For the better part of a decade – and well before that – HBO has been the undisputed king of the Emmys. The premium cable network led all platforms in primetime wins in 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, and settled for nothing worse than a tie in 2016 (with FX), 2018 (with Netflix), and 2025 (with Netflix again). The only two years it’s been usurped at the Primetime Emmy Awards were 2021, when Netflix’s “The Crown” swept the drama categories, and 2024, when FX’s “Shōgun” and “The Bear” dominated the drama and comedy categories. That kind of sustained dominance doesn’t happen by accident. HBO has built its awards machine show by show, era by era – from the dragon-fueled spectacle of “Game of Thrones” to the sharp political satire of “Veep,” the haunting prestige of “Chernobyl,” the dynastic complexity of “Succession,” and the sun-drenched menace of “The White Lotus.” The network has found winners not just in one genre, but across Outstanding Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series alike, making it nearly impossible for any rival to outflank it on all fronts at once. Behind the trophy hauls is an equally formidable awards campaign operation; the kind of sustained, strategic push that keeps Emmy voters engaged from nominations through the final ballot. With that track record in mind, the question heading into this season is a compelling one: where does HBO focus its firepower next, and which shows does it choose to champion?
In Drama, there’s no surprise HBO has a hit on their hands with “The Pitt.” Last year, it cleaned up with wins in Outstanding Drama Series, Lead Actor (Noah Wyle), Supporting Actress (Katherine LaNasa), Guest Actor (Shawn Hatosy), and Casting. It’ll likely push for those nominations (and wins) again this year, and support additional Supporting Actor contenders in Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell, and Supporting Actresses in Isa Briones, Supriya Ganesh, Sepideh Moafi, and/or Taylor Dearden. There’s been talk of HBO submitting Katherine LaNasa in the Lead Actress category this year. Still, with such stiff competition from Rhea Seehorn from Apple’s priority of “Pluribus” and Keri Russell from Netflix’s “The Diplomat,“ plus a few singular nominations from other HBO shows, I suspect they’ll keep LaNasa in Supporting and go for the easy win. The network will likely support campaigns behind Outstanding Directing and Writing as well, pushing for the BTL wins from their new Emmy darling.
Other dramas they have to consider putting campaign support behind are the long-awaited new season of “Euphoria,“ the hit limited-turned-drama series “Task,“ sleeper hit “The Gilded Age,“ criminally overlooked “Industry,“ and newcomer “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.“ With “Euphoria“ reviews panned, I anticipate support for only Zendaya, a 2x winner for this role, in the Lead Actress category, competing with Rhea Seehorn and Keri Russell. Carrie Coon’s nomination for “The White Lotus“ last year may help propel her to a Lead Actress in a Drama nomination this year for “The Gilded Age.” Still, the show missed out on SAG Ensemble this year and failed to land any series nominations outside of Coon, so I predict the network support to remain singular with Coon. “Task“ has been critically acclaimed, widely seen, and features big names in front of the camera (Mark Ruffalo and Tom Pelphrey) and behind with creator Brad Inglesby of “Mare of Easttown“ fame, which makes it an early lead contender for an Outstanding Drama Series, Lead, and Supporting Actor nominations. I’m less confident in BTL support for this show, however, as it has made little mark on the winter awards circuit. I anticipate HBO to put their support behind these three campaigns, with Writing and Directing on shaky ground. And with so many priorities listed above in Drama, I see “Industry“ and “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms“getting the short end of the stick. “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms“ has the residual love from “Game of Thrones“ to lean on, so there’s a chance Peter Claffey, Outstanding Writing and Directing, will be shown some love, but I don’t anticipate it getting much more attention from HBO than that. Campaign dollars are not infinite, and with juggernauts in “The Pitt,“ Brad Inglesby’s new creation, and a name and previous winner like Zendaya all in play, that leaves little room for spreading the love in the Drama categories.
Comedy, on the other hand, is a little more black-and-white. We’re bidding farewell to critics’ and audience favorite “Hacks” after five seasons and 12 Primetime Emmy wins, and I expect it to go out with a bang at the Emmys. With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and no competition from “The Studio” this year, but some solidly good TV encroaching on it’s campaigns with “Shrinking” and “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” HBO will likely pull out all stops to get “Hacks” it’s deserved nominations (and some wins) across Outstanding Comedy Series, Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Directing, Writing, and perhaps a Guest role or two. But what muddies the waters a bit on “Hacks‘” generational run is the triumphant return of Lisa Kudrow in “The Comeback.“ Nominated for the first two seasons in 2006 and 2015, she will most certainly be nominated and, depending on how either show’s season lands, could be a spoiler for Jean Smart’s run. I do see HBO providing support for the entire season, with potential Outstanding Comedy Series, Writing, and Directing nominations, as it’s been critically well-received and has returned with much fanfare. Falling into distant third and fourth place in the priority rankings are Bill Lawrence’s “Rooster“ and Tim Robinson’s “The Chair Company.“While Lawrence is a familiar face at the Emmys, his support will likely go to Apple’s phenomenal third season of “Shrinking.“ Steve Carell has the narrative of never winning an Emmy for his time as Michael Scott on “The Office” (seriously…how?), so HBO will likely campaign him in their otherwise empty slate of Lead Actor in a Comedy lineup. But that’s not to discount the absurdly hilarious Tim Robinson in the same category. Without as much buzz, “The Chair Company“ has had a bit of staying power since its October premiere, but will likely fall to the wayside in favor of Carell and “Rooster“ and a handful of name-worthy supporting cast members from Lawrence’s new dramedy.
And lastly, the limited HBO category is a bit sparse this year. Everyone is anxiously awaiting “Half Man,“ Richard Gadd’s sophomore follow-up to the much-lauded “Baby Reindeer“ over on Netflix. One would assume HBO is hoping for a similar haul to “Baby Reindeer,” which took in six nominations and three wins. The top billing this season for “Half Man“is Richard Gadd and Jamie Bell, and in addition to Writing, Directing, and Limited Series, we could assume HBO will throw their support behind these two Lead and Supporting Actors. The other offering in HBO’s Limited categories is “DTF St. Louis.“ With a trio of stars across David Harbour, Jason Bateman, and Linda Cardellini, there are plenty of eyes on this show and the performances. A bit of a slow burn, the writing and directing are strong and could warrant a few nominations for Steven Conrad. While Jason Bateman is competing against himself in this category for Netflix’s “Black Rabbit,“ David Harbour has been the series’s standout star and likely frontrunner in campaign support. In Outstanding Limited Series, we can assume “Beef“ and “Love Story“ will get in, and barring any panned reviews, “Half Man“ will as well. That leaves two slots left, and a fight between Peacock’s “All Her Fault,” Netflix’s “The Beast in Me,” “Death by Lightning,” “Lord of the Flies,“ and “Black Rabbit,“ and HBO’s “DTF St. Louis.“ Right now, it’s almost anyone’s game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any two make the cut.
HBO has always had the burden and the blessing of a deep bench of priorities for the Emmys. A few are easy sells as category leads (“The Pitt“ and “Hacks“ will likely win many), a few newcomers to throw their support behind (“Half Man“ and “Task“ will probably be in the mix with a handful of nods each), and an impressive lineup waiting in the wings to snatch any opening available. One thing is for certain, though: we’ll be seeing a lot of HBO again at the Emmys.
DRAMA PRIORITIES RANKED: “The Pitt,” “Task,” Zendaya for “Euphoria,” Carrie Coon for “The Gilded Age,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” & “Industry“
COMEDY PRIORITIES RANKED: “Hacks,” “The Comeback,” “Rooster” & “The Chair Company”
LIMITED PRIORITIES RANKED: “Half Man” & “DTF St. Louis”
What do you think HBO will prioritize this year? What are your early-season Emmy frontrunners? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
