Much like the Academy, the BAFTAs have recently begun releasing lists preceding their nominations of the films still in the running for awards consideration. Essentially, these are nominations for nominations. However, unlike the Academy, the BAFTAs publish lists for every single awards category, meaning that predicting their actual nominations gets comparatively easier. It’s also a great way to get a temperature check on contenders’ general awards season buzz and eventual Oscar chances. Notably, the BAFTAs share actual voter overlap with the Academy Awards, meaning that surprise misses and inclusions should be taken seriously. That being said, let’s discuss some of the biggest takeaways from the BAFTA longlist announcements.
Party Time for “Emilia Pérez”
Despite the internet’s best efforts, “Emilia Pérez” continues to dominate the precursor period of awards season. It received ten Golden Globe nominations – the second most of all time behind Robert Altman’s “Nashville“ – and topped the BAFTA longlist count with fifteen mentions. It made it into virtually every category possible, missing only Best Production Design and Special Visual Effects, both of which were extreme long shots as is. And not only did Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña make it into Supporting Actress, but so did fellow Cannes Best Actress winner Adriana Paz. Any doubts as to the film’s Oscar chances should be quickly dispelled.
“Conclave“ is right behind “Emilia Pérez“ with fourteen mentions, with inclusions in less expected categories like Sound, Costume Design, and Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci) helping to elevate its total. It wouldn’t be surprising if these two films and “The Brutalist“ (which garnered eleven longlist mentions) topped the Oscar nomination counts.
Not Quite So Popular
However, another potential nomination leader didn’t perform reasonably as well as may have been expected. “Wicked“ is currently riding a wave of buzz and box office success, but the musical managed to snag “only“ ten mentions from the BAFTAs. It made it into all the expected categories (both female performance categories, Film, and most craft awards). Still, a few more mentions in less assured spots like Best Film Editing, Original Score, Supporting Actor for hometown hero Jonathan Bailey, and Director would’ve been better indications of the film’s overall love. There’s a good chance it’ll miss actual BAFTA nominations in some of its longlist categories, like Best Adapted Screenplay, Make-Up and Hair, and Special Visual Effects. If this happens (much like its underperformance with the Golden Globe nominations), its chances as a serious Oscar contender will be severely diminished.
Little Clarity for Lower Tier Best Picture Contenders
Most awards predictors agree that the race for Oscar’s ten Best Picture slots is realistically down to eleven films. Unfortunately, BAFTA was no real help in showing which of the lower tier contenders have greater support, not including “Nickel Boys,” “A Real Pain,“ or “Sing Sing“ in its Best Film lineup. In their place, BAFTA went with “The Apprentice” and “Kneecap,“ with the remaining eight films all considered fairly certain for Best Picture nominations from the Academy. Outside of Best Film, “A Real Pain“ and “Sing Sing“ still managed mentions in the longlists for the categories where it’s considered safest: Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay for “A Real Pain“ and Leading Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay for “Sing Sing.” “Nickel Boys“ received a solo mention in Adapted Screenplay, which it will almost certainly replicate on Oscar nomination morning.Â
Stan Wars
Much like its unsavory subject, “The Apprentice“ continues to be underestimated by experts as a serious contender. After scoring acting nods for Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong at the Golden Globes, the film received a surprising six mentions from the BAFTAs. Stan and Strong made it in, and the film itself practically maxed out its realistic longlist possibilities, including Best Film, Original Screenplay, and Make-Up and Hair. European awards bodies and festivals are less hesitant to engage with prickly American political subjects than domestic groups, so this may just be an anomaly. Still, Stan and the make-up/hairstyling should be considered solidly in the running for Oscar attention. Curiously, Stan’s other major film, “A Different Man,“ was completely absent from the longlists, even in seemingly obvious categories like Make-Up and Hair. Although that’s bad news for that film, it may end up helping Stan to have awards attention more specifically focused on “The Apprentice“ so as not to split potential votes for him.
Stars – Both Shooting And Falling
Even with ten longlist slots per acting category, several notable performers were still passed over by BAFTA. The most glaringly obvious omission is Angelina Jolie for her acclaimed work in “Maria.“ The film itself was completely blankedby the BAFTAs. Jolie is still a genuine contender for an Oscar nomination, whose voting body may look more favorably on the performance of such a well-loved homegrown talent as Jolie. But her BAFTA snub indicates a lack of overall love for the film, especially considering that much less buzzy performances managed to make it in, such as Marisa Abela for “Back to Black“ and Saoirse Ronan for “The Outrun.“ In particular, Kate Winslet’s mention of her Golden Globe-nominated performance in “Lee“ should be considered a strong sign of support for that underseen film (along with the film’s three other mentions in Outstanding British Film, Director, and Adapted Screenplay). If she can manage a SAG nomination, her chances for an Oscar nod may be all but guaranteed.
Another significant snub in Best Leading Actress is Fernanda Torres for her well-loved work in “I’m Still Here.“Ironically, most consider her and Jolie to be the frontrunners for this weekend’s Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama. Still, hers may be the type of performance that still appeals to international Academy voters, although her BAFTA miss puts a dent in that theory.
In Best Leading Actor, the only missing name that could be considered anything close to surprising is Jesse Eisenberg for “A Real Pain“ (although his original screenplay did make it in). Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist“), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing“), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave“), and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown“) are considered practically locked for Oscar nominations, with that final fifth slot remaining a contentious mystery. Daniel Craig (“Queer“), Hugh Grant (“Heretic“), and Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice“) are the most likely possible nominees, and Eisenberg’s absence here can only help their chances. However, Craig is the only BAFTA mention for “Queer,“ while “Heretic“ also made it into Original Screenplay.Â
Support For The Supporters
Supporting Actress is missing two performers who were also snubbed by the Golden Globes: Danielle Deadwyler for “The Piano Lesson“ and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for “Nickel Boys.“ In addition, the former film was completely passedover by BAFTAs, while “Nickel Boys“ received only a solitary mention in Adapted Screenplay. The BAFTAs have an unsavory history when it comes to recognizing Black performers (most conspicuously, Denzel Washington has never received a nomination, although there is a chance that may change this year with his longlist inclusion for “Gladiator II“), meaning that Deadwyler and Ellis-Taylor’s exclusions are unfortunately not too surprising. Otherwise, all the familiar precursor names are here – Ariana Grande (“Wicked“), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist“), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave“), and Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”), plus Gomez and Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez“).
In the male supporting category, there are no real surprises in terms of either inclusions or shocking omissions. All of the major contenders are present, with Tucci and Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”) slipping in with performances that are unlikely to receive actual nominations but indicate general affection for their respective films.
Hard Morning For “Hard Truths”
When its leading lady, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, was shockingly ignored by the Golden Globe nominators, it was generally thought that BAFTAs would swoop in to raise support for the overall chances for “Hard Truths.“ After all, it’s a Mike Leigh film, and in the past, the BAFTAs have shown great affection for the British writer-director’s films. He’s received a whopping thirteen BAFTA nominations across his acclaimed career, including three wins. Bizarrely, “Hard Truths“ snagged only three longlist mentions – Outstanding British Film, Leading Actress (Jean-Baptiste), and a less-expected Supporting Actress inclusion for Michele Austin. Leigh is missing in both Director and Original Screenplay, where he was considered a strong contender for the actual nomination. Unfortunately, this likely means bad news for Jean-Baptiste, who now needs a SAG nomination to realistically still be considered an Oscar contender.
Gender Equality In Best Director
More than most award bodies, the BAFTAs have made a concerted effort to ensure that male and female directors are equally considered for awards attention. As mandated, the ten directors on the longlist consist of five men and five women (strangely, Halina Reijn isn’t one of them for her acclaimed film “Babygirl“). This is most fortunate for Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance“) and Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light“), who are undoubtedly the two female directors most likely to receive Academy Award nominations. Fargeat, in particular, is helped by the overall love for her film (the BAFTAs included it in eleven longlist categories) and should be considered a tentative but realistic bet for an Oscar nod.
[Insert Sports Metaphor] For “Challengers”
Perhaps the most surprising below-the-line exclusion is the baffling absence of “Challengers“ in Best Original Score, where it was overtaken by less-expected contenders like “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice“ and “The Outrun.“ Composing duo Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are familiar names to BAFTA voters, who’ve given them three previous nominations and a win for “Soul.” They’re still very much in the running for the Oscars, but this stumble is unexpected and is sure to have shaken up Team “Challengers.“ The film still managed mentions in Best Original Screenplay and Editing, but one or two more inclusions (perhaps something for English actor Josh O’Connor?) would’ve been even more helpful when it comes toindicating the film’s overall awards chances.
Craft Category Contenders Crush The Competition
Although they may not have made much of a splash in the headline categories, a handful of films received significant attention in the crafts races. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Blitz,” “Civil War,” “Gladiator II,“ and “Nosferatu“ all snagged at least five tech mentions (“Blitz,” “Civil War,“ and “Gladiator II“ were also included among the 15 films in the Outstanding British Film list). This shows strong support for these films from the general voting body, which is exactly how films continue to move forward in the Oscar race.
What were your biggest surprises from this morning’s BAFTA longlists announcement? What do you think will ultimately receive BAFTA nominations? Did any of this change your current Oscar predictions? You can see our latest Oscar predictions here and please let us know in the comments section below or on our X account and check out our latest Oscar predictions here.
