all the way to the fall, but here’s your chance to jump ahead of the pack. I’ve selected these ten hotly contested categories to put on your Emmy radar, along with a few comments on where their awards’ strengths (or weaknesses) may lie. Happy streaming!

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES — Jean Smart (“Hacks”) vs. Ayo Edibiri (“The Bear”)
When “The Bear made its Emmy splash last season, this was the only acting category it did not win because, simply, no actor was eligible. That’s all changed this year as Ayo Edibiri, who snagged the Supporting Actress Emmy last season, deservedly moves up to Lead, as her Sydney was, in many ways, the driver of “The Bear’s second season. Edibiri, however, will have to take on two former winners in this category- reigning champion Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) and Jean Smart (“Hacks“), who won this category in the previous two years. With all due respect to Brunson, who did some fine work on “Abbott Elementary this season, the race looks to be a showdown between Smart and Edibiri, two skilled actresses who work in styles that couldn’t be more different than one another. Get your popcorn ready. This one should be fun.

EMMY OUTLOOK: This category is clearly one of the marquee races of the evening. At this point, Smart, I think, has the edge because, while each woman is surrounded by a top acting ensemble, Smart’s Deborah Vance is the nucleus around which the world of “Hacks revolves, whereas Edibiri’s Sydney is very much an ensemble player. Still, if “The Bear has the kind of evening that many expect and racks up win after win, Edibiri could easily be carried along with the wave toward another Emmy victory.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE – Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) vs. Richard Gaad (“Baby Reindeer”)
This race is one of several this year to pit an established star against a relative newcomer, and the result is anything but certain. Scottish writer, actor, and comedian Richard Gaad adapted his one-man stage show about his experiences with being stalked into the Netflix limited series “Baby Reindeer, which soon became a worldwide sensation, propelling his acclaimed performance to the top of the Emmy race. Gaad, however, will be facing the formidable work of Irish film and stage actor Andrew Scott, whose revisionist take on the character of Tom Ripley engendered strong acclaim from critics and audiences alike. Based on its strong nomination haul, “Baby Reindeer may be the series to beat, but will that love also carry over to its star?

EMMY OUTLOOK: A closer look at the race reveals two potential scenarios  — that “Baby Reindeer is so strong that it sweeps Gaad to victory OR that Academy voters choose to split the difference, rewarding Gaad with the writing Emmy and giving Scott the acting prize. I’m leaning toward the latter theory, as the result plays to both men’s strengths — Gaad’s script is the backbone of “Baby Reindeer while Scott is a hopelessly charming and effective campaigner, as anyone who witnessed his “All of Us Strangers“/”Ripley press tours can attest.

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION SERIES – “RuPaul’s Drag Race vs. “The Traitors”
For Emmy prognosticators, the race for Outstanding Reality Competition Series is usually quite the snore. Once Academy voters have found a series to their liking, they tend to vote for that winner year after year until the next new thing comes along. “RuPaul’s Drag Race is currently enjoying its Winners Era, dominating this category for 5 of the last 6 years, with a seventh win for Season 16 a distinct possibility. But that next new thing may have come along this year with “The Traitors,Peacock’s critically acclaimed murder-mystery competition that has snatched early precursor wins that could signal that, for the first time in years, we may have a serious race on our hands in this category.

EMMY OUTLOOK: “The Traitors has swept the major precursors to date, already scoring key wins at BAFTA (for the UK version) and from TCA. But don’t count out “RuPaul’s Drag Race just yet. Season 16 has been a particularly good one from the long-running franchise, culminating in its first Asian winner, Taiwan’s Nymphia Wind. Peacock quickly countered with a full-scale charm offensive among Emmy voters led by “The Traitors host Alan Cumming. It’s war (Emmy-style), and though the race looks like it will come down to the wire, my hunch is that “The Traitors has the stuff to go all the way for the upset win.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES – Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) vs. Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”)
Though Ayo Edibiri (“The Bear“) is the defending champion here, this year she has chosen to complete in Lead, clearing the way for her “The Bear co-star Liza ColónZayas to keep that Emmy within “The Bear family. I suspect, however, that the real race is likely to be elsewhere, with Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks“) taking on Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”). The fact that the legendary Streep would take a supporting role in a comedy series at this point in her career is remarkable enough, but to embrace a character who is thought to be “the worst actress on Broadway displays a winning ability to laugh at herself. For Einbinder, her character Ava’s struggle to get the yearned-for respect from her boss, Deborah Vance, culminates in the series acclaimed season finale, considered by many to be one of the best episodes of any show this season. This one could go either way.

EMMY OUTLOOK: In a category where legends rarely appear, just the presence of Streep may compel voters to take heed. (The fact that she does such comically inventive work in the role should be the more compelling argument.) My guess, however, is that Einbinder’s powerful story arc — and the skill with which she brings it to life — will wind up ruling the night. 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE – Robert Downey Jr. (“The Sympathizer”) vs. Jonathan Bailey (“Fellow Travelers”)
This category has collected some of the finest character actors working today, but the race is likely to come down to these two actors, each of whom has created a wildly different character. Or, in the case of Robert Downey Jr., characters (plural) as he embodies four different sides of American patriarchy — a CIA operative, a professor, a Congressman, and a filmmaker — in Park Chan-wook’s blackly comic miniseries. Downey here is big, he’s wild, he’s….Downey. By contrast, Jonathan Bailey’s performance as a closeted administrative aide to Sen. Joseph McCarthy in “Fellow Travelers is quietly devastating in a portrait of a tragic romance during the “lavender scare. 

EMMY OUTLOOK: With the momentum of a career renaissance and the career-high of his Oscar win for “Oppenheimer, Downey came into nomination morning as the presumed favorite. But his was the only nomination garnered by the Park Chan-wook limited series, a stat that signals a weakness in Academy support. Bailey’s Fellow Travelersdidn’t fare much better, with three nominations to its name. Still, they were in the additional key categories of Lead Actor and Writing, which can only bolster Bailey. The well-liked Downey could still pull it off, but with a better nomination tally, Bailey’s chances for an Emmy upset went way up.

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE – “Mr. Monk’s Last Case vs. “Red, White & Royal Blue”
Talk about an apples-and-oranges collection of nominees! For Outstanding Television Movie, we have an Asian-American sisterly comedy, the female team behind securing a landmark interview, a movie-length episode of a beloved sitcom, a gay romcom with geopolitical consequences, and an epic look at the invention of the Pop Tart. Seriously, how do you choose? 

EMMY OUTLOOK: In trying to predict a winner in this category, Emmy experts usually check what other nominations each movie received, but for the films in this year’s lineup, this nod was the only nomination that each has received. No help there. So, let’s narrow it down to the process of elimination. “Unfrosted was met with mixed reviews at best, “Quiz Lady’s antic-comedy tone may be seen as too light by voters, and while Scoop’s reviews were in the main quite good, the critical response was largely more respectful than passionate. “Mr. Monk’s Last Case will likely evoke memories of the much-loved series, but Tony Shalhoub’s failure to get an expected nomination bodes ill for the film, which leaves “Red, White & Royal Blue,” which, though a romcom, flies its pride flag boldly, a small gesture but one that may be enough to carry the movie across the finish line.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE – Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”) vs. Jodie Foster (“True Detective: North Country”)
We’ve previously discussed races where the nominees are so vastly different it’s difficult to pick a front-runner. However, we have a case where the front runners are so similar in their background that it’s even harder, with two Oscar-winning actors going head-to-head and playing strong, determined women. For executive producer/star Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry was a passion project to bring to the screen the story of a female scientist in the 1960s whose career path was blocked solely because of her gender, and that passion is evident throughout her acclaimed performance. Foster brought a similar passion to her work as an Alaskan police chief who is determined to find just who killed eight scientists in her snowbound town. As both actors deliver top-notch performances here, this one may be a coin flip.

EMMY OUTLOOK: Recency bias may help Foster here, as many voters may have seen “Lessons in Chemistry way back in the fall, and the winter debut of “True Detective may be fresher in their minds. However, she may also suffer from genre bias as, even with 19 nominations, a down-and-dirty detective story may not be as prestigious as one based on such a New York Times best-seller as “Lessons in Chemistry. At this moment, I’d say Larson by a hair. But it’s very close.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES – Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) vs. Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”)
While the Lead Actor field may be thinner than in years past — the days of such iconic male characters as Don Draper and Walter White seem to be long gone — the Academy has nominated five extremely worthy performances that bring a freshness to the category. For example, Gary Oldman, who had only a single Emmy nomination to his name (Guest Actor for an episode of “Friends”), does exceptional work as a rude but brilliant veteran spy in “Slow Horses.” At the same time, Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada may be well known to international audiences, but he is a revelation to many American audiences for his multi-layered work in “Shōgun.”

EMMY OUTLOOK: Both actors received good news on nomination morning beyond their own names being read. Oldman, who was fighting to become the first-ever nominee from his show, learned that “Slow Horses received eight other Emmy nods, an encouraging signal that his series has finally found industry support. With Sanada’s Shōgun co-lead Cosmo Jarvis failing to make the cut, the veteran Sanada is now the sole Lead Actor from his series, which can only help his chances. While I would love to see Gary Oldman at long last win an Emmy, I expect that the “Shōgun bandwagon will help lead Sanada to a much-deserved win for his towering work here.

OUTSTANDING DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES  — “The Jinx – Part Two vs. “Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV”
The Documentary Series Race is not usually one to attract much attention, but with two headline-generating series in the mix, anticipation has grown as to which one will wind up on top. As expected, both “The Jinx – Part Two, the continuation of the Emmy-winning story of convicted murderer Robert Durst, and “Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV, the exposé uncovering the abuse of underage actors in Nickelodeon TV series, both received series nominations, enjoining the battle that will only be resolved at the prime time ceremony this fall.

EMMY OUTLOOK: Both series received additional nominations — “The Jinx – Part Two earned nods for its writing and editing, and “Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV also received an editing nom — indicating below-the-line support. With both so evenly matched, this one is shaping up to be a tough call, but I might give the edge to “Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV, thanks to the shocking details of its charges affecting a group of young actors familiar to Academy voters as they were growing up themselves.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES – Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”) vs. Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”)
Traditionally, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series is one of Emmy’s most high-profile categories, so it seems fitting that the likely front runners in the race come from shows that have solid support both above and below the line. Jennifer Aniston received her eighth Emmy nomination (and her second for “The Morning Show“) for her performance in the Apple TV+ series as dynamic morning news anchor Alex Levy. By contrast, in “Shōgun,Anna Sawai’s quiet translator, Toda Mariko, may seem unassuming on the surface at first, but as her professional and emotional lives begin to intertwine, she reveals a backbone of steel as powerful as any shōgun warrior. It’s a fascinating contrast between acting styles that should produce one of the more suspenseful moments of Emmy night.

EMMY OUTLOOK:Shōgun was widely expected to do well on Emmy nomination morning, and it did not disappoint, leading all series with 25 nominations. But “The Morning Show wildly overperformed, earning an unexpected 16 nods, which suggests that the series has finally earned widespread support above and below the line. It may, however, be a double-edged sword for Aniston’s Emmy chances — the nomination haul suggests that voters are watching the show, but her co-star Reese Witherspoon also received a Lead Actress nod, raising the possibility of a split “The Morning Show vote. Sawai is the sole “Shōgun nominee in this category, and her slow-build performance throughout the series leads to the shocking climax of the series’ ninth episode and remains one of the most memorable moments of this television year. In this race, I’ll give the edge to Sawai.

Which races emerged as the toughest to call from this year’s Emmy nominations? What did you think of the nominations overall? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account and check out our latest Emmy nomination predictions here.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter!

Tom O'Brien
Tom O'Brienhttps://nextbestpicture.com
Palm Springs Blogger and Awards lover. Editor at Exact Change & contributing writer for Gold Derby.

Related Articles

Stay Connected

101,150FollowersFollow
101,150FollowersFollow
9,315FansLike
9,315FansLike
4,686FollowersFollow
4,686FollowersFollow

Latest Reviews