The 2024 Toronto International Film Festival will kick off with the world premiere of “Nutcrackers,” director David Gordon Green’s return to his indie roots after several years spent helming Blumhouse horror sequels. Not only that, but the film will also function as the first Ben Stiller star vehicle in seven years. Clearly, this is a momentous cinematic occasion involving two artists finally returning to a side of the silver screen they used to dominate. Given that “Nutcrackers” will kick off a prestigious event like TIFF, it’s worth asking whether this could finally be the David Gordon Green film to receive some Oscar recognition.
In 2000, Green’s debut feature, “George Washington,” hit theaters. It began a string of indie efforts that eventually led him to helm mainstream R-rated comedies like “The Pineapple Express” and “The Sitter.” In that formative first decade of filmmaking, awards recognition, even at more niche ceremonies, eluded Green. However, “George Washington” scored Best Feature and First Screenplay nominations at the Film Independent Spirit Awards, while Green won a Special Jury Prize for “All the Real Girls” in 2003. Despite this, he wasn’t a fixture in end-of-the-year awards ceremonies such as the Oscars, BAFTAs, or Golden Globes.
Even when Green switched to higher-profile adult dramas released at the heart of awards season, they ended up going nowhere. “Stronger” was a perfect example of this, with that Jake Gyllenhaal star vehicle securing lots of acclaim and appearing like a shoo-in for a Best Actor Oscar nomination. It would get overlooked in that category and for most other Best Actor nominations in the 2017-2018 awards season circuit. In that same decade, a smattering of small critics organizations lauded “Prince Avalanche” and “Joe” with some nominations, but they were by no means fixtures of the Oscar race. Green’s movies could get widespread acclaim, but scoring major awards nominations has been a tricky challenge for his idiosyncratic works.
Then again, the same could be said for many other distinctive artists working in the indie film space. They may not have been Oscar darlings until, suddenly, one day, the Academy took notice. For example, Yorgos Lanthimos toiled away in the indies for roughly a decade before his script for “The Lobster” secured him his first Oscar nomination. His subsequent films have become fixtures of the Oscars. Green doesn’t have an immensely deep awards season track record from which “Nutcrackers” can pull, but you never know when an indie director is about to leap to the next level of awards notoriety.
It’s also worth asking whether or not leading man Ben Stiller can help this feature grab some awards attention. In his time as a performer, Stiller has never been an “Oscar darling” or anything close to it. Why would he? His mainstream comedies were never made for awards season recognition. Titles like “Starsky & Hutch” or “The Watch” were meant to clog up discount DVD bins at Wal-Mart and make college stoners laugh. Unsurprisingly, this means his awards season track record is incredibly sparse, save for a Best Male Lead nomination in 2011 at the Independent Spirit Awards for “Greenberg.”
Even more dramatic forays from Stiller – like “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty” – went nowhere with Academy voters. However, since his hiatus from film acting, Stiller has steadily made a comeback as a dramatic television director. Programs like “Escape at Dannemora” and “Severance” scored widespread acclaim and awards nominations for the now 58-year-old director. He won an Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or TV Movie award at the Director’s Guild of America awards for his work on “Escape at Dannemora.” The Oscars never beckoned Stiller, but equivalent awards for television have recognized his resurging artistic skills.
Could those directorial efforts tweak Stiller’s image enough to make the actor a positive commodity for “Nutcrackers?” It’s certainly possible. Plus, this being Stiller’s first lead acting role in nearly a decade could have awards season voters feeling like “absence makes the heart grow fonder.” In the past, Stiller might have immediately followed up an acclaimed indie drama with a mainstream comedy that diluted people’s opinions of his acting skills. With no such project on the horizon that could distract from “Nutcrackers,” awards season voters may appreciate seeing Stiller in a film again, especially one that isn’t a “normal” Stiller vehicle.
But what about that TIFF opener wrinkle? Does that immediately indicate that “Nutcrackers” may not have enough artistic potential to score Oscar love? The track record of past TIFF opening films suggests it’s impossible to tell right away. In 2017 and 2018, “Borg vs McEnroe” and “Outlaw King,” respectively, opened TIFF, and neither went on to become awards darlings. Infamously, “Dear Evan Hansen” opened TIFF in 2021 before becoming a pop culture punchline and an awards season no-show. By contrast, last year’s TIFF opening film was “The Boy and the Heron,” which won the Best Animated Feature Oscar.
These historical precedents suggest it’s a total crapshoot whether or not a TIFF opening film becomes an awards season sensation. Right now, “Nutcrackers” is a total wild card regarding how it could play into the 2024-2025 awards season, especially since it currently has no domestic distributor. It may not even get released in time for the 97th Academy Awards, and it may get held over by an indie studio acquirer for a spring 2025 bow. However, enough well-known and unpredictable elements are at play that one can’t discount “Nutcrackers” entirely. There’s a timeline where Green and Stiller’s significant return to indie cinema inspires so much passion that this quiet little title becomes an unexpected awards season mainstay.
Do you think David Gordon Green or Ben Stiller has a chance at Oscar nominations? What’s your favorite film of their’s? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out their latest Oscar nomination predictions here.
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