It might be shocking to the non-theater kids out there, but despite being the second-highest-grossing and fourth-longest-running show on Broadway, “Wicked” is not technically a Tony Award winner for Best Musical. Sure, it’s a Tony Award-winning production, but “Wicked” only won three out of its ten nominations (Best Actress in a Musical for Idina Menzel, Best Scenic Design, and Best Costume Design). And while it’s unfair to compare the Tony Awards to film awards, the “above the line” categories – like Best Book of a Musical, Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics), and Best Musical – went to “Avenue Q” instead twenty years ago. As time has passed, history has had the final say, with “Avenue Q” eventually moving to Off-Broadway and closing in 2019 while “Wicked” continues to sell out the biggest theater in New York. The property of “Wicked” may not have the title of being the “best” of the year. However, twenty-one years after its Broadway opening, history has the opportunity to change that with this year’s Oscars.
After over a decade of production limbo, “Wicked” has finally been adapted to the screen. Well, at least the first part of it. At the time of this writing, the film is on its way to becoming a major box office success, having grossed $194 million so far. With the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and the soundtrack currently climbing the charts and trending all over social media, it’s apparent “Wicked” or “Wicked: Part One” will continue its rise as a box office hit for 2024. Additionally, it’s also a critical success. At the time of this writing, it has an A CinemaScore, a 90% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 4.1 average on Letterboxd. “Wicked” is going to be one of the biggest films of the year, and while the Best Picture lineup of ten nominated films usually reserves at least one spot for a box office hit, which we have been saving for “Dune: Part Two,” it can be argued that there is enough room for both this awards season.
Comparing the two films, “Dune: Part Two” will satisfy the “Box Office genre” film. Some might say “Wicked” will suffer from some genre bias, resulting in voters splitting between the two, but you can argue against that notion. Again, “Wicked” is a cultural phenomenon, one of the rare Broadway musicals to escape Midtown Manhattan and seep into the cultural zeitgeist. Even if you haven’t been to theater-populated cities like New York, London, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc, you likely still know the songs. People know “Popular,” “Defying Gravity,” and “For Good.” Additionally, audiences and voters are keenly aware of “The Wizard of Oz” and the legacy of that 1939 classic film. These notions, combined with the fact that while movie musicals have been nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture, a musical has not won the Academy’s top prize since “Chicago” in 2002 (before “Wicked” was even an official show).
The last time a musical had a real shot at winning Best Picture was in 2016 with Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land,” funnily enough, it was also an election year that saw Donald Trump elected president. It’s safe to assume that the recent election results will sway voters, especially on a preferential ballot with the Best Picture category. While some films’ chances may be hurt due to the election, “Wicked” will probably benefit from this unfortunate turn of events. Yes, “Wicked” is a major studio blockbuster musical with a lot of colorful singing and dancing and escapism, but “Wicked” is also highly political in its story and themes: the world of Oz is and will always be a rooted commentary on American politics, much like how Wonderland in “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland” is a commentary on England’s culture (that makes one go mad) through the eyes of a little girl. The main difference between the two pieces is that Wonderland attempts to make its inhabitants, well, go mad. There’s an absurdist, psychedelic, and fluidness to “Wonderland,” whereas Oz is more shiny.
Oz is about distractions and the power of illusion. Throughout her journey, the hero (Dorothy in “The Wizard of Oz” and Elphaba in “Wicked“) figures out everything is not what it seems in Oz, and power is corrupt. In “Wicked,” Elphaba discovers that the man in charge of her world is pretending to be someone he’s not. He’s not powerful, he’s not wonderful, he’s not magical. He’s not even from Oz. It’s all an act. In order to keep his power, he is slowly stripping the rights of citizens who look different (the animals of Oz), creating a majority that is complacent in these horrors because it benefits them and puts them at a higher level in the social hierarchy. Elphaba (and Glinda) realize that everything they know about the Wizard is propaganda. When Elphaba goes against the Wizard, he attacks her and later vilifies her as a “Wicked Witch.”
The gilded nature of these themes is present in L. Frank Blaum’s original books, the 1939 film, and Gregory Maguire’s 1995 novel. And now, they’re being shown through the spectacle of a musical. “Wicked” provides its audience with both escapism and hard-hitting truth, which is evident throughout the entire film. Take the number “Popular,” for example, which features Ariana Grande’s Glinda, in a full pink and bubbly dress, laughing and giving Cynthia Erivo’s Elphaba a make-over while singing: “When I see depressing creatures / With unprepossessing features / I remind them on their own behalf to think of / Celebrate heads of state / Or especially great communicators / Did they have brains or knowledge?/ Don’t make me laugh.” “Wicked” is a perfect mix of shiny spectacle and political and social relevance. It’s something we haven’t seen in a movie-musical since “Cabaret.” And isn’t that what the Oscars are always looking to reward? A commercial product with more on its mind than simply seeking to entertain? When art and commerce can intersect, it gives all in Hollywood the feel-good energy to pat themselves on the back and believe that they, too, can create such beloved films that merge the two.
Some are already predicting “Wicked” might win the Oscar for Best Picture (no one from Next Best Picture is, as of today, personally predicting this). While many may scoff at that idea, I personally think awarding “Wicked” Best Picture would be fantastic for movie musicals and crowd-pleasing films in general, but it’s also an opportunity to award the property that has never been bestowed a “Best of the Year” title in any of its incarnations. The Broadway musical didn’t receive this recognition, but also neither did “The Wizard of Oz,” as it didn’t win the Oscar for Best Picture when it was nominated in 1940 (the Oscar was instead awarded to Victor Fleming’s other 1939 production, “Gone with the Wind”). “Wicked” checks that particular box for voters who want to vote for a blockbuster that proves that their industry is not failing financially, that provides escapism through sheer entertainment, and offers a prominent message to fight against corruption during unprecedented times, which makes it, to me, a serious across-the-board contender for more than just the craft categories at the 97th Academy Awards. As of today, the Next Best Picture Team currently has “Wicked” predicted to receive the following Oscar nominations across the team’s consensus of predictions:
Best Picture (No. 6)
Best Actress (Just outside the consensus 5 at No. 7)
Best Supporting Actress (No. 2)
Best Costume Design (Predicted to win)
Best Production Design (Predicted to win)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling (No. 4)
Best Sound (No. 2)
Best Visual Effects (No. 4)
So what do you think? How many Oscar nominations do you think “Wicked” will receive? Do you think it will win Best Picture? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
