Now that we are starting to get into the thick of festival season, this year’s awards season is really beginning to come into focus. Beyond just getting to know if a film is well or poorly received, it’s good to know which actors or which crafts are standing out to most people, even just from the first samples of crowds who get access to these films. Obviously things can pick up and lose momentum throughout the season, but certain things are clearly going to last through the end of the year. With only a few films having premiered so far out of Venice, some things are still up in the air until other festivals see them; other things, however, already feel quite set.
Martin McDonagh’s latest, “Wild Horse Nine,” is one of these films that has already premiered. With an 80 Metacritic score, it is a bit lower than his last two Best Picture nominees, but high enough to still be a strong contender in the major categories. Will it get to the heights of acclaim and win potential of “The Banshees of Inisherin” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri?” It’s perhaps a little too early to say for sure; however, one clear thing is the absolute rave notices that John Malkovich is receiving in the lead role. The acclaim is strong enough that one has to consider whether he could win the Oscar, even as a lone win for the film.
McDonagh has been a miracle worker for actors in his last two films. With “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” he not only got the ensemble a win at SAG, but Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell both swept their respective categories that season, including winning the Oscars. “The Banshees of Inisherin” didn’t win anything at SAG or the Oscars; however, all four main actors got their first nominations at both, and Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon won BAFTAs for their respective performances. Not only is McDonagh a widely talented filmmaker who makes great films that dominate film conversation, but great roles that have a lot for these actors to chew on. With “Wild Horse Nine,” it seems he’s created two new great roles for John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, with the former of the two co-leads getting most of the buzz. The two play CIA agents, with Malkovich’s character suffering from Alzheimer’s, causing issues in their current mission. For an actor of his caliber, that sounds about as meaty a role as one can hope for, especially with dialogue from a poet like McDonagh.
Just like previous winner Rockwell, Malkovich is no stranger to awards season; however, it’s been quite a while since he’s been near it. He’s been nominated twice before for “Places in the Heart” and “In the Line of Fire,” the latter being over thirty years ago now. In the years since then, he certainly hasn’t been gone, with iconic films like “Being John Malkovich,” “Burn After Reading,” and even something like “Con Air” keeping him a very relevant actor. Is he an actor people feel is overdue for a win? That is surely a question that will be answered as the early season awards begin, especially relative to the competition that emerges in the category he competes in. In terms of quality, the material seems there for a potential win, and an actor as iconic as him is not hard to imagine people rallying behind to get his first statue.
The biggest hurdle for him winning in Lead Actor would be the competition. The role is there, the performance is there, and the excitement to reward the actor may be there, but he does seem to be competing in what very well may be the most competitive main category. The big contender on the block right now in Lead Actor is Matt Damon for “The Odyssey.” A different iconic movie star who’s yet to win an acting prize in the likely Best Picture winner is a tough hill to climb. Still, there’s a world where critics’ support for Malkovich and a lack of acting support for “The Odyssey” could help him persevere. The other contenders in this crowded category have yet to be seen; Tom Cruise for “Digger,” Pedro Pascal for “Behemoth!,” and Andrew Scott for “Elsinore” all could be winners, or just as easily be nothing at all. Once those all premiere, we will have a clearer perspective on the win race, but for right now we can view this as Malkovich versus Damon for the Best Actor Oscar. The edge may be toward Damon for the stronger film alone, but we have seen that break before, and hopefully we can see it break again for Malkovich.
The reason any mention of category placement has included an asterisk is that there is a very real possibility that Malkovich is pushed into Supporting Actor. By all accounts, he and Rockwell are clearly both leads, but if one goes into supporting, history shows it’ll be the showier and often the more overdue of the two performers. Either way, one will be pushed there, and it’ll be category fraud, but Malkovich in Supporting Actor would seem like a near slam dunk for securing a win if that were to happen. Given he has a fair shot at winning Lead Actor too, he may stay there, but the possibility of the change has to be brought up when discussing his chances.
With praise out of Venice and Telluride, “Wild Horse Nine” proves to be the strong contender it was expected to be all year. There’s a chance it could be McDonagh’s first Oscar for a feature film in Original Screenplay, and there’s a chance it will be John Malkovich’s first Academy Award. There’s a long season ahead of us, and a lot of eyes still need to see this film, as well as the other contenders it’s competing against. Still, for now we can allow ourselves to be excited by the potential of the new film from one of our great contemporary filmmakers.
Are you excited to see “Wild Horse Nine?” How do you think John Malkovich will factor into this year’s Best Actor race? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
