The global box office fired on all cylinders over the Thanksgiving weekend. “Wicked,” “Gladiator II,” and “Moana 2” fueled the biggest Thanksgiving weekend of all time. While everyone debated whether “Glicked” would create another “Barbenheimer,” it was actually “Moana 2” that led the pack over Thanksgiving. Disney’s animated sequel shattered multiple records with its $221 million domestic haul, including the biggest opening for any animated film ever. With such a stellar box office total, could “Moana 2” overcome tepid reviews to find purchase in this year’s awards race?
Most awards prognosticators seem to agree on a set of five contenders for Best Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot,” “Inside Out 2,” “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl,” “Flow,” and “Memoir of a Snail.” While other films like “Ultraman: Rising” and “Chicken For Linda!” have cases to be made for a nomination, the awards buzz thus far has centered mainly on these five films. But now, after a record-smashing holiday week, there’s certainly a lot of buzz and press around “Moana 2,” just as many awards bodies face approaching deadlines. This well-timed release could give it a solid bump, especially when up against much smaller films like “Flow” and “Memoir of a Snail.”
But is big box office enough to give “Moana 2” a leg up for a nomination? Not necessarily. Of the top ten highest-grossing animated films of all time before 2024 (excluding “The Lion King” (2019), which wasn’t campaigned for Best Animated Feature), five received nominations for Best Animated Feature, and five did not. Notably, of those nominated, four eventually won the Oscar. Still, it’s a mixed bag of results.
Many argued that the Academy has a sequel bias after “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” lost the Oscar last year. Does that give us a clearer picture of the barriers facing “Moana 2?” While there may be some truth to that when it comes to winning the Oscar, the evidence doesn’t back up the claim for nominations. While “Toy Story” remains the only franchise to score wins for sequels, plenty of sequels have picked up attention from the Academy. Sequels have received nominations in six of the last ten years in Best Animated Feature. And yet, “Frozen II” is the closest comparison to “Moana 2.” At the time of its release, “Frozen II” became the highest-grossing animated film of all time and also a Thanksgiving release. Much like this year, 2019 was an abnormally crowded year for animated features, with strong contenders like “Toy Story 4,” “How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” and “Klaus,” along with foreign contenders such as “I Lost My Body” and “Weathering With You.” Despite solid reviews and a commanding box office, “Frozen II” failed to receive a nomination for Best Animated Feature. To this day, it’s a surprising snub.
Interestingly, the song “Into the Unknown” from “Frozen II” did score a nomination for Best Original Song, losing to “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman.” Even though “Moana 2” faces an uphill battle in Best Animated Feature, could a song like “Beyond” propel it into the Best Original Song race? While it could easily make the shortlist for the category, too many critics have negatively compared the songs to Lin-Manuel Miranda’s songs from the first film. They are a notable step down, which won’t go unnoticed by the songwriters branch, especially when Miranda is still in the competition this year for his songs from “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
Nevertheless, the reviews pose the greatest threat to “Moana 2’s” awards chances. While the box office will undoubtedly keep the sequel in the conversation over the next few weeks, the mixed reviews won’t endear it to voting bodies, especially those made up of critics. The last Best Animated Feature nominee to have a Rotten Tomatoes score below 70% was “The Boss Baby” back in 2017. “Moana 2” currently sits at 64%. Perhaps with stronger reviews, the film could’ve been a more formidable contender.
It’s tough to imagine a case to be made for “Moana 2” breaking into the assumed five nominees this year, but surprises do happen. Perhaps “Flow” or “Memoir of a Snail” are beloved more by critics than Academy voters or are simply underseen. Or perhaps Netflix’s campaign to get “Ultraman: Rising” more into the conversation will prove effective. Even as “Moana 2” will likely continue to hit with audiences over the next few weeks, it’s unlikely to crash the awards party this year.
So what do you think? Do you think “Moana 2” will be able to ride the wave of its box office success to the Oscars? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
