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Sunday, February 25, 2024

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My 2021 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

By Amanda Spears 

With Golden Globe voting currently underway, it is time for me to reveal my predictions for the upcoming Golden Globe nominations, which will be announced on February 3rd (You can listen to my television predictions in full on our latest episode of the Next Best Series Podcast here). This year, the story is all about Netflix, Netflix and Netflix. After the industry’s COVID shutdown, it wouldn’t be surprising to find the streamer dominating on both the film and television fronts. But the Golden Globes love to spread the wealth around, which could lead to some interesting snubs and surprises. ​

It’s important to keep in mind that the Hollywood Foreign Press awards a film or series for their main prize, plus one. Meaning, if your film or television series is going to be crowned the winner, typically a performer, or on the film side, the director or writer will also win. For example, on the film side, the Drama winner “1917” also won Best Director (Sam Mendes), and the Comedy winner “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” also picked up Best Supporting Actor (Brad Pitt) and Best Screenplay. On the television side, the Drama winner “Succession” picked up Drama TV Actor (Brian Cox), the Comedy winner “Fleabag” also took Comedy TV Actress (Phoebe Waller-Bridge) and the Limited Series/TV Movie winner “Chernobyl” took home TV Supporting Actor (Stellan Skarsgård). 

Allow me to share two more pearls of wisdom when making your Globe predictions. The HFPA loves celebrities and we’ll often see stars show up in categories where we’re least expecting it. Also, when making your TV predictions, keep in mind that the Globes love to nominate the hot new show. 

Best Picture – Drama
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Most likely to surprise:Da 5 Bloods,” “The Father” or “Promising Young Woman
Thoughts: “One Night in Miami” and “Nomadland” benefit from not airing on Netflix. The HFPA loves to spread the wealth and having one streamer dominate the most prestigious category might not be their cup of tea. 

Best Actor – Drama
Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – “The Father
Delroy Lindo – “Da 5 Bloods” 
Steven Yeun – “Minari

Most likely to surprise: Tom Hanks – “News Of The World,” Gary Oldman – “Mank,” Tahar Rahim – “The Mauritanian” or John David Washington – “Malcolm and Marie
Thoughts: The Globes love to predict the Oscars and with the race seemingly between Hopkins and Boseman, a win here is critical. Ahmed could surprise us with a win as he carries his film completely on his shoulders. Lookout for past winners Hanks and Oldman to possibly sneak in and bump out Yeun. The Globes do love their stars after all.

Best Actress – Drama
Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby – “Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren – “
The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand – “Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman

Most likely to surprise: Amy Adams – “Hillbilly Elegy,” Kate Winslet – “Ammonite” or Zendaya – “Malcolm and Marie” 
Thoughts: The Globes love seasoned veterans and Loren should see her name amongst the nominees this year. Both Davis and McDormand have had so-so relationships with the HFPA in the past and that could make this category more competitive than we once thought. 

Best Comedy/Musical
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
“Eurovision Song Contest”
On the Rocks
The Prom

Most likely to surprise: Emma.,” “French Exit” or Palm Springs
ThoughtsThe Globes love musicals and a musical that’s also a comedy is a no brainer for them to go for in this category, especially one with this much star-power. It also doesn’t hurt that at least on the television side, they’ve had a love affair with Ryan Murphy productions. The same rules apply to “Eurovision Song Contest” and “Hamilton.”

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” 
Pete Davidson – “The King of Staten Island
Will Ferrell – “Eurovision Song Contest” 
Lin-Manuel Miranda – “Hamilton
Andy Samberg – “Palm Springs

Most likely to surprise: James Corden – “The Prom,” Leslie Odom Jr. – “Hamilton” or Matthew McConaughey – “The Gentleman
Thoughts: This category is going to be an interesting one as none of the top competitors are expected to receive an Oscar nomination. Cohen, who’s hoping this year to be double nominated, is also hoping that Odom Jr. is not. Depending on how much love they have for “The Prom,” Corden could surprise with a nomination. 

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Rashida Jones – “On the Rocks
Michelle Pfeifer – “French Exit
Meryl Streep – “
The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy – “Emma.

Most likely to surprise: Rachel McAdams – “Eurovision Song Contest,” Cristin Milioti – “Palm Springs” or Jo Ellen Pellman – “The Prom
Thoughts: Streep is the only contender with a chance of receiving an Oscar nomination. Keeping in mind that the Globes have had a long love affair with Streep, she’ll easily win her 10th Golden Globe award. The supporting categories do not have separate categories for Drama and Comedies, which makes these a more accurate bell weather as to how the Oscar race may go.

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Bill Murray – “On the Rocks
​Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night in Miami
Paul Raci – “Sound of Metal” 

Most likely to surprise: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Kingsley Ben-Adir – “One Night in Miami,” Chadwick Boseman – “Da 5 Bloods,” Daveed Diggs – “Hamilton,” Mark Rylance – “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” or David Strathairn – “Nomadland
Thoughts: How much does the HFPA really love “The Trial of the Chicago 7?” Multiple supporting nominations may cost them a win in the category but it could make them the frontrunner to win Best Picture Drama.  Something to watch out for once nominations are announced.

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn – “Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy
​Olivia Colman – “The Father

Amanda Seyfried – “Mank
Youn Yuh-Jung – “Minari

Most likely to surprise: Renee Elise Goldsberry – “Hamilton,” Jodie Foster – “The Mauritanian,” Nicole Kidman – “The Prom” or Saoirse Ronan – “Ammonite
Thoughts: If I could choose a sixth nominee I would select Jodie Foster, who is a past winner and lifetime achievement winner from the HFPA. “The Mauritanian” could also surprise overall with the Globes due to its international true-story but how many voters had a chance to see it?

Best Director
David Fincher – “Mank
Regina King – “One Night in Miami
Spike Lee – “Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao – “Nomadland

Most likely to surprise: Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman,” Lee Isaac Chung – “Minari,” Ryan Murphy – “The Prom” or Florian Zeller – “The Father
Thoughts: The HFPA has faced a lot of criticism for its recent exclusion of women directors. They may decide to make up for the slight this year. While no one expects Ryan Murphy to be a part of the Oscar race, the Globes love his productions and may shock us by singling him out for a nomination. 

Best Screenplay
The Father
Promising Young Woman
​”The Trial of the Chicago 7

Most likely to surprise: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Minari,” One Night in Miami” or “On the Rocks
Thoughts: This is by far the most difficult category to predict since it combines both Original and Adapted. It’s not uncommon for a future Oscar winner to be snubbed.

Best Animated Film
Over The Moon
“Trolls World Tour”

Most likely to surprise: The Croods: A New Age,” “Earwig and the Witch” or The Willoughbys
Thoughts: A weak year for the category overall. Expect to see the biggest films of the year included here hence the “Trolls World Tour” nomination.

Best Foreign Language Film
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden

Most likely to surprise:Bacurau,” “Dear Comrades!” or A Sun
Thoughts: Anything can happen here.

Best Original Score
Hillbilly Elegy
The Midnight Sky
News Of The World

Most likely to surprise: “Da 5 Bloods,” “Minari” or “Tenet
Thoughts: Ditto the above. Anything can happen here.

Best Original Song
“Husavik (My Hometown)” – “Eurovision Song Contest”
“Io Si (Seen)” – “
The Life Ahead
“Only the Young” – “Miss Americana

“Speak Now” – “One Night in Miami
“Rocket to the Moon” – “Over The Moon

Most likely to surprise: “Turntables” – “All In: The Fight For Democracy” or “Wear Your Crown” – “The Prom
Thoughts: Always go with frontrunners, big stars and films you think they will like.

Best TV Drama Series
“The Crown”
“Lovecraft Country” 
“Perry Mason”

Most likely to surprise: “Better Call Saul,” “Killing Eve,” “The Mandalorian” or “Ratched”
Thoughts: For the television Drama races, COVID-19 has given the HFPA a rare opportunity to look back at series and performers they haven’t previously awarded. But it’s always best when making your predictions to start with new buzzed about shows. 

Best TV Drama Actor
Jason Bateman – “Ozark”
Josh O’Connor – “The Crown”
Al Pacino – “Hunters”
Regé-Jean Page – “Bridgerton”

Matthew Rhys – “Perry Mason”

Most likely to surprise: Jonathan Majors – “Lovecraft Country,” Pedro Pascal – “The Mandalorian,” or Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul”

Best TV Drama Actress
Olivia Colman – “The Crown”
Laura Linney – “Ozark”
Jurnee Smollett – “Lovecraft Country”
Emma Corrin – “The Crown”
Phoebe Dynevor – “Bridgerton”

Most likely to surprise: Jodie Comer – “Killing Eve,” Claire Danes – “Homeland,” Sandra Oh – “Killing Eve” or Sarah Paulson – “Ratched”

Best TV Comedy Series
“The Flight Attendant”
“The Great”
“Schitt’s Creek”
“Ted Lasso”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

Most likely to surprise: “Dead to Me,” “Insecure,” “Ramy,” or “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”
Thoughts: “Schitt’s Creek” is coming into the Globes after making history, sweeping the top seven Emmy categorie, which is a first for either a drama or comedy. But the Globes may not want to rubber stamp the Canadian laugher with another five trophies. This gives a lot of new series an opportunity to make their mark.

Best TV Comedy Actor
Matt Berry – “What We Do in the Shadows”
Nicholas Hoult – “The Great”
Eugene Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Jason Sudekis – “Ted Lasso”

Ramy Youssef – “Ramy”

Most likely to surprise: Don Cheadle – “Black Monday,” Lamorne Morris – “Woke” or Ben Platt – “The Politician”

Best TV Comedy Actress
Christina Applegate – “Dead to Me” 
Kaley Cuoco – “The Flight Attendant”
Elle Fanning – “The Great”
Catherine O’Hara – “Schitt’s Creek”
Jane Levy – “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”

Most likely to surprise: Linda Cardellini – “Dead to Me,” Lily Collins – “Emily in Paris” or Natasia Demetriou – “What We Do in the Shadows”

Best Limited Series/TV Movie
“The Good Lord Bird”
“Mrs. America”

“The Queen’s Gambit”
“The Undoing”

Most likely to surprise: “Bad Education,” “Fargo,” “Little Fires Everywhere,” “Normal People” or “Small Axe”
Thoughts: No series has proven hotter than “The Queen’s Gambit,” which will use the Globes as their coming-out party for the 2021 awards season. The rest of the Limited Series will just be happy to be amongst the nominees. 

Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actor
Hugh Grant – “The Undoing”
Ethan Hawke – “The Good Lord Bird”
Hugh Jackman – “Bad Education”
Chris Rock – “Fargo”
Mark Ruffalo – “I Know This Much Is True”

Most likely to surprise: Bryan Cranston – “Your Honor,” Jeff Daniels – “The Comey Rule” or Paul Mescal – “Normal People”

Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actress
Cate Blanchett – “Mrs. America”
Shira Haas – “Unorthodox”
Nicole Kidman – “The Undoing”
Anya Taylor- Joy – “The Queen’s Gambit”
Kerry Washington – “Little Fires Everywhere”

Most likely to surprise: Michaela Coel – “I May Destroy You,” Daisy Edgar-Jones – “Normal People” or Octavia Spencer – “Self Made”

The television Supporting categories combine all Limited Series, Television Movies, Drama and Comedy Series. Because these categories are jammed packed full of potential contenders, I make my predictions using a 2-2-1 strategy – two from Limited Series/TV Movies, two from Drama Series and one from a Comedy Series.

Best TV Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson -“The Comey Rule”
Dan Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Tobias Menzies – “The Crown
Tom Pelphrey – “Ozark”
Donald Sutherland – “The Undoing”

Most likely to surprise: Mahershala Ali – “Ramy,” John Boyega – “Small Axe” or Daveed Diggs – “The Good Lord Bird”

Best TV Supporting Actress
Uzo Aduba – “Mrs. America”
Gillian Anderson – “The Crown”
Julia Garner – “Ozark”
Marielle Heller – “The Queen’s Gambit”
Annie Murphy – “Schitt’s Creek”

Most likely to surprise: Jessie Buckley – “Fargo,” Helena Bonham Carter – “The Crown” or Hannah Waddingham – “Ted Lasso”

What do you think of my predictions? Let us know in the comments section below or on our Twitter account. Be sure to listen to our latest episode of Next Best Series here where we talked about our television predictions and stay tuned for the Next Best Picture Podcast episode detailing their film predictions later.

You can follow Amanda and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @msamandaspears

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