“Fjord,” “La Bola Negra,” “All of a Sudden,” “Minotaur,” “Fatherland” and “Coward” all won big prizes at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, with Cristian Mungiu taking home his second Palme d’Or, extending NEON’s streak that, for many years, has successfully crossed over into the Oscar race. But despite the Academy’s votership becoming increasingly international, these films still have more to prove come fall festival season, which kicks off this week with the Venice International Film Festival on September 2nd.
Unlike last year, where “Sentimental Value” was discussed as the buzziest Cannes title (and alas, wound up with an impressive nine nominations at the end of the day), it remains unclear which of this year’s Cannes winners will be the biggest contenders. And once again, top indie distributors NEON and MUBI are in the mix, hoping to not only land their titles in the best international feature race, but across the board.
“Fjord,” which stars previous Oscar nominees Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan, has the most going in its favor on paper, but winning the Palme far from guarantees a best picture nomination (just look at last year’s “It Was Just an Accident,” which still scored two nods elsewhere). Ryusuke Hamaguchi is hoping to repeat his “Drive My Car” Oscar success with “All of a Sudden,” which took home the Cannes prize for best actress (shared by Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto), while “Cold War” director Paweł Pawlikowski has a new European drama, “Fatherland,” which tied for the best director prize with Netflix hopeful “La Bola Negra.”
Of all the prestigious fall festivals, from Venice, Telluride to the Toronto International Film Festival, TIFF is considered the most audience-friendly of the bunch. That’s largely because every year, festivalgoers (made up of locals in addition to press and industry leaders) have the opportunity to vote in the TIFF People’s Choice Award, often a strong bellwether for what films will be strong Oscar contenders (unless you’re “The Life of Chuck” and release the next calendar year). In previous years, “Emilia Pérez” and “Parasite” placing in the Top 3 were great signals that they had broad appeal beyond Cannes and could play well to more mainstream audiences.
The big test for “Fjord,” which has received praise from critics but has also been described as cold and challenging, will be how it performs at TIFF and the New York Film Festival before it releases in theaters on October 9th (a similar release slot that NEON gave to “Anora,” which won best picture after its own Palme win in 2024). “All of a Sudden,” set to play TIFF and NYFF, could emerge as a major Oscar contender with a strong critics’ push, but it remains to be seen whether audiences will respond to its lengthy 196-minute runtime.
It’s worth noting, however, that not all Cannes films have a heavy presence at TIFF. And that’s by design. Like previous films “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest,” both “Fjord” and “All of a Sudden” have limited screening options at TIFF, with “Fjord” currently only scheduled for three screenings (last-minute additions aren’t out of the question, though). That strategy helps keep these films hot and in-demand.
Since many people left Cannes by the time “La Bola Negra” premiered, that film has the most to gain by placing at TIFF since it was such a last-minute surprise. Netflix has a history of landing double-digit nominations for big international contenders, from “Roma” to “Emilia Pérez” to “All Quiet on the Western Front.” With the streamer giving “La Bola Negra” an unprecedented 47-day theatrical run, it’s clear that they see potential gold with this ambitious, decades-spanning queer drama.
Meanwhile, MUBI has “Minotaur,” “Fatherland” and “Coward” as formidable contenders. Pawlikowski asserted himself as a clear favorite of the Academy’s directors branch with “Cold War,” and his black-and-white films (including “Ida”) consistently land in the best cinematography category. Lukas Dhont’s World War I drama won the Cannes best actor prize (shared jointly by Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne) and will have its North American premiere at TIFF. Andrey Zvyagintsev’s “Minotaur” looks to be MUBI’s biggest play, though, since it won the runner-up jury prize at Cannes. Both “Minotaur” and “Fatherland” will play NYFF, suggesting MUBI is positioning these films as highbrow.
To add more factors to the complicated mix, last year TIFF added a separate People’s Choice Award for international films, although it remains to be seen how strong a bellwether it truly is. Last year’s winner was “No Other Choice,” which was famously snubbed across the board come Oscar morning despite placing above “Sentimental Value” at TIFF.
If you are a clear critics’ favorite like “The Secret Agent” or “Drive My Car,” that alone can push you to the top of the pack. But more often than not, international films that perform well with Academy voters have broad appeal with both critics and audiences. Think of films that you can recommend to your parents, or your grandparents.
In a year poised to be dominated by major blockbusters and box office hits like “The Odyssey,” “Project Hail Mary” and perhaps even “Obsession,” these international contenders will have to prove that they can play well in multiple different rooms. And that starts on the fall festival circuit.
Do you believe any of these Cannes award-winners will be Best Picture contenders? Which films are you currently predicting for Best Picture before the fall film festivals begin? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
